Dying on ImpactEst. 2021 · 2026 season

Week 6 boardUpdated Tue, Oct 20 · Weeks 7–17

Week 6 Player Board: Hockenson's Release Lifts the TE Bar to 18.5, Malik Nabers Jumps to 21

All 140 rostered players valued for Weeks 7–17. T.J. Hockenson's release makes the best free-agent TE worth 18.5 a game, which drops every tight end but Bowers, McBride, Likely, LaPorta and Kittle to replacement level or below. Malik Nabers rises from 17.5 to 21 after three straight 25-point games, Davante Adams is out Weeks 7–12, Jalen Hurts is on IR with a blood clot, and Josh Jacobs is back from the exempt list at 14.5. How it works

Replacement (best free agent, pts/week): QB 8.4 · RB 11.7 · WR 13.7 · TE 18.5 · K 10.3

  1. 1WRJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · @SettytsHold28.0+0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 26.1, likely 17.2–32.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–41.5
    2. Week 8: expected 29.0, likely 19.1–35.6, 10th–90th percentile 8.7–46
    3. Week 9: expected 30.0, likely 19.8–36.9, 10th–90th percentile 9–47.6
    4. Week 10: expected 28.8, likely 19–35.4, 10th–90th percentile 8.6–45.8
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 27.3, likely 18–33.6, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–43.4
    7. Week 13: expected 30.2, likely 19.9–37.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–48
    8. Week 14: expected 28.4, likely 18.7–34.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.5–45.1
    9. Week 15: expected 27.2, likely 17.9–33.4, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–43.2
    10. Week 16: expected 26.5, likely 17.5–32.6, 10th–90th percentile 8–42.2
    11. Week 17: expected 27.1, likely 17.9–33.3, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–43.1
    Points by week, 0–50. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 28.25, and he's at 30.2 ppg with only one game under 24, still the best WR on the board by almost five points a game. He's the center of Seattle's passing game. Week 11 is his bye, and the playoff weeks project about 27 each. FantasyCalc's 10222 is the top WR price and deserved; Settyts should only move him for an overpay.

    Why not the projection (27.1) 28 vs Sleeper's 27.1: he's at 30.2 ppg through six games; we stay a bit under that for regression.

    What changed ppg 27.5 to 28 after another 28-point game. Replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts his value above replacement, but he stays Tier 3 and WR1.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    25.5
    Above repl.
    +11.8
    Wks 15–17
    26.9
    Games
    10
    WALLAHI on the Beat →
  2. 2WRPuka NacuaLAR · @skollurHold26.0+0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 26.7, likely 17.6–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 8–42.4
    2. Week 8: expected 26.2, likely 17.3–32.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–41.7
    3. Week 9: expected 28.3, likely 18.7–34.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.5–45
    4. Week 10: expected 27.9, likely 18.4–34.4, 10th–90th percentile 8.4–44.4
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 25.4, likely 16.8–31.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.6–40.4
    7. Week 13: expected 23.9, likely 15.8–29.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–38
    8. Week 14: expected 24.2, likely 16–29.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–38.5
    9. Week 15: expected 27.4, likely 18.1–33.6, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–43.5
    10. Week 16: expected 23.8, likely 15.7–29.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–37.8
    11. Week 17: expected 26.2, likely 17.3–32.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–41.6
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 6 catches on 7 targets for 80 yards (15.3) in the 18-16 loss to Arizona, with a 45-yard catch wiped out by a penalty (source: cbssports.com). The bigger news is that Davante Adams got hurt late in that game and McVay says he'll miss 6-10 weeks (source: nbcsports.com), so Puka is the only proven receiver Stafford has into December. The math puts him at the top of Tier 4 with the Week 11 bye; we move him to Tier 3 for the target share Adams leaves. FantasyCalc's 8741 is fair; skollur holds.

    Why not the projection (24.4) 26 vs Sleeper's 24.4: he's at 25.3 ppg and Adams' targets go to him for at least six weeks.

    What changed Tier 4 to 3 and ppg 25.5 to 26: Adams is out 6-10 weeks, and replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts every WR's value.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    23.6
    Above repl.
    +9.9
    Wks 15–17
    25.8
    Games
    10
    JSN’s backpack →
  3. 3WRAmon-Ra St. BrownDET · @skollurHold22.0-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 22.2, likely 14.7–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–35.4
    2. Week 8: expected 19.9, likely 11.5–26.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.8
    3. Week 9: expected 24.5, likely 16.2–30.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–39
    4. Week 10: expected 21.3, likely 14–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–33.8
    5. Week 11: expected 22.7, likely 15–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–36.1
    6. Week 12: expected 22.5, likely 14.9–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–35.8
    7. Week 13: expected 21.4, likely 14.1–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–34
    8. Week 14: expected 23.1, likely 15.3–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–36.8
    9. Week 15: expected 19.9, likely 11.6–26.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.9
    10. Week 16: expected 22.0, likely 14.5–27, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–35
    11. Week 17: expected 22.6, likely 14.9–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–35.9
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Detroit had its bye in Week 6, so nothing changed: he's at 22.0 ppg, with two quiet games (16.9, 12.25) before the bye after a 29.7 and 38.65 start. He led Detroit with 11 targets in Week 5, and with his bye behind him he's projected every remaining week, including about 20-22.5 in the playoffs. FantasyCalc's 8017 is about right; skollur holds.

    What changed ppg 22.5 to 22 to match his 22.0 season average. Replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which moves him into the middle of Tier 4 from its bottom edge.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    22.0
    Above repl.
    +8.3
    Wks 15–17
    21.5
    Games
    11
    JSN’s backpack →
  4. 4WRCeeDee LambDAL · @arireddyBuy24.0-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 22.5, likely 14.9–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–35.8
    2. Week 8: expected 26.1, likely 17.2–32.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–41.5
    3. Week 9: expected 24.5, likely 16.2–30.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–38.9
    4. Week 10: expected 23.3, likely 15.4–28.7, 10th–90th percentile 7–37
    5. Week 11: expected 25.7, likely 17–31.6, 10th–90th percentile 7.7–40.9
    6. Week 12: expected 23.2, likely 15.3–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–36.8
    7. Week 13: expected 22.9, likely 15.1–28.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–36.5
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected
    9. Week 15: expected 22.7, likely 15–28, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–36.2
    10. Week 16: expected 24.3, likely 16–29.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–38.7
    11. Week 17: expected 24.5, likely 16.2–30.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–39
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He played through the quad bruise and drew 18 targets, catching 9 for 70 yards (17.45) in the 23-13 loss at Green Bay (source: draftsharks.com). That's the volume of a top-three WR in a 2-4 team that has to throw, and he's at 23.9 ppg. Week 14 is Dallas's bye, the only blemish on the playoff run. FantasyCalc's 7633 sits below Chase (8456); buy from arireddy.

    Why not the projection (20.9) 24 vs Sleeper's 20.9: he's at 23.9 ppg and got 18 targets in his first game back from the bruise.

