Dying on ImpactEst. 2021 · 2026 season

Week 6 boardUpdated Tue, Oct 20 · Weeks 7–17

Week 6 Player Board: Hockenson's Release Lifts the TE Bar to 18.5, Malik Nabers Jumps to 21

All 140 rostered players valued for Weeks 7–17. T.J. Hockenson's release makes the best free-agent TE worth 18.5 a game, which drops every tight end but Bowers, McBride, Likely, LaPorta and Kittle to replacement level or below. Malik Nabers rises from 17.5 to 21 after three straight 25-point games, Davante Adams is out Weeks 7–12, Jalen Hurts is on IR with a blood clot, and Josh Jacobs is back from the exempt list at 14.5. How it works

Replacement (best free agent, pts/week): QB 8.4 · RB 11.7 · WR 13.7 · TE 18.5 · K 10.3

  1. 1TEBrock BowersLV · @vtandaleHold29.5-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 28.3, likely 20.1–32.6, 10th–90th percentile 14.9–41.4
    2. Week 8: expected 30.1, likely 21.5–34.7, 10th–90th percentile 15.9–44.1
    3. Week 9: expected 29.2, likely 20.8–33.6, 10th–90th percentile 15.4–42.7
    4. Week 10: expected 28.5, likely 20.3–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 15.1–41.7
    5. Week 11: expected 27.9, likely 19.9–32.2, 10th–90th percentile 14.7–40.9
    6. Week 12: expected 29.1, likely 20.7–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 15.3–42.5
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 30.2, likely 21.5–34.8, 10th–90th percentile 16–44.2
    9. Week 15: expected 27.8, likely 19.8–32.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.7–40.8
    10. Week 16: expected 31.8, likely 22.6–36.6, 10th–90th percentile 16.8–46.6
    11. Week 17: expected 31.7, likely 22.6–36.5, 10th–90th percentile 16.7–46.4
    Points by week, 0–50. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Four of 9 for 70 in the loss to Buffalo, 19.25 here, after a quiet first half and a week of limited practices for the knee (sources: nbcsports.com, nbcsports.com). He's still at 33.1 a game in four games and the Raiders' target leader, so one soft week doesn't change the role. We're 2.6 over Sleeper at 29.5, TE1 on the board by a hair, about 8 over replacement; the formula says T4 and his ceiling (45.6 in Week 3) earns the bump back to T3. FantasyCalc's 7,155 is the top TE price and fair; hold, with the managed knee the only reason it isn't a buy.

    Why not the projection (26.9) Above Sleeper's 26.9: 33.1 a game in his four games, team target leader every week.

    What changed Tier 2 to 3 because the TE replacement level rose 4.2 points (Hockenson dropped); ppg trimmed 30 to 29.5 after 19.25 in Week 6 on a limited practice week. Still TE1.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    26.8
    Above repl.
    +8.3
    Wks 15–17
    30.4
    Games
    10
    96 bulls →
  2. 2TETrey McBrideARI · @tsinghHold29.0-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 27.0, likely 19.2–31.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.3–39.5
    2. Week 8: expected 31.8, likely 22.6–36.6, 10th–90th percentile 16.8–46.5
    3. Week 9: expected 27.8, likely 19.8–32.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.7–40.8
    4. Week 10: expected 27.2, likely 19.4–31.3, 10th–90th percentile 14.4–39.8
    5. Week 11: expected 28.0, likely 19.9–32.3, 10th–90th percentile 14.8–41
    6. Week 12: expected 31.4, likely 22.4–36.2, 10th–90th percentile 16.6–46
    7. Week 13: expected 28.0, likely 19.9–32.2, 10th–90th percentile 14.8–40.9
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected
    9. Week 15: expected 29.3, likely 20.9–33.8, 10th–90th percentile 15.5–42.9
    10. Week 16: expected 29.7, likely 21.2–34.2, 10th–90th percentile 15.7–43.5
    11. Week 17: expected 29.7, likely 21.2–34.2, 10th–90th percentile 15.7–43.5
    Points by week, 0–50. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Seven of 9 for 53 in the Week 6 win over the Rams, 24.8 here, against the defense that has allowed the fewest TE points, with an interception on his first target and a goal-line screen stopped for a loss (source: nbcsports.com). That's 29.1 a game over six with double-digit targets in five straight, the steadiest TE1 role in a format that pays double per catch. At 29 he's about 8 a week over the best free agent, which is T4 by the formula; we keep him in T3 because the 18.5 replacement is one just-dropped Hockenson projection and nobody else gives this floor. His Week 14 bye falls just before the Weeks 15-17 playoff window; hold.