    What changed ppg 24.5 to 24 after a 17.45 on 18 targets; replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which keeps him in Tier 4 with more room above the line.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    21.8
    Above repl.
    +8.1
    Wks 15–17
    23.8
    Games
    10
    dogwater →
  5. 5WRJa'Marr ChaseCIN · @ShukySell20.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 20.7, likely 13.7–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–33
    2. Week 8: expected 21.0, likely 13.9–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.4
    3. Week 9: expected 19.5, likely 11.3–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–33.1
    4. Week 10: expected 20.3, likely 13.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–32.2
    5. Week 11: expected 21.7, likely 14.3–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.5
    6. Week 12: expected 20.1, likely 13.2–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6–31.9
    7. Week 13: expected 19.2, likely 11.1–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.7
    8. Week 14: expected 18.9, likely 10.9–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–32.1
    9. Week 15: expected 18.9, likely 11–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–32.2
    10. Week 16: expected 20.0, likely 13.2–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6–31.9
    11. Week 17: expected 19.9, likely 11.5–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.8
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Cincinnati had its bye in Week 6. He's at 17.1 ppg with two games under 7 (3.55, 6.1), and Burrow's passing volume hasn't supported two receivers the way it used to. At 20 he's about 6 a week above a free agent, the bottom of Tier 4. FantasyCalc's 8456 still prices him above Lamb and next to Puka, which his 2026 production hasn't earned. Shuky should sell.

    Why not the projection (20.5) 20 vs Sleeper's 20.5: he's at 17.1 ppg; we give him some credit for the ceiling but not Sleeper's full number.

    What changed Tier 5 to 4: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him over the Tier 4 line; our view of him didn't change.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    20.0
    Above repl.
    +6.3
    Wks 15–17
    19.6
    Games
    11
    To infinity and bijan →
  6. 6WRChris OlaveNO · @somickeyBuy21.0-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 20.7, likely 13.6–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–32.9
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 20.1, likely 13.3–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6–31.9
    4. Week 10: expected 19.7, likely 11.5–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.6
    5. Week 11: expected 21.6, likely 14.3–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.4
    6. Week 12: expected 21.8, likely 14.4–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.6
    7. Week 13: expected 21.2, likely 14–26, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.6
    8. Week 14: expected 19.8, likely 11.5–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.7
    9. Week 15: expected 21.8, likely 14.4–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.7
    10. Week 16: expected 22.6, likely 14.9–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–35.9
    11. Week 17: expected 20.4, likely 13.5–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–32.5
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 15.0 in the 34-27 win over the Giants, another solid game on a Saints team that throws. He's at 21.1 ppg with four games over 21 in six. Week 8 is New Orleans' bye. FantasyCalc's 5335 is about what Nabers costs and well under Chase; for the WR on our board with the steadiest volume after Lamb, buy.

    Why not the projection (19.4) 21 vs Sleeper's 19.4: he's at 21.1 ppg on double-digit targets most weeks.

    What changed ppg 21.5 to 21 to match his 21.1 average; replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which keeps him in Tier 5 with a bigger margin.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    19.1
    Above repl.
    +5.4
    Wks 15–17
    21.6
    Games
    10
    somickey →
  7. 7WRMalik NabersNYG · @sishaarHold21.0+3.5
    1. Week 7: expected 20.3, likely 13.4–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–32.3
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 19.7, likely 11.4–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.4
    4. Week 10: expected 23.3, likely 15.3–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 7–37
    5. Week 11: expected 20.9, likely 13.8–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.3
    6. Week 12: expected 21.0, likely 13.9–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.4
    7. Week 13: expected 19.8, likely 11.5–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.6
    8. Week 14: expected 19.3, likely 11.2–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.9
    9. Week 15: expected 19.8, likely 11.5–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.7
    10. Week 16: expected 22.9, likely 15.1–28.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–36.4
    11. Week 17: expected 23.2, likely 15.3–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 7–37
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 12 catches for 165 yards and two TDs (31.85) in the 34-27 loss to New Orleans, his third straight game over 25 (source: si.com). Jameis Winston was benched for J.J. McCarthy after two interceptions, and Nabers produced with both. Week 8 is the Giants' bye. We raise him to 21, Tier 5; the QB change is the risk. FantasyCalc's 5340 is now fair; sishaar holds.

    Why not the projection (16.2) 21 vs Sleeper's 16.2: three straight games of 25.5, 32.15 and 31.85 on heavy volume; Sleeper still weights his slow start.

    What changed Tier 7 to 5 and ppg 17.5 to 21 after a third straight 25-plus game; replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which adds to it.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    19.1
    Above repl.
    +5.4
    Wks 15–17
    22.0
    Games
    10
    commish →
  8. 8WRZay FlowersBAL · @nikashHold21.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 21.7, likely 14.3–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.4
    2. Week 8: expected 20.4, likely 13.4–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–32.4
    3. Week 9: expected 21.0, likely 13.8–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.3
    4. Week 10: expected 21.1, likely 13.9–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.5
    5. Week 11: expected 20.0, likely 13.2–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 6–31.9
    6. Week 12: expected 21.1, likely 13.9–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.5
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 21.6, likely 14.2–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.3
    9. Week 15: expected 21.2, likely 14–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–33.8
    10. Week 16: expected 20.2, likely 13.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–32.2
    11. Week 17: expected 21.6, likely 14.3–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.4
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 13.9, his second straight game under 17 since Lamar Jackson's ankle put Tyler Huntley under center. He's at 21.1 ppg on a steady target share, but Huntley has taken the deep balls out of his game. Week 13 is Baltimore's bye. FantasyCalc's 4753 is fair; nikash holds until Lamar is back.

    What changed Replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which raises his value, but he stays Tier 5 at the same 21 ppg; others passing him may move his position rank.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    19.1
    Above repl.
    +5.4
    Wks 15–17
    21.0
    Games
    10
    The Naughty Betas →
  9. 9WRJustin JeffersonMIN · @PredjsSell18.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 19.2, likely 11.1–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.6
    2. Week 8: expected 19.1, likely 11.1–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.5
    3. Week 9: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.1
    4. Week 10: expected 18.1, likely 10.5–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.7
    5. Week 11: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–29
    6. Week 12: expected 17.3, likely 10–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.4
    7. Week 13: expected 16.9, likely 9.8–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.6
    8. Week 14: expected 17.4, likely 10.1–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.6
    9. Week 15: expected 19.1, likely 11.1–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.4
    10. Week 16: expected 19.3, likely 11.2–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.9
    11. Week 17: expected 17.8, likely 10.4–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.3
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Minnesota had its bye in Week 6, so he's still at 16.6 ppg in four games (32.6, 9.4, 6.05, 18.25) after the ankle. The Vikings win on the run game and Murray's passing volume is thin. At 18 he's about 4 a week above a free agent, Tier 5. FantasyCalc's 5642 is still WR1 money for a WR13-level producer; Predjs should sell.

    Why not the projection (19.9) 18 vs Sleeper's 19.9: Minnesota's low passing volume and his 16.6 ppg don't support Sleeper's number.

    What changed Tier 7 to 5: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which is worth two tiers at his level; his ppg call is unchanged.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    18.0
    Above repl.
    +4.3
    Wks 15–17
    18.7
    Games
    11
    Coked up Dakshots →
  10. 10WRChristian WatsonGB · @skollurHold19.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 20.5, likely 11.8–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–35.7
    2. Week 8: expected 18.4, likely 8.7–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 3–34.5
    3. Week 9: expected 19.2, likely 9.1–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–35.9
    4. Week 10: expected 18.1, likely 8.6–26, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–33.9
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 18.4, likely 8.8–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–34.6
    7. Week 13: expected 19.8, likely 9.4–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–37.1
    8. Week 14: expected 18.9, likely 9–27.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–35.5
    9. Week 15: expected 21.7, likely 12.5–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–37.7
    10. Week 16: expected 20.2, likely 11.6–26, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–35
    11. Week 17: expected 19.7, likely 9.4–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–36.9
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 11.3 in the 23-13 win over Dallas, the bust side of his range after the 35.6 in Week 5. He's at 21.8 ppg with six TDs in six games, which will regress, but he's Jordan Love's deep target. Week 11 is the bye. High volatility stays. FantasyCalc's 4485 is fair; skollur holds.

    Why not the projection (18.5) 19.5 vs Sleeper's 18.5: he's at 21.8 ppg as the Packers' deep target; we discount the TD rate.

    What changed Tier 6 to 5: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier; ppg unchanged.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    17.7
    Above repl.
    +4.0
    Wks 15–17
    20.5
    Games
    10
    JSN’s backpack →
  11. 11WRNico CollinsHOU · @arireddyHold19.5-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 19.1, likely 11.1–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.6
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 19.6, likely 11.4–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.4
    4. Week 10: expected 18.8, likely 10.9–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–31.9
    5. Week 11: expected 19.5, likely 11.3–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–33.1
    6. Week 12: expected 19.4, likely 11.2–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.9
    7. Week 13: expected 19.7, likely 11.4–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.5
    8. Week 14: expected 21.1, likely 13.9–26, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.5
    9. Week 15: expected 19.4, likely 11.3–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–33.1
    10. Week 16: expected 18.6, likely 10.8–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–31.6
    11. Week 17: expected 19.6, likely 11.4–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.3
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 3 catches on 5 targets for 74 yards (12.95) in the 34-31 win over Jacksonville in London, as Stroud spread the ball to 10 receivers (source: cbssports.com). Marvin Harrison Jr. played his first Houston game (7.3), and the Texans haven't defined his role yet. He's at 20.3 ppg in four games, and Week 8 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 4821 is fair; arireddy holds.

    What changed Tier 6 to 5 and ppg 20 to 19.5: two quiet games in a row and a new target in Harrison, but replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    17.7
    Above repl.
    +4.0
    Wks 15–17
    19.2
    Games
    10
    dogwater →
  12. 12WRTetairoa McMillanCAR · @ShukySell17.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 17.5, likely 10.1–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.7
    2. Week 8: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–23, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–29
    3. Week 9: expected 15.6, likely 9.1–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.5
    4. Week 10: expected 17.3, likely 10–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.5
    5. Week 11: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.1
    6. Week 12: expected 17.9, likely 10.4–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.5
    7. Week 13: expected 15.5, likely 9–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.4
    8. Week 14: expected 17.3, likely 10–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.4
    9. Week 15: expected 17.8, likely 10.3–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.3
    10. Week 16: expected 17.5, likely 10.2–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.8
    11. Week 17: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.3
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 16.65 in the 25-14 win at Philadelphia, his first game with Jalen Coker back, and Coker led the team with 13 targets (source: nbcsports.com). He's at 19.1 ppg, but 46.65 of that came without Coker; his other four games average 12.2. Carolina has no bye left. FantasyCalc's 3336 still pays for the 46-point game; Shuky should sell.

    Why not the projection (16.7) 17 vs Sleeper's 16.7: within range, kept at last week's call.

    What changed Tier 6 to 5: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier; ppg unchanged.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    17.0
    Above repl.
    +3.3
    Wks 15–17
    17.1
    Games
    11
    To infinity and bijan →
  13. 13WRJalen CokerCAR · @PredjsBuy16.0new
    1. Week 7: expected 16.3, likely 9.5–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.8
    2. Week 8: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.3
    3. Week 9: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.4
    4. Week 10: expected 16.3, likely 9.5–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.8
    5. Week 11: expected 16.2, likely 9.4–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.6
    6. Week 12: expected 16.8, likely 9.8–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.6
    7. Week 13: expected 14.9, likely 8.6–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.3
    8. Week 14: expected 16.3, likely 9.5–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.7
    9. Week 15: expected 16.7, likely 9.7–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.5
    10. Week 16: expected 16.5, likely 9.6–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–28
    11. Week 17: expected 15.4, likely 8.9–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.1
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    New to the board. He returned from the quad injury and led Carolina with 6 catches on 13 targets for 97 yards (15.25) on 75% of the snaps in the 25-14 win at Philadelphia (source: nbcsports.com). He's at 18.8 ppg in four games and now splits the No. 1 role with McMillan. FantasyCalc's 1959 is far below McMillan's 3336 for a similar role; buy from Predjs.

    Why not the projection (15.3) 16 vs Sleeper's 15.3: he led Carolina in targets in his return and is at 18.8 ppg.

    What changed New to the board after returning from the quad injury and leading Carolina in Week 6 targets.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.0
    Above repl.
    +2.3
    Wks 15–17
    16.2
    Games
    11
    Coked up Dakshots →
  14. 14WRTee HigginsCIN · @vtandaleHold16.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 16.5, likely 9.6–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–28
    2. Week 8: expected 16.9, likely 9.8–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.7
    3. Week 9: expected 15.6, likely 9–21, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.5
    4. Week 10: expected 16.2, likely 9.4–21.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.5
    5. Week 11: expected 17.4, likely 10.1–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.6
    6. Week 12: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.2
    7. Week 13: expected 15.4, likely 8.9–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.1
    8. Week 14: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.5
    9. Week 15: expected 15.1, likely 8.8–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.7
    10. Week 16: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.2
    11. Week 17: expected 15.9, likely 9.2–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–27
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Cincinnati had its bye in Week 6, a needed rest for the adductor that limited him to 4.55 in Week 5. He's at 16.9 ppg as the No. 2 behind Chase, with a Chase setback as the upside. No bye left. FantasyCalc's 2739 is fair; vtandale holds.

    Why not the projection (16.5) 16 vs Sleeper's 16.5: within range; the No. 2 role behind Chase and the adductor keep us a bit under.

    What changed Tier 7 to 6: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier; ppg unchanged.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    16.0
    Above repl.
    +2.3
    Wks 15–17
    15.7
    Games
    11
    96 bulls →
  15. 15WRDrake LondonATL · @tsinghSell17.5-1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 17.3, likely 10.1–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.5
    2. Week 8: expected 18.0, likely 10.4–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.6
    3. Week 9: expected 17.9, likely 10.4–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.4
    4. Week 10: expected 16.3, likely 9.5–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.7
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 15.8, likely 9.1–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.8
    7. Week 13: expected 18.6, likely 10.8–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–31.5
    8. Week 14: expected 16.7, likely 9.7–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.3
    9. Week 15: expected 18.9, likely 11–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.2
    10. Week 16: expected 17.9, likely 10.4–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.5
    11. Week 17: expected 17.4, likely 10.1–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.5
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 13.15, and he's at 16.7 ppg; the 31.6 in Week 3 is carrying the average. Atlanta leans on the run game and he's had one game over 22 all year. Week 11 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 4579 is Watson/Collins money for a lower-tier WR; tsingh should sell.

    Why not the projection (19.4) 17.5 vs Sleeper's 19.4: he's at 16.7 ppg and Atlanta's run game caps his volume.

    What changed ppg 18.5 to 17.5 after another middling game; replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which keeps him in Tier 6. Lean moves to sell at his FantasyCalc price.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    15.9
    Above repl.
    +2.2
    Wks 15–17
    18.1
    Games
    10
    Tua deez nuts →
  16. 16WRGarrett WilsonNYJ · @vtandaleHold17.5-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 18.5, likely 10.7–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–31.5
    2. Week 8: expected 17.8, likely 10.3–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.3
    3. Week 9: expected 16.5, likely 9.6–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–28
    4. Week 10: expected 16.8, likely 9.7–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.6
    5. Week 11: expected 17.7, likely 10.3–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–30.1
    6. Week 12: expected 19.7, likely 11.4–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.5
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 15.9, likely 9.2–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.1
    9. Week 15: expected 18.9, likely 11–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–32.2
    10. Week 16: expected 17.0, likely 9.9–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.9
    11. Week 17: expected 15.8, likely 9.2–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.9
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 9.35 in the 26-19 loss to New England, the low side of a log that swings between 6.1 and 29.2. He's at 17.2 ppg as the Jets' only real target in a low-volume offense. Week 13 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 3901 is about right; vtandale holds.