    What changed Tier 2 to 3 and ppg 29.5 to 29: the TE replacement level jumped from 14.3 to 18.5 with T.J. Hockenson on waivers, which cuts about 4 points a week off his value over replacement; still TE2.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    26.4
    Above repl.
    +7.9
    Wks 15–17
    29.6
    Games
    10
    Tua deez nuts →
  3. 3TEIsaiah LikelyNYG · @somickeyHold24.5+1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 23.5, likely 15.1–28, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–37.2
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 23.4, likely 15–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–36.9
    4. Week 10: expected 26.3, likely 16.8–31.3, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–41.6
    5. Week 11: expected 24.7, likely 15.8–29.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–39
    6. Week 12: expected 24.5, likely 15.7–29.2, 10th–90th percentile 10–38.7
    7. Week 13: expected 23.5, likely 15.1–28, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–37.2
    8. Week 14: expected 23.1, likely 14.8–27.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–36.6
    9. Week 15: expected 23.5, likely 15–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–37.1
    10. Week 16: expected 26.1, likely 16.7–31.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–41.3
    11. Week 17: expected 26.7, likely 17.1–31.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–42.2
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Six of 11 for 99 and a 24-yard fourth-quarter TD in the 34-27 loss to New Orleans, 36.4 here, even after Jameis Winston was benched for J.J. McCarthy mid-game (sources: nbcsports.com, thefantasyfootballers.com). That's 28.6 a game and 11+ targets in four of six, the Giants' clear No. 2 behind Malik Nabers. We raise him to 24.5, TE3 on the board, about 4 over replacement after the Week 8 bye. The QB change is the risk; FantasyCalc's 2,984 now prices him as a TE3, so hold rather than buy.

    Why not the projection (20.6) Above Sleeper's 20.6: 28.6 a game and double-digit targets in four of six.

    What changed Tier 4 to 5 despite ppg up 23.5 to 24.5: the TE replacement level rose 4.2 points (Hockenson dropped). Lean buy to hold now that FantasyCalc has caught up at 2,984.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    22.3
    Above repl.
    +3.8
    Wks 15–17
    25.4
    Games
    10
    somickey →
  4. 4TESam LaPortaDET · @sishaarHold22.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 22.5, likely 14.4–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–35.5
    2. Week 8: expected 20.0, likely 12.8–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–31.6
    3. Week 9: expected 24.3, likely 15.5–28.9, 10th–90th percentile 10–38.4
    4. Week 10: expected 21.6, likely 13.8–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 8.9–34.2
    5. Week 11: expected 22.6, likely 14.5–26.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–35.8
    6. Week 12: expected 22.2, likely 14.2–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–35.1
    7. Week 13: expected 21.6, likely 13.8–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–34.1
    8. Week 14: expected 23.2, likely 14.8–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–36.7
    9. Week 15: expected 20.1, likely 12.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–31.7
    10. Week 16: expected 22.0, likely 14.1–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 9–34.8
    11. Week 17: expected 22.3, likely 14.2–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–35.2
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Detroit was on bye in Week 6; he's at 24.1 a game over five, with 36.4 and 27.55 in his last two and a fourth-down conversion role that pays here. No bye left, so he plays all 11 remaining weeks, which matters more now that every bye costs against an 18.5 free agent. We stay at 22, about 3.5 a week over replacement and TE4 on the board. FantasyCalc's 2,600 is fair; hold.

    Why not the projection (20.7) Above Sleeper's 20.7: 24.1 a game through five with a steady red-zone and fourth-down role.

    What changed Tier 4 to 5 with ppg unchanged at 22: the TE replacement level rose from 14.3 to 18.5 after Hockenson was dropped, about 4 points a week off his value.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    22.0
    Above repl.
    +3.5
    Wks 15–17
    21.5
    Games
    11
    commish →
  5. 5TEGeorge KittleSF · @arireddySell21.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 21.3, likely 13.6–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 8.7–33.6
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 22.1, likely 14.2–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–35
    4. Week 10: expected 23.4, likely 15–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–37
    5. Week 11: expected 20.3, likely 13–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.3–32
    6. Week 12: expected 21.0, likely 13.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.6–33.1
    7. Week 13: expected 22.1, likely 14.1–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–34.9
    8. Week 14: expected 20.6, likely 13.2–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 8.4–32.5
    9. Week 15: expected 22.1, likely 14.1–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9–34.9
    10. Week 16: expected 21.1, likely 13.5–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.7–33.4
    11. Week 17: expected 21.1, likely 13.5–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.6–33.3
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Five catches for 69 yards and a TD in the Monday night win over Washington while playing through illness, 24.4 here (sources: nbcsports.com, nbcsports.com). He's at 21.5 a game, and the good weeks rest on touchdowns from 5-6 targets. We stay at 21.5, under Sleeper's 24, and with a Week 8 bye that's only about 1 point a week over replacement. FantasyCalc's 3,302 is the third-highest TE price for a TE5 here; sell.