    What changed Tier 7 to 6 and ppg 18 to 17.5: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier; the trim matches his 17.2 average.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    15.9
    Above repl.
    +2.2
    Wks 15–17
    17.2
    Games
    10
    96 bulls →
  17. 17WRMatthew GoldenGB · @somickeyBuy17.5+1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 19.3, likely 11.2–26, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.8
    2. Week 8: expected 16.3, likely 9.4–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.7
    3. Week 9: expected 17.0, likely 9.9–23, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–29
    4. Week 10: expected 15.8, likely 9.1–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.8
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 16.2, likely 9.4–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.5
    7. Week 13: expected 17.7, likely 10.3–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–30
    8. Week 14: expected 16.8, likely 9.7–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.6
    9. Week 15: expected 19.8, likely 11.5–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.7
    10. Week 16: expected 18.2, likely 10.5–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.9
    11. Week 17: expected 17.6, likely 10.2–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–30
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 24.95 in the 23-13 win over Dallas, his second straight game near 24 and fourth over 17 in six. He's at 18.8 ppg as Green Bay's steadier receiver next to Watson's boom-bust. Week 11 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 2761 is cheap for that; buy from somickey.

    Why not the projection (16.9) 17.5 vs Sleeper's 16.9: he's at 18.8 ppg with 23.95 and 24.95 the last two weeks.

    What changed Tier 7 to 6 and ppg 16.5 to 17.5 after another 24-point game; replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which adds to the lift.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    15.9
    Above repl.
    +2.2
    Wks 15–17
    18.5
    Games
    10
    somickey →
  18. 18WRParker WashingtonJAX · @ShukySell17.0-0.5
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 16.6, likely 7.9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–31
    3. Week 9: expected 16.4, likely 7.8–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–30.8
    4. Week 10: expected 17.4, likely 8.3–25, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–32.6
    5. Week 11: expected 16.7, likely 7.9–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–31.2
    6. Week 12: expected 17.3, likely 8.2–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–32.4
    7. Week 13: expected 17.0, likely 8.1–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–31.9
    8. Week 14: expected 16.6, likely 7.9–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–31.2
    9. Week 15: expected 16.6, likely 7.9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–31.1
    10. Week 16: expected 17.7, likely 8.4–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–33.3
    11. Week 17: expected 17.8, likely 8.4–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–33.3
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 12.2 in the 34-31 loss to Houston, after the 33.5 two-TD game in Week 5. His log swings from 2.35 to 33.5 and he's at 16.5 ppg, with return yards as a floor. Week 7 is Jacksonville's bye. FantasyCalc's 3506 still pays for the boom weeks; Shuky should sell.

    Why not the projection (19.6) 17 vs Sleeper's 19.6: Brian Thomas Jr. is still the No. 1, and Washington's 16.5 ppg doesn't support 19.6.

    What changed Tier 7 to 6 and ppg 17.5 to 17: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier even after the small cut.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    15.5
    Above repl.
    +1.8
    Wks 15–17
    17.4
    Games
    10
    To infinity and bijan →
  19. 19WRDeVonta SmithPHI · @SettytsHold16.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–29.1
    2. Week 8: expected 17.6, likely 10.2–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–30
    3. Week 9: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.3
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 16.3, likely 9.4–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.7
    6. Week 12: expected 17.6, likely 10.2–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.9
    7. Week 13: expected 17.4, likely 10.1–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.6
    8. Week 14: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.3
    9. Week 15: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.4
    10. Week 16: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.3
    11. Week 17: expected 15.4, likely 8.9–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.1
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He came back from the hamstring and scored 21.35 in the 25-14 loss to Carolina, right back to being Philadelphia's top target. He's at 18.5 ppg in four games. Week 10 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 2576 is cheap for a healthy Smith; Settyts holds.

    Why not the projection (14.1) 16.5 vs Sleeper's 14.1: he's at 18.5 ppg and back as the Eagles' No. 1.

    What changed Tier 8 to 6: he's back from the hamstring (Week 6 questionable mark cleared) and replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which puts him above replacement.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    15.0
    Above repl.
    +1.3
    Wks 15–17
    15.5
    Games
    10
    WALLAHI on the Beat →
  20. 20WRMike EvansSF · @tsinghBuy16.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.3
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–29
    4. Week 10: expected 18.1, likely 10.5–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.7
    5. Week 11: expected 15.5, likely 9–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.4
    6. Week 12: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.1
    7. Week 13: expected 17.0, likely 9.8–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.8
    8. Week 14: expected 15.8, likely 9.2–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.9
    9. Week 15: expected 17.0, likely 9.9–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.9
    10. Week 16: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.3
    11. Week 17: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.4
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    tsingh got him from Predjs on Oct 19. Week 6 was 14.3 in the Monday night win over Washington, with Deebo Samuel out with the hamstring; Shanahan says Deebo will miss at least a couple of weeks (source: espn.com). He's at 16.6 ppg and gets the short targets until Deebo is back after the Week 8 bye. FantasyCalc's 2276 is cheap for a Tier 6 starter.

    Why not the projection (19.9) 16.5 vs Sleeper's 19.9: he's 33, at 16.6 ppg, in a run-first offense.

    What changed Tier 7 to 6, and now owned by tsingh after the Oct 19 trade with Predjs. Replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    15.0
    Above repl.
    +1.3
    Wks 15–17
    16.4
    Games
    10
    Tua deez nuts →
  21. 21WRRashee RiceKC · @vtandaleHold15.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 6.7, likely 0–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.3 (questionable)
    2. Week 8: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.1
    3. Week 9: expected 15.4, likely 8.9–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.2
    4. Week 10: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.5
    5. Week 11: expected 16.5, likely 9.5–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–28
    6. Week 12: expected 14.8, likely 8.6–20, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.2
    7. Week 13: expected 14.4, likely 8.3–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.4
    8. Week 14: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.1
    9. Week 15: expected 14.9, likely 8.7–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.4
    10. Week 16: expected 14.7, likely 8.5–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25
    11. Week 17: expected 15.5, likely 9–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.4
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He was ruled out of Week 6 with the hamstring after not practicing all week (source: nbcsports.com), and Reid says of Week 7 at Seattle, 'we'll have to see' (source: atozsports.com). We mark Week 7 questionable. Healthy he's about 15, at 13.6 ppg in his three full games, and Kansas City has no bye left. FantasyCalc's 1847 is fair; vtandale holds.

    Why not the projection (16.7) 15 vs Sleeper's 16.7: he's at 13.6 ppg in healthy games; Week 7 questionable for the hamstring.

    What changed Tier 8 to 7: Week 6 is past (he missed it) and Week 7 is now questionable; replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which puts a healthy 15-ppg WR about even with replacement.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    14.4
    Above repl.
    +0.7
    Wks 15–17
    15.0
    Games
    10.5
    96 bulls →
  22. 22WRA.J. BrownNE · @skollurSell15.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.4
    2. Week 8: expected 17.6, likely 10.2–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.8
    3. Week 9: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.7
    4. Week 10: expected 16.7, likely 9.7–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.4
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 15.8, likely 9.1–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.8
    7. Week 13: expected 14.9, likely 8.6–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.3
    8. Week 14: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–19, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.9
    9. Week 15: expected 14.7, likely 8.5–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.9
    10. Week 16: expected 15.6, likely 9.1–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.6
    11. Week 17: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.1
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He came off IR and played 52 of 68 snaps against the Jets with a team-high 10 targets, but caught 3 for 27 with three drops (4.1) (source: 985thesportshub.com). Romeo Doubs went on IR with a shoulder injury and is out until at least Week 12 (source: espn.com), so the volume will be there. Week 11 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 3241 is a healthy-WR2 price for a player at Tier 7; sell.

    Why not the projection (15.8) 15.5 vs Sleeper's 15.8: within range; rust and the ankle keep us just under.

    What changed Tier 8 to 7: he's back from IR, so the Week 6 out mark is gone, and replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    14.1
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 15–17
    14.8
    Games
    10
    JSN’s backpack →
  23. 23WRGeorge PickensDAL · @vtandaleSell14.0+0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 13.1, likely 6.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.7
    2. Week 8: expected 15.4, likely 8.9–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.2
    3. Week 9: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.3
    4. Week 10: expected 13.6, likely 6.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.6
    5. Week 11: expected 15.1, likely 8.8–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.7
    6. Week 12: expected 13.5, likely 6.3–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.5
    7. Week 13: expected 13.3, likely 6.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.1
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected
    9. Week 15: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.9
    10. Week 16: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.3
    11. Week 17: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.3
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 6 catches for 73 yards on 11 targets (15.35) at Green Bay, leading Dallas in yards with Lamb back (source: draftsharks.com). Dallas throws enough to feed both, but he's at 15.3 ppg with one spike game, and Week 14 is the bye. At 14 he's about a point a week below a free agent. FantasyCalc's 3134 is still a big overpay; vtandale should sell.

    Why not the projection (14.0) 14 vs Sleeper's 14.0: same as Sleeper.

    What changed Tier 8 to 7 and ppg 13.5 to 14: he held 11 targets next to a healthy Lamb, and replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which puts him at the bottom edge of Tier 7.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    12.7
    Above repl.
    -1.0
    Wks 15–17
    13.9
    Games
    10
    96 bulls →
  24. 24WRMichael WilsonARI · @PredjsHold14.0-1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 12.8, likely 6–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.1
    2. Week 8: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.7
    3. Week 9: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.9
    4. Week 10: expected 13.0, likely 6.1–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.5
    5. Week 11: expected 13.3, likely 6.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26
    6. Week 12: expected 15.8, likely 9.1–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.8
    7. Week 13: expected 13.4, likely 6.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.2
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected
    9. Week 15: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.1
    10. Week 16: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.3
    11. Week 17: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.7
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 7.9, his third straight game under 20 as Arizona's top wideout, and he's at 13.2 ppg. The Harrison trade gave him the role but not the production. Week 14 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 1801 is fair; Predjs holds.

    Why not the projection (15.5) 14 vs Sleeper's 15.5: he's at 13.2 ppg and has scored 8.15 and 7.9 since becoming the No. 1.

    What changed Tier 8 to 7 despite ppg 15 to 14 after two quiet games: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which puts him at the bottom edge of Tier 7.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    12.7
    Above repl.
    -1.0
    Wks 15–17
    14.3
    Games
    10
    Coked up Dakshots →
  25. 25WRJameson WilliamsDET · @SettytsSell12.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 12.7, likely 4.3–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–28
    2. Week 8: expected 11.2, likely 3.8–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.6
    3. Week 9: expected 14.0, likely 4.7–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–30.7
    4. Week 10: expected 12.0, likely 4.1–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–26.5
    5. Week 11: expected 12.8, likely 4.3–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–28.2
    6. Week 12: expected 12.8, likely 4.3–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–28.1
    7. Week 13: expected 12.0, likely 4.1–18, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–26.5
    8. Week 14: expected 13.1, likely 4.4–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–28.9
    9. Week 15: expected 11.2, likely 3.8–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.7
    10. Week 16: expected 12.5, likely 4.2–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–27.5
    11. Week 17: expected 12.9, likely 4.3–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–28.3
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Detroit had its bye in Week 6. He's at 12.7 ppg on a TD-dependent role behind St. Brown and LaPorta, with two straight 18-plus games built on three TDs. No bye left. FantasyCalc's 1303 is fair; Settyts should sell the TD run.

    What changed No change in ppg or tier; the lower replacement level narrows his gap to about a point a week.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    12.5
    Above repl.
    -1.2
    Wks 15–17
    12.2
    Games
    11
    WALLAHI on the Beat →
  26. 26WRLuther BurdenCHI · @nikashHold13.5+1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.8
    2. Week 8: expected 12.4, likely 5.8–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.4
    3. Week 9: expected 13.7, likely 6.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–26.8
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 13.3, likely 6.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.1
    6. Week 12: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.1
    7. Week 13: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.9
    8. Week 14: expected 14.7, likely 8.6–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.1
    9. Week 15: expected 12.8, likely 6–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.1
    10. Week 16: expected 13.3, likely 6.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.2
    11. Week 17: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.1
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 19.4, his second-best game of the year, with Caleb Williams back from the hamstring at Atlanta (source: si.com). He's at 13.5 ppg, and Williams is the first real upgrade for Chicago's receivers since Week 2. Week 10 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 1604 is fair; nikash holds for the Williams bump.

    Why not the projection (15.1) 13.5 vs Sleeper's 15.1: he's at 13.5 ppg and Chicago spreads targets across three receivers and the tight end.

    What changed ppg 12.5 to 13.5 after the 19.4 game in Caleb Williams' return; still Tier 8.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    12.3
    Above repl.
    -1.4
    Wks 15–17
    13.4
    Games
    10
    The Naughty Betas →
  27. 27WRDJ MooreBUF · @sishaarHold14.0–
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 7.0, likely 0–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.1 (questionable)
    3. Week 9: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–24.9
    4. Week 10: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–19, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.9
    5. Week 11: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.7
    6. Week 12: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.8
    7. Week 13: expected 13.7, likely 6.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–26.8
    8. Week 14: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24
    9. Week 15: expected 14.4, likely 8.4–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.5
    10. Week 16: expected 12.9, likely 6–18, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.2
    11. Week 17: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.7
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He was inactive for the second straight game with the AC joint sprain, after one limited practice (source: nbcsports.com). Week 7 is Buffalo's bye, and Buffalo hasn't given a timeline, so we mark Week 8 questionable. Healthy he's about 14; he's at 10 ppg with two shoulder exits. FantasyCalc's 1646 is fair; sishaar holds.

    Why not the projection (15.7) Questionable Week 8 (shoulder, inactive Weeks 5-6, Week 7 bye); 14 per game when he plays, below Sleeper's 15.7 because he's at 10 ppg and keeps re-injuring it.

    What changed Out weeks changed: Week 6 is past and Week 8 is now questionable. Replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which narrows his gap, but he stays Tier 8.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    12.1
    Above repl.
    -1.6
    Wks 15–17
    14.3
    Games
    9.5
    commish →
  28. 28WRCarnell TateTEN · @nikashHold13.0+0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 11.8, likely 5.5–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.1
    2. Week 8: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.8
    3. Week 9: bye or not projected
    4. Week 10: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–24.8
    5. Week 11: expected 13.9, likely 6.6–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–27.3
    6. Week 12: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–24.9
    7. Week 13: expected 14.0, likely 6.6–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–27.4
    8. Week 14: expected 13.7, likely 6.4–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–26.9
    9. Week 15: expected 12.6, likely 5.9–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–24.8
    10. Week 16: expected 12.9, likely 6.1–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.4
    11. Week 17: expected 12.8, likely 6–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.1
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 20.05, a bounce back from the 1.65 in Week 5, and he's at 11.6 ppg with a log that swings with Tennessee's passing game. Week 9 is the bye. At 13 he's still about two points a week below a free agent. FantasyCalc's 1285 is fair for a rookie with a target share; nikash holds.