    Why not the projection (24.0) Under Sleeper's 24: 21.5 a game so far, TD-driven on a 5-6 target role.

    What changed Tier 4 to 6: same 21.5 ppg, but the TE replacement level jumped from 14.3 to 18.5 (Hockenson dropped), leaving him about 1 point a week above a free agent.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    19.6
    Above repl.
    +1.1
    Wks 15–17
    21.4
    Games
    10
    dogwater →
  6. 6TETravis KelceKC · @PredjsSell19.0+0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 17.5, likely 9.6–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–33
    2. Week 8: expected 18.0, likely 9.9–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.1
    3. Week 9: expected 19.4, likely 10.7–26, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–36.7
    4. Week 10: expected 19.1, likely 10.5–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 5–36.2
    5. Week 11: expected 20.4, likely 13.1–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 8.4–32.3
    6. Week 12: expected 18.7, likely 10.3–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–35.4
    7. Week 13: expected 18.2, likely 10–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.3
    8. Week 14: expected 19.9, likely 11–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–37.7
    9. Week 15: expected 19.2, likely 10.6–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 5–36.3
    10. Week 16: expected 18.8, likely 10.4–25.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–35.6
    11. Week 17: expected 19.6, likely 10.8–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–37
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Five targets for 53 yards in the 22-6 win over the Chargers, 17.55 here, while in and out of the first half with an ankle injury; Noah Gray had 53 yards too (sources: nbcsports.com, nbcsports.com). Rashee Rice being out pushed targets his way, and still he's at 19.9 a game with one 41.6 week carrying the average. No bye left, but at 19 he's barely above replacement. FantasyCalc's 1,527 still pays for the name; sell.

    Why not the projection (20.6) Under Sleeper's 20.6: ankle injury and a 19.9 average propped up by one 41.6 game.

    What changed Tier 5 to 7: ppg up 18.5 to 19 on a 17.55 Week 6, but the TE replacement level rose from 14.3 to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped, and the ankle adds risk.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    19.0
    Above repl.
    +0.5
    Wks 15–17
    19.2
    Games
    11
    Coked up Dakshots →
  7. 7TETyler WarrenIND · @nikashSell21.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 9.2, likely 0–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–28.2 (questionable)
    2. Week 8: expected 21.0, likely 13.4–25, 10th–90th percentile 8.6–33.1
    3. Week 9: expected 22.4, likely 14.4–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–35.4
    4. Week 10: expected 23.2, likely 14.8–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–36.6
    5. Week 11: expected 20.8, likely 13.3–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.5–32.9
    6. Week 12: expected 21.0, likely 13.4–25, 10th–90th percentile 8.6–33.1
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 19.9, likely 10.9–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–37.6
    9. Week 15: expected 22.2, likely 14.2–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–35.1
    10. Week 16: expected 21.4, likely 13.7–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–33.8
    11. Week 17: expected 20.0, likely 12.8–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–31.7
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Inactive for Week 6 against Tennessee after hurting his groin in Friday's practice, his first career missed game and a recurrence of the August groin injury; NBC calls it not great news for Week 7 (source: nbcsports.com). When healthy he's at 22.7 a game on 30 catches in five, so the role is safe and we keep 21. We list Week 7 questionable, and with a Week 13 bye that puts him right at replacement. FantasyCalc's 2,448 is TE-starter money for a hurt player we have at TE7; sell once he's back on the field.