    Why not the projection (15.9) 13 vs Sleeper's 15.9: he's at 11.6 ppg in one of the league's weakest passing offenses.

    What changed ppg 12.5 to 13 after the 20.05 game; still Tier 8, but the lower replacement level narrows his gap.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    11.8
    Above repl.
    -1.9
    Wks 15–17
    12.8
    Games
    10
    The Naughty Betas →
  29. 29WRDenzel BostonCLE · @arireddyHold13.0-1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 13.6, likely 6.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–26.6
    2. Week 8: expected 13.0, likely 6.1–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.4
    3. Week 9: expected 12.9, likely 6.1–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.4
    4. Week 10: expected 12.9, likely 6.1–18, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.3
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 13.1, likely 6.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.6
    7. Week 13: expected 13.3, likely 6.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.1
    8. Week 14: expected 12.4, likely 5.9–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.4
    9. Week 15: expected 13.0, likely 6.1–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.4
    10. Week 16: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25
    11. Week 17: expected 12.9, likely 6–18, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 2.8, his worst game after five straight between 9.2 and 22.75, and he's at 13.3 ppg as Cleveland's top target. The low-volume Browns offense caps his ceiling, and Week 11 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 1101 is fair; arireddy holds as a bye-week piece.

    Why not the projection (11.8) 13 vs Sleeper's 11.8: he's at 13.3 ppg as Cleveland's top target.

    What changed ppg 14 to 13 after the 2.8 game; still Tier 8.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    11.8
    Above repl.
    -1.9
    Wks 15–17
    12.9
    Games
    10
    dogwater →
  30. 30WRXavier WorthyKC · @SettytsHold11.5new
    1. Week 7: expected 10.3, likely 4.8–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–20.1
    2. Week 8: expected 10.8, likely 5.1–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–21.2
    3. Week 9: expected 11.9, likely 5.6–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.2
    4. Week 10: expected 11.5, likely 5.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.6
    5. Week 11: expected 12.9, likely 6.1–18, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.2
    6. Week 12: expected 11.4, likely 5.4–16, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.4
    7. Week 13: expected 10.9, likely 5.1–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–21.4
    8. Week 14: expected 12.4, likely 5.8–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.4
    9. Week 15: expected 11.5, likely 5.4–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.5
    10. Week 16: expected 11.2, likely 5.3–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22
    11. Week 17: expected 12.0, likely 5.7–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.6
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    New to the board. Week 6 was 15.4, his best game, with Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton out (source: kctv5.com). He's at 10.2 ppg, and a healthy Rice pushes him back to the third option behind Kelce. FantasyCalc's 551 is about right; Settyts holds as depth.

    What changed New to the board after scoring 15.4 with Rice out.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    11.5
    Above repl.
    -2.2
    Wks 15–17
    11.6
    Games
    11
    WALLAHI on the Beat →
  31. 31WRDeebo SamuelSF · not rostered now · out Wk 7Hold14.5–
    1. Week 7: out
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 7.6, likely 0–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.2 (questionable)
    4. Week 10: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.1
    5. Week 11: expected 13.6, likely 6.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–26.6
    6. Week 12: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.8
    7. Week 13: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.4
    8. Week 14: expected 13.9, likely 6.5–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–27.2
    9. Week 15: expected 14.9, likely 8.7–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.4
    10. Week 16: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–19, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.9
    11. Week 17: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–19, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He missed Week 6 with the hamstring, and Shanahan says he'll miss at least a couple of weeks (source: espn.com). We keep Week 7 out; Week 8 is San Francisco's bye, and Week 9 is questionable. He was at 18.1 ppg before the injury, and his carries score extra here. FantasyCalc's 744 already prices the injury; tsingh holds.

    Why not the projection (13.1) Out Week 7 and questionable Week 9 (hamstring); 14.5 per game when back, above Sleeper's 13.1 because his carries score extra here.

    What changed Week 6 out mark dropped now that it has passed; Week 7 out and Week 9 questionable stay.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    11.2
    Above repl.
    -2.5
    Wks 15–17
    14.4
    Games
    8.5
    Tua deez nuts →
  32. 32WRDK MetcalfPIT · @skollurHold12.0+1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–24.8
    2. Week 8: expected 11.6, likely 5.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.7
    3. Week 9: bye or not projected
    4. Week 10: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–24.9
    5. Week 11: expected 11.5, likely 5.4–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.5
    6. Week 12: expected 10.9, likely 5.1–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–21.3
    7. Week 13: expected 12.2, likely 5.8–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24
    8. Week 14: expected 12.2, likely 5.7–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24
    9. Week 15: expected 12.1, likely 5.7–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.7
    10. Week 16: expected 11.3, likely 5.3–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.2
    11. Week 17: expected 13.1, likely 6.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.6
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 22.1, his best game as a Steeler, after the 4.05 the week before. He's at 12.4 ppg as Pittsburgh's No. 1 in an offense that doesn't produce much. Week 9 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 1163 is fair; skollur holds him as depth.

    Why not the projection (13.1) 12 vs Sleeper's 13.1: he's at 12.4 ppg with three games under 9.

    What changed ppg 11 to 12 after the 22.1 game; still Tier 8.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    10.9
    Above repl.
    -2.8
    Wks 15–17
    12.2
    Games
    10
    JSN’s backpack →
  33. 33WRTerry McLaurinWAS · not rostered nowHold12.0-1.0
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 11.4, likely 5.3–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.2
    3. Week 9: expected 11.1, likely 5.2–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–21.7
    4. Week 10: expected 12.2, likely 5.7–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–23.9
    5. Week 11: expected 12.6, likely 5.9–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.7
    6. Week 12: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.9
    7. Week 13: expected 12.9, likely 6.1–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.4
    8. Week 14: expected 12.1, likely 5.7–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–23.8
    9. Week 15: expected 11.7, likely 5.5–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–22.9
    10. Week 16: expected 10.8, likely 5.1–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–21.1
    11. Week 17: expected 12.1, likely 5.7–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–23.8
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 4.5, a step back after the 13.65 with Jayden Daniels in Week 5, and he's at 10.4 ppg. Week 7 is Washington's bye. At 12 he's about two points a week below a free agent. FantasyCalc's 1310 is fair; sishaar holds.

    What changed ppg 13 to 12 after the 4.5 game; still Tier 8.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    10.9
    Above repl.
    -2.8
    Wks 15–17
    11.5
    Games
    10
    commish →
  34. 34WRLadd McConkeyLAC · @vtandaleHold12.5-0.5
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 5.8, likely 0–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.4 (questionable)
    3. Week 9: expected 12.5, likely 5.9–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.6
    4. Week 10: expected 12.5, likely 5.9–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.4
    5. Week 11: expected 12.5, likely 5.9–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.4
    6. Week 12: expected 12.1, likely 5.7–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.7
    7. Week 13: expected 13.0, likely 6.1–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.5
    8. Week 14: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25
    9. Week 15: expected 11.9, likely 5.6–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.4
    10. Week 16: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.8
    11. Week 17: expected 11.8, likely 5.5–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.1
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He finally shed the foot designation, then left Week 6 at Kansas City in the second quarter with a concussion after one catch for 17 yards (3.0) (source: sports.yahoo.com). Week 7 is the Chargers' bye, which helps, but we mark Week 8 questionable until he clears the protocol. He's at 8.6 ppg on an 0-6 team. FantasyCalc's 1108 is fair; vtandale holds.

    Why not the projection (14.3) 12.5 vs Sleeper's 14.3: he's at 8.6 ppg and has been hurt since Week 4; Week 8 questionable (concussion).

    What changed ppg 13 to 12.5; the Week 6 questionable mark is gone, and Week 8 is now questionable for the concussion.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    10.8
    Above repl.
    -2.9
    Wks 15–17
    12.6
    Games
    9.5
    96 bulls →
  35. 35WRJaylen WaddleDEN · @tsinghSell11.0-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 11.7, likely 3.9–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–25.7
    2. Week 8: expected 10.2, likely 3.4–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.4
    3. Week 9: expected 10.2, likely 3.4–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.5
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 11.1, likely 3.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.5
    6. Week 12: expected 11.1, likely 3.7–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.4
    7. Week 13: expected 12.4, likely 4.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–27.3
    8. Week 14: expected 10.9, likely 3.7–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24
    9. Week 15: expected 11.2, likely 3.8–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.6
    10. Week 16: expected 10.4, likely 3.5–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.9
    11. Week 17: expected 10.6, likely 3.6–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 6.6, and he left the Seattle game with a shoulder injury before returning without a target (source: milehighreport.com). That's four games in six under 8, and he's at 10.0 ppg in a low-volume Denver passing game. Denver gets 10 days before Week 7. FantasyCalc's 1200 is still more than he's producing; tsingh should sell.

    Why not the projection (14.4) 11 vs Sleeper's 14.4: he's at 10.0 ppg as a secondary option for Bo Nix.

    What changed ppg 11.5 to 11 after another weak game and a shoulder scare; still Tier 8.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    10.0
    Above repl.
    -3.7
    Wks 15–17
    10.7
    Games
    10
    Tua deez nuts →
  36. 36WRRome OdunzeCHI · not rostered nowSell10.0-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 9.6, likely 3.3–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.2
    2. Week 8: expected 9.1, likely 3.1–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.1
    3. Week 9: expected 10.2, likely 3.4–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.4
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 9.8, likely 3.3–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.5
    6. Week 12: expected 10.6, likely 3.6–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.2
    7. Week 13: expected 9.8, likely 3.3–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.5
    8. Week 14: expected 11.1, likely 3.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.5
    9. Week 15: expected 9.4, likely 3.2–14, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.6
    10. Week 16: expected 9.8, likely 3.3–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.6
    11. Week 17: expected 10.5, likely 3.6–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.1
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 8.3 even with Caleb Williams back at QB (source: si.com), and he's at 9.2 ppg with one game over 9. Burden has passed him. Week 10 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 892 is fair; sishaar should sell or cut.

    Why not the projection (12.5) 10 vs Sleeper's 12.5: he's at 9.2 ppg and has lost a fumble.

    What changed ppg 10.5 to 10 after another single-digit game; still Tier 8.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    9.1
    Above repl.
    -4.6
    Wks 15–17
    9.9
    Games
    10
    commish →
  37. 37WRChris GodwinTB · @sishaarSell9.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 9.1, likely 4.3–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.8
    2. Week 8: expected 9.3, likely 4.4–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–18.3
    3. Week 9: expected 9.9, likely 4.6–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–19.3
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 10.2, likely 4.8–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–20.1
    6. Week 12: expected 9.0, likely 4.2–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.7
    7. Week 13: expected 9.6, likely 4.5–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2–18.9
    8. Week 14: expected 9.6, likely 4.5–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2–18.7
    9. Week 15: expected 9.6, likely 4.5–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2–18.9
    10. Week 16: expected 9.4, likely 4.4–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–18.4
    11. Week 17: expected 8.9, likely 4.2–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.4
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 8.65, and he's at 8.7 ppg with no game over 10.55 in Tampa Bay's short-passing offense. Week 10 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 340 is about right; sishaar should cut him.

    Why not the projection (11.6) 9.5 vs Sleeper's 11.6: he's at 8.7 ppg with no game over 10.55.

    What changed No change; still Tier 8 at 9.5, though the lower replacement level narrows his gap.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    8.6
    Above repl.
    -5.1
    Wks 15–17
    9.3
    Games
    10
    commish →
  38. 38WRDavante AdamsLAR · not rostered now · out Wk 7–10, 12Sell14.5–
    1. Week 7: out
    2. Week 8: out
    3. Week 9: out
    4. Week 10: out
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: out
    7. Week 13: expected 7.1, likely 0–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–20.8 (questionable)
    8. Week 14: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.6
    9. Week 15: expected 16.4, likely 9.5–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.8
    10. Week 16: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.1
    11. Week 17: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.7
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He caught 3 of 4 for 39 yards (7.8) and got hurt on the final drive of the 18-16 loss to Arizona (reports differ on knee or hamstring); McVay says he'll miss 6-10 weeks and he's headed to IR (source: nbcsports.com). We mark Weeks 7-10 and 12 out (Week 11 is the Rams' bye) and Week 13 questionable, which leaves him three or four games plus the playoffs. When he's back he's the No. 2 behind Puka at about 14.5. FantasyCalc's 2168 is too much for a playoff-only stash; Predjs should sell to anyone who'll pay for December.

    Why not the projection (16.3) Out Weeks 7-10 and 12 and questionable Week 13 (ruptured hamstring, 6-10 weeks); 14.5 per game when back, below Sleeper's 16.3 because he's the No. 2 with Puka healthy.

    What changed Out weeks added: he ruptured his hamstring in Week 6 and will miss 6-10 weeks.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    6.2
    Above repl.
    -7.5
    Wks 15–17
    15.4
    Games
    4.5
    Coked up Dakshots →
  39. 39WRMarvin HarrisonHOU · @vtandaleHold7.0-1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 15.3, likely 8.9–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.1
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 6.0, likely 2.8–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.7
    4. Week 10: expected 5.6, likely 2.6–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–11
    5. Week 11: expected 5.8, likely 2.7–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–11.4
    6. Week 12: expected 5.7, likely 2.7–8, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–11.3
    7. Week 13: expected 5.9, likely 2.8–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–11.6
    8. Week 14: expected 6.6, likely 3.1–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–13
    9. Week 15: expected 5.9, likely 2.8–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–11.6
    10. Week 16: expected 5.5, likely 2.6–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.8
    11. Week 17: expected 6.0, likely 2.8–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.8
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    His first game in Houston was 7.3 in the 34-31 win over Jacksonville, where Stroud spread the ball to 10 receivers and the Texans say his role will take a few weeks to define (source: cbssports.com). He's at 5.7 ppg on the season, behind Collins and Jaylin Noel. Sleeper's 2.0 still hasn't caught up to the trade. Week 8 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 923 is a stash price; vtandale holds.

    Why not the projection (2.0) 7 vs Sleeper's 2.0: Sleeper's projection predates the trade; he has a role in Houston, behind Collins and Noel.