    What changed Tier 4 to 7: groin injury cost him Week 6 and makes Week 7 questionable, and the TE replacement level jumped from 14.3 to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    18.3
    Above repl.
    -0.2
    Wks 15–17
    21.2
    Games
    9.5
    The Naughty Betas →
  8. 8TEBrenton StrangeJAX · @tsinghHold18.0-1.0
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 17.4, likely 9.6–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–32.9
    3. Week 9: expected 17.6, likely 9.7–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.3
    4. Week 10: expected 18.6, likely 10.2–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–35.1
    5. Week 11: expected 17.7, likely 9.7–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.4
    6. Week 12: expected 18.5, likely 10.2–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–35
    7. Week 13: expected 17.8, likely 9.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.7
    8. Week 14: expected 17.5, likely 9.6–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.1
    9. Week 15: expected 17.6, likely 9.7–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.2
    10. Week 16: expected 18.8, likely 10.3–25.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–35.6
    11. Week 17: expected 18.6, likely 10.3–25, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–35.2
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Five of 7 for 44 in the loss to Houston, 18.65 here, while Nate Boerkircher took the tight end TD and Jacksonville went away from him after halftime (source: nbcsports.com). That's 72 points over his last three after a slow start, 17.0 a game overall. Week 7 is his bye, and at 18 a game he's now just under the 18.5 a free agent gives. FantasyCalc's 806 is fair; hold, but he's a depth TE now, not a starter you'd pay for.

    Why not the projection (18.6) Slightly under Sleeper's 18.6: second-half fade in Week 6 and Boerkircher stealing red-zone looks.

    What changed Tier 5 to 8: ppg trimmed 19 to 18, and the TE replacement level jumped from 14.3 to 18.5 with Hockenson on waivers; the Week 7 bye also counts.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    16.4
    Above repl.
    -2.1
    Wks 15–17
    18.3
    Games
    10
    Tua deez nuts →
  9. 9TEDallas GoedertPHI · @arireddyHold17.5+0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 17.9, likely 9.9–24, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–33.9
    2. Week 8: expected 18.3, likely 10.1–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–34.6
    3. Week 9: expected 17.3, likely 9.5–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–32.6
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 17.2, likely 9.5–23, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–32.5
    6. Week 12: expected 18.5, likely 10.2–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–34.9
    7. Week 13: expected 18.1, likely 9.9–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.1
    8. Week 14: expected 17.1, likely 9.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–32.3
    9. Week 15: expected 16.3, likely 9–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–30.9
    10. Week 16: expected 17.2, likely 9.5–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–32.5
    11. Week 17: expected 16.7, likely 9.2–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–31.5
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Six of 8 for 61 in the 25-14 loss to Carolina, 21.85 here, leading the Eagles in targets and catches on check-downs from Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts injured (source: nbcsports.com). That's 19.55 and 21.85 since the knee, and a backup QB who checks down helps a TE in this scoring. We nudge him to 17.5, a point under replacement with a Week 10 bye. At 889 he's a fair hold for arireddy.

    Why not the projection (16.5) Above Sleeper's 16.5: team target leader in both games since returning, with a check-down QB.

    What changed Tier 6 to 8 even with ppg up 17 to 17.5: the TE replacement level jumped from 14.3 to 18.5 when Hockenson was dropped.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    15.9
    Above repl.
    -2.6
    Wks 15–17
    16.7
    Games
    10
    dogwater →
  10. 10TEJuwan JohnsonNO · @nikashHold17.5-2.0
    1. Week 7: expected 17.2, likely 9.5–23, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–32.5
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 17.0, likely 9.3–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–32.1
    4. Week 10: expected 16.7, likely 9.2–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–31.6
    5. Week 11: expected 17.9, likely 9.8–24, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–33.8
    6. Week 12: expected 18.1, likely 9.9–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.2
    7. Week 13: expected 17.7, likely 9.7–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.5
    8. Week 14: expected 16.8, likely 9.2–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–31.7
    9. Week 15: expected 18.2, likely 10–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.5
    10. Week 16: expected 18.5, likely 10.2–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–35
    11. Week 17: expected 17.3, likely 9.5–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–32.7
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    No catches on 2 targets in the Week 6 win over the Giants, a zero here (source: nbcsports.com). That's 10.85 and 0 in two weeks after 21 a game in the first four, so the role is thinning. We cut him to 17.5, below the 18.5 replacement with a Week 8 bye. FantasyCalc's 808 is about right for depth; hold, nikash has better TE options.

    What changed Tier 5 to 8 and ppg 19.5 to 17.5: zero in Week 6 on 2 targets, plus the TE replacement level jumped to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    15.9
    Above repl.
    -2.6
    Wks 15–17
    18.0
    Games
    10
    The Naughty Betas →
  11. 11TETucker KraftGB · @PredjsSell17.5-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 18.2, likely 10–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.4
    2. Week 8: expected 16.5, likely 9.1–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–31.2
    3. Week 9: expected 17.5, likely 9.6–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.1
    4. Week 10: expected 16.0, likely 8.8–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–30.3
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 16.5, likely 9.1–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–31.1
    7. Week 13: expected 18.0, likely 9.9–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34
    8. Week 14: expected 16.9, likely 9.3–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–32
    9. Week 15: expected 19.8, likely 10.9–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–37.4
    10. Week 16: expected 18.1, likely 9.9–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.2
    11. Week 17: expected 17.8, likely 9.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.6
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Five of 8 for 37 in the Week 6 win over Dallas, 16.2 here, after leaving in the second quarter when a hit twisted his knee; it was the opposite knee from last year's ACL, and he missed only a drive (source: nbcsports.com). Now Predjs's after the Oct 19 trade with tsingh, he gets Detroit's TE-friendly defense in Week 7. But he's at 16.2 a game with Watson and Golden capping the ceiling, and at 17.5 that's below the new 18.5 replacement. FantasyCalc's 1,533 is starter money for a T8 here; sell.

    Why not the projection (18.5) Under Sleeper's 18.5: 16.2 a game with a capped target share.

    What changed Tier 5 to 8: ppg trimmed 18 to 17.5 after a knee scare, and the TE replacement level rose from 14.3 to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped. Traded tsingh to Predjs Oct 19.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    15.9
    Above repl.
    -2.6
    Wks 15–17
    18.6
    Games
    10
    Coked up Dakshots →
  12. 12TEKyle PittsATL · @SettytsHold16.0new
    1. Week 7: expected 16.4, likely 7.2–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–34.6
    2. Week 8: expected 16.4, likely 7.2–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–34.7
    3. Week 9: expected 16.3, likely 7.1–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–34.3
    4. Week 10: expected 15.0, likely 6.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–31.7
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 14.4, likely 6.3–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–30.4
    7. Week 13: expected 16.8, likely 7.3–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–35.4
    8. Week 14: expected 15.2, likely 6.7–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–32.2
    9. Week 15: expected 17.1, likely 7.5–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–36.1
    10. Week 16: expected 16.4, likely 7.2–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–34.6
    11. Week 17: expected 15.9, likely 7–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–33.7
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Five of 7 for 60 and two fourth-quarter TDs in the 31-23 loss to Chicago, 31.0 here, running a route on 26 of 38 dropbacks as Atlanta chased the game (sources: nbcsports.com, rotoballer.com). That's 21.45 and 31.0 in two weeks with Michael Penix Jr. and three TDs, after 7.25 total in Weeks 1-2. Sleeper's 11.9 still reflects the slow start; we're at 16, above it, but that's below the 18.5 replacement and the TDs won't keep coming. FantasyCalc's 741 is fair; hold for Settyts, but don't pay for the hot streak.

    Why not the projection (11.9) Above Sleeper's 11.9: 21.45 and 31.0 in his last two with Penix, and the routes are there.

    What changed New to the board: now Settyts's, 31.0 in Week 6 and three TDs in two weeks.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    14.5
    Above repl.
    -4.0
    Wks 15–17
    16.5
    Games
    10
    WALLAHI on the Beat →
  13. 13TEDalton KincaidBUF · @SettytsSell15.5+1.5
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 15.4, likely 8.5–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 4–29.2
    3. Week 9: expected 14.2, likely 7.8–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–26.8
    4. Week 10: expected 15.5, likely 8.5–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 4–29.3
    5. Week 11: expected 17.0, likely 9.4–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–32.2
    6. Week 12: expected 14.7, likely 8.1–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.9
    7. Week 13: expected 15.3, likely 8.4–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 4–28.9
    8. Week 14: expected 15.6, likely 8.6–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–29.5
    9. Week 15: expected 15.6, likely 8.6–21, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–29.6
    10. Week 16: expected 14.4, likely 7.9–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–27.1
    11. Week 17: expected 17.1, likely 9.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–32.3
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Seven of 8 for 38 in the win over the Raiders, 19.05 here, with a TD called back for holding, but he left in the third quarter with a rib injury before returning in the fourth (sources: nbcsports.com, nbcsports.com). The targets came with DJ Moore out, at 5.4 yards a catch. Sleeper tags him questionable, but Buffalo's Week 7 bye gives the ribs time. We lift him to 15.5 from 14, still three under replacement; FantasyCalc's 1,026 pays for the Weeks 1-2 version, sell.

    Why not the projection (16.7) Slightly under Sleeper's 16.7: the Week 6 volume came with DJ Moore out.