    What changed ppg 8 to 7 after a 7.3 debut in Houston behind Collins and Noel.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    6.2
    Above repl.
    -7.5
    Wks 15–17
    5.8
    Games
    10
    96 bulls →
  40. 40WRMakai LemonPHI · not rostered nowSell7.0-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 3.7, likely 0–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.6 (questionable)
    2. Week 8: expected 7.6, likely 3.6–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–14.8
    3. Week 9: expected 6.8, likely 3.2–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–13.4
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 6.9, likely 3.3–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–13.6
    6. Week 12: expected 7.5, likely 3.5–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–14.7
    7. Week 13: expected 7.4, likely 3.5–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–14.6
    8. Week 14: expected 6.9, likely 3.2–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–13.4
    9. Week 15: expected 6.3, likely 3–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–12.4
    10. Week 16: expected 6.9, likely 3.2–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–13.4
    11. Week 17: expected 6.5, likely 3.1–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–12.8
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 5.3, and he visited the medical tent in the third quarter with an unspecified injury (source: cbssports.com); Sleeper lists him questionable, so we mark Week 7 questionable. With DeVonta Smith back he's the third option, at 5.5 ppg. FantasyCalc's 168 is about right; sishaar should cut him.

    What changed ppg 7.5 to 7 and Week 7 questionable after the Week 6 injury.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    6.0
    Above repl.
    -7.7
    Wks 15–17
    6.6
    Games
    9.5
    commish →

Rostered since this board was written (not ranked yet): Malik Washington (@sishaar), KC Concepcion (@sishaar), Germie Bernard (@Predjs).

The analyst's notes

The biggest change this week isn't a player: it's replacement level. nikash dropped T.J. Hockenson, and at 18.5 a game the best free-agent tight end now beats most of the league's starters. Only Brock Bowers (29.5), Trey McBride (29), Isaiah Likely (24.5), Sam LaPorta and George Kittle clear him by more than a point a week. Tyler Warren, Juwan Johnson, Harold Fannin, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts and Colston Loveland are all at or below replacement, and most of them fall two or three tiers without their ppg moving much. Receivers go the other way: with Jalen Coker rostered by Predjs, the best free-agent WR is Malik Washington at 13.7, two points lower, so most starting receivers move up a tier.

Injuries did the rest. Davante Adams got hurt on the final drive against Arizona and McVay says 6–10 weeks, so he's out Weeks 7–12 and questionable for 13. Jalen Hurts missed Week 6 with a blood clot in his calf, is on IR with no timetable, and drops from Tier 4 to 8; Tanner McKee (16.3 in his first start) joins the board at 15.5. Breece Hall is out again in Week 7 and questionable in Week 8. Josh Jacobs is the good news: the NFL took him off the exempt list and he's eligible from Week 7, so he goes from Tier 8 to 6.

In our scoring, three quarterback slots still make every starting QB worth something. Jared Goff and Bryce Young are Tier 2 at about 25 a game with no bye left, Malik Willis is a starter the market prices like a free agent, and even J.J. McCarthy gets 6 a game for a package role that scored 21.45 in Week 6.

Big moves

Risers.

  • Malik Nabers (17.5 → 21, Tier 7 → 5): 12 catches, 165 yards and two TDs (31.85), his third straight 25-point game. The Giants' QB change from Jameis Winston to McCarthy is the risk.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Tier 2 → 1, RB1 at 31): nothing changed but the calendar. The bye is behind him.
  • Drake Maye (22.5 → 24, Tier 3 → 2): a third straight game over 27.
  • Trevor Lawrence (23 → 24.5): 34.15 in Week 6, the best QB score in our league. A buy at 4,992.
  • Chuba Hubbard (20.5 → 21.5, RB7 → RB4): no bye left and Jonathon Brooks out into November.
  • Puka Nacua (25.5 → 26, Tier 4 → 3): Adams' targets go to him.
  • Justin Jefferson (Tier 7 → 5) and Ja'Marr Chase (Tier 5 → 4): same ppg, lower WR replacement.
  • Josh Jacobs (13.5 → 14.5, Tier 8 → 6): back from the exempt list.
  • New: Jalen Coker (16, Tier 6, buy), Tanner McKee (15.5, Tier 6), Kyle Pitts (16 after 31.0, still Tier 8 against the new TE bar), Braelon Allen and Blake Corum (Tier 7, buys as handcuffs).

Fallers.

  • Jalen Hurts (18.5 → 0, Tier 4 → 8): blood clot, IR, no timetable.
  • Davante Adams (out Weeks 7–12): still 14.5 a game when he plays, which makes him a playoff stash.
  • Cam Skattebo (12.5 → 7, Tier 7 → 8): six snaps and no touches after his fourth fumble; Najee Harris has the job.
  • Bijan Robinson (27.5 → 26.5, Tier 2 → 3) and Derrick Henry (24 → 23, Tier 3 → 4): 8.85 and 6.15 in Week 6, and Henry lost a fumble.
  • Tyler Warren (Tier 4 → 7): the groin injury kept him out of Week 6, and Week 7 is questionable.
  • Juwan Johnson (19.5 → 17.5, Tier 5 → 8), Harold Fannin (16.5 → 14.5) and Mark Andrews (16 → 13.5): low ppg and the higher TE bar.
  • Jameis Winston (17 → 14): two interceptions and benched for McCarthy. Dak Prescott (23.5 → 22, Tier 2 → 3): four interceptions in two weeks.

Where we disagree with the market

Market too high.

  • Lamar Jackson (7,610, sell): FantasyCalc's second-priciest QB has missed two games with the ankle and is a coin flip for Week 7. At 26 a game he's worth about what Goff and Young are here, and they cost half as much.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (8,456) and Justin Jefferson (5,642), sell: priced as top receivers, but Chase is at 17.1 a game with two games under 7, and Jefferson plays in a run-first offense at 18.
  • George Kittle (3,302), Tyler Warren (2,448), Tucker Kraft (1,533) and Colston Loveland (1,376), sell: all priced as starting tight ends, and only Kittle beats the 18.5 free-agent bar here, by about a point a week.
  • Saquon Barkley (2,672) and Christian McCaffrey (7,328): Barkley averaged 7.1 here before the hamstring. McCaffrey's 31.95 on Monday was his best game, and at 22.7 a game he's priced above James Cook and Jonathan Taylor for about the same output. Hold McCaffrey, sell Barkley.

Market too low.

  • Jared Goff (4,163) and Bryce Young (3,223), buy: Tier 2 quarterbacks at about 25 a game with no bye left, priced like QB2s.
  • Chuba Hubbard (3,926), Bhayshul Tuten (2,743) and Ollie Gordon (947), buy: lead backs, and our carry and first-down scoring pays for volume.
  • Jalen Coker (1,959) and Matthew Golden (2,761), buy: Tier 6 starters priced like depth. Coker led Carolina with 13 targets in his return.
  • Malik Willis (91), buy: Miami's starter, about 6.6 points a week above a free agent in a league with three QB slots.

How it works

Every rostered player gets a week-by-week projection in our league's scoring for the rest of the season (TE premium and first-down bonuses, carries, return yards, the lot). The starting point is Sleeper's weekly projections run through our scoring. The analyst then sets how good the player is when he plays (ppg) and which weeks he'll miss, and has to say why whenever the call differs from the projection.

Rank is by points above replacement: what the player adds per week across the rest of the season, byes and missed weeks included, minus what the best free agent at that position would give you. With three QB-eligible slots and almost no free-agent QBs, that is why quarterbacks sit so high. Anything that moved since last week comes with a reason. Trades are judged by rebuilding both teams' best lineups every remaining week.

Each week's range comes from history: every player-week of the previous season scored in our settings, comparing what players actually scored with what they were projected to score, by position and projection level. The analyst's call sets the middle, and a questionable week is a coin flip between zero and a normal game.

Market prices quoted in takes are FantasyCalc redraft trade values (10 teams, 2 QB, PPR). Projections: Sleeper weekly projections, Weeks 7–17, scored with our league settings (npm run score); fetched 2026-10-20.