    What changed ppg up 14 to 15.5 after 19.05 in Week 6; still T8 under the new 18.5 TE replacement. Rib injury, Week 7 bye.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    14.1
    Above repl.
    -4.4
    Wks 15–17
    15.7
    Games
    10
    WALLAHI on the Beat →
  14. 14TEColston LovelandCHI · @arireddySell15.0+2.0
    1. Week 7: expected 14.7, likely 8.1–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.8
    2. Week 8: expected 13.9, likely 5.4–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.6
    3. Week 9: expected 15.2, likely 8.4–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 4–28.8
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 14.9, likely 8.2–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.1
    6. Week 12: expected 15.7, likely 8.6–21, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–29.7
    7. Week 13: expected 14.8, likely 8.2–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28
    8. Week 14: expected 16.5, likely 9.1–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–31.3
    9. Week 15: expected 14.1, likely 7.7–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–26.6
    10. Week 16: expected 14.8, likely 8.1–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–28
    11. Week 17: expected 15.6, likely 8.6–21, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–29.6
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Six of 7 for 65-75 yards and his first TD of the season in the win at Atlanta, 25.75 here, his best game, with Caleb Williams back at QB (sources: nbcsports.com, rotoballer.com). Williams' return is a real upgrade, so we lift him to 15 from 13. But that's still 12.1 a game over six and below the 18.5 replacement, with New England next. FantasyCalc's 1,376 is still draft-pick money; sell into the bounce.

    Why not the projection (17.1) Under Sleeper's 17.1: one good game in six; 12.1 a game so far.

    What changed ppg up 13 to 15 after a 25.75 Week 6 with Caleb Williams back; still T8 because the TE replacement level rose to 18.5.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    13.7
    Above repl.
    -4.8
    Wks 15–17
    14.8
    Games
    10
    dogwater →
  15. 15TEHunter HenryNE · @skollurHold15.0+1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 15.4, likely 8.5–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 4–29.1
    2. Week 8: expected 16.7, likely 9.2–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–31.6
    3. Week 9: expected 15.2, likely 8.3–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.6
    4. Week 10: expected 15.9, likely 8.8–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–30.1
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 15.2, likely 8.4–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.7
    7. Week 13: expected 14.5, likely 7.9–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.3
    8. Week 14: expected 13.8, likely 5.4–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–26.5
    9. Week 15: expected 14.5, likely 8–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.3
    10. Week 16: expected 15.1, likely 8.3–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.5
    11. Week 17: expected 13.9, likely 5.4–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.7
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Four of 5 for 48 and a fourth-quarter TD in the 26-19 win over the Jets, 22.55 here, his second straight scoring game (source: nbcsports.com). That's 21.7, 19.4 and 22.55 in his last three, but on 4-5 targets, so the touchdowns carry it. We nudge him to 15 from 14; that's still under the 18.5 replacement with a Week 11 bye. At 202 he's a fine hold as skollur's fill-in.

    What changed Tier 7 to 8 even with ppg up 14 to 15: the TE replacement level rose from 14.3 to 18.5 when Hockenson was dropped.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    13.7
    Above repl.
    -4.8
    Wks 15–17
    14.5
    Games
    10
    JSN’s backpack →
  16. 16TEPat FreiermuthPIT · @nikashHold14.5-1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 14.3, likely 7.9–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–27.1
    2. Week 8: expected 14.2, likely 7.8–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–26.8
    3. Week 9: bye or not projected
    4. Week 10: expected 15.2, likely 8.3–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.6
    5. Week 11: expected 14.1, likely 7.8–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–26.7
    6. Week 12: expected 13.6, likely 5.3–20, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–26.1
    7. Week 13: expected 14.7, likely 8.1–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.8
    8. Week 14: expected 14.9, likely 8.2–20, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.2
    9. Week 15: expected 14.7, likely 8.1–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.9
    10. Week 16: expected 14.0, likely 5.4–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.8
    11. Week 17: expected 15.6, likely 8.6–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–29.5
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Two of 3 for 11 in the win over Tampa Bay, 6.35 here, playing through a calf injury that made him questionable, and splitting snaps 54-54 with Darnell Washington (sources: nbcsports.com, rotoballer.com). He's at 16.1 a game but TD-dependent on 4-7 targets. We cut him to 14.5, four under replacement, with a Week 9 bye. At 268 just hold as depth.

    Why not the projection (16.0) Under Sleeper's 16: calf injury and a snap split with Darnell Washington.

    What changed Tier 6 to 8 and ppg 15.5 to 14.5: calf injury and a 6.35 Week 6, and the TE replacement level rose to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    13.2
    Above repl.
    -5.3
    Wks 15–17
    14.8
    Games
    10
    The Naughty Betas →
  17. 17TEHarold FanninCLE · @tsinghSell14.5-2.0
    1. Week 7: expected 15.1, likely 8.3–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.6
    2. Week 8: expected 14.4, likely 7.9–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–27.3
    3. Week 9: expected 14.5, likely 8–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.4
    4. Week 10: expected 14.4, likely 7.9–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–27.1
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 14.5, likely 8–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.4
    7. Week 13: expected 14.7, likely 8.1–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.7
    8. Week 14: expected 14.0, likely 5.5–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.9
    9. Week 15: expected 14.4, likely 7.9–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.3
    10. Week 16: expected 14.3, likely 7.9–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–27.1
    11. Week 17: expected 14.3, likely 7.8–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–27
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    One of 3 for 9 yards in the win over Baltimore, 2.9 here, his second straight one-catch game despite about 89% of the snaps (sources: nbcsports.com, rotoballer.com). Deshaun Watson's struggles and more receivers in the mix leave him at a 10% target share. We cut him to 14.5, four points under the best free agent, with a Week 11 bye. FantasyCalc's 745 is still too much; sell.

    Why not the projection (17.7) Well under Sleeper's 17.7: two straight one-catch games and a 10% target share.

    What changed Tier 6 to 8 and ppg 16.5 to 14.5: two straight one-catch games, and the TE replacement level rose to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    13.1
    Above repl.
    -5.4
    Wks 15–17
    14.3
    Games
    10
    Tua deez nuts →
  18. 18TEDarren WallerCAR · not rostered nowHold12.5new
    1. Week 7: expected 12.7, likely 5–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.4
    2. Week 8: expected 12.5, likely 4.9–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–24
    3. Week 9: expected 11.7, likely 4.5–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–22.4
    4. Week 10: expected 12.8, likely 5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.5
    5. Week 11: expected 12.7, likely 4.9–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.3
    6. Week 12: expected 13.1, likely 5.1–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–25.2
    7. Week 13: expected 11.5, likely 4.5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–22.1
    8. Week 14: expected 12.8, likely 5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.5
    9. Week 15: expected 12.9, likely 5–19, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.9
    10. Week 16: expected 12.7, likely 5–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.4
    11. Week 17: expected 11.9, likely 4.7–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 2–22.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Played through a toe injury and caught nothing on 2 targets in the win over Philadelphia, a zero here, on 36 of 79 snaps (sources: nbcsports.com, nbcsports.com). He has 13 catches for 148 and 2 TDs in five games, 12.8 a game, a TD-dependent part-timer. We're at 12.5, six under replacement and no bye left. At 62 there's nothing to sell; somickey can drop him for Hockenson.

    Why not the projection (14.0) Under Sleeper's 14: part-time snaps and a zero in Week 6.

    What changed New to the board: somickey's TE, 12.8 a game on a part-time role, zero in Week 6.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    12.5
    Above repl.
    -6.0
    Wks 15–17
    12.5
    Games
    11
    somickey →
  19. 19TEMark AndrewsBAL · @ShukyHold13.5-2.5
    1. Week 7: expected 14.0, likely 5.4–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.8
    2. Week 8: expected 13.0, likely 5.1–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.9
    3. Week 9: expected 13.6, likely 5.3–20, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–26.1
    4. Week 10: expected 13.6, likely 5.3–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–26.1
    5. Week 11: expected 12.9, likely 5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.7
    6. Week 12: expected 13.5, likely 5.3–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–26
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 13.9, likely 5.4–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.7
    9. Week 15: expected 13.6, likely 5.3–20, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–26.1
    10. Week 16: expected 13.0, likely 5.1–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–25
    11. Week 17: expected 13.9, likely 5.4–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.6
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    One catch on 3 targets for 4 yards in the 13-10 loss to Cleveland, 3.65 here, while rookie Josh Cuevas out-targeted him and scored (sources: nbcsports.com, rotoballer.com). He hasn't topped 30 yards since Week 2 and Lamar Jackson is still out. We cut him to 13.5, five under replacement. At 351 there's nothing to sell; hold as a bench body or drop for Hockenson.

    Why not the projection (17.4) Well under Sleeper's 17.4: no 30-yard game since Week 2 and a shrinking target share.

    What changed Tier 6 to 8 and ppg 16 to 13.5: Cuevas is taking targets, and the TE replacement level rose to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    12.3
    Above repl.
    -6.2
    Wks 15–17
    13.5
    Games
    10
    To infinity and bijan →
  20. 20TEDalton SchultzHOU · @sishaarHold12.5new
    1. Week 7: expected 12.2, likely 2.9–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–26.3
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 12.6, likely 3–20, 10th–90th percentile 0–27.1
    4. Week 10: expected 12.1, likely 2.9–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–26
    5. Week 11: expected 12.5, likely 3–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–26.9
    6. Week 12: expected 12.5, likely 3–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–26.9
    7. Week 13: expected 12.6, likely 3–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–27.2
    8. Week 14: expected 13.5, likely 3.2–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–29
    9. Week 15: expected 12.7, likely 3–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–27.2
    10. Week 16: expected 12.0, likely 2.8–19, 10th–90th percentile 0–25.8
    11. Week 17: expected 12.7, likely 3–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–27.2
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Four of 6 for 33 in the 34-31 London win over Jacksonville, 12.55 here, leading Houston in targets on a day Stroud threw to 10 players, while Foster Moreau scored twice (source: thefantasyfootballers.com). He has no TD and five games of 35 yards or fewer; one 46.25 game makes his 16.4 average misleading. Marvin Harrison Jr.'s arrival and Tank Dell's expected Week 7 return squeeze him further. At 12.5 he's six under replacement; at 80 just hold or drop.

    Why not the projection (14.9) Under Sleeper's 14.9: no TDs and more receivers arriving in Houston.

    What changed New to the board: sishaar's TE, 16.4 a game inflated by one 46.25 week.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    11.4
    Above repl.
    -7.1
    Wks 15–17
    12.5
    Games
    10
    commish →
  21. 21TETyler HigbeeLAR · not rostered nowSell11.0+2.0
    1. Week 7: expected 10.3, likely 2.5–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.2
    2. Week 8: expected 10.3, likely 2.4–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–22
    3. Week 9: expected 11.8, likely 2.8–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–25.3
    4. Week 10: expected 11.6, likely 2.8–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–25
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 11.1, likely 2.6–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–23.9
    7. Week 13: expected 10.5, likely 2.5–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.6
    8. Week 14: expected 10.7, likely 2.5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.9
    9. Week 15: expected 11.8, likely 2.8–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–25.4
    10. Week 16: expected 10.5, likely 2.5–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.5
    11. Week 17: expected 11.4, likely 2.7–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–24.5
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Four catches for 22 yards and a lost fumble in Week 6, 6.2 here, ending a three-game run of 22+ (source: rotoballer.com). His role exists because Terrance Ferguson is on IR, and Week 8 is the earliest Ferguson can return (source: draftsharks.com); with Ferguson active in Weeks 1-2, Higbee scored 1.2 and 0. Sleeper's 15.2 assumes the starter job all year; we're at 11, blending a usable Week 7 with backup weeks after. Sell to anyone needing a Week 7 TE.

    Why not the projection (15.2) Well under Sleeper's 15.2: Terrance Ferguson can return from IR in Week 8, and Higbee scored 1.2 and 0 when Ferguson played.

    What changed ppg up from 9 to 11 because Sleeper now projects him as the starter; still T8, with Ferguson eligible to return in Week 8.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    10.0
    Above repl.
    -8.5
    Wks 15–17
    11.2
    Games
    10
    Coked up Dakshots →
  22. 22TEKenyon SadiqNYJ · @ShukySell10.5-1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 11.1, likely 4.3–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–21.4
    2. Week 8: expected 10.7, likely 4.2–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–20.5
    3. Week 9: expected 10.1, likely 3.9–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–19.3
    4. Week 10: expected 10.1, likely 3.9–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–19.3
    5. Week 11: expected 10.6, likely 4.1–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–20.4
    6. Week 12: expected 11.8, likely 4.6–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 2–22.6
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 9.7, likely 3.8–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–18.6
    9. Week 15: expected 11.2, likely 4.4–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–21.5
    10. Week 16: expected 10.4, likely 4.1–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–19.9
    11. Week 17: expected 9.6, likely 3.7–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–18.4
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Back from the concussion, one catch on 3 targets for 12 yards in the loss to New England, 4.45 here (source: nbcsports.com). That's 0, 0.3 and 4.45 in three weeks, 10.0 a game overall. We drop the stale Week 6 out tag and cut him to 10.5. 140 on FantasyCalc is still the draft pick; sell, or drop for Hockenson.

    Why not the projection (13.9) Well under Sleeper's 13.9: 4.45 or less in three straight games.

    What changed ppg 11.5 to 10.5 after 4.45 in his return; the Week 6 out tag is removed now that he's back.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    9.6
    Above repl.
    -8.9
    Wks 15–17
    10.4
    Games
    10
    To infinity and bijan →

Rostered since this board was written (not ranked yet): T.J. Hockenson (@somickey), Michael Mayer (@somickey), Chig Okonkwo (@tsingh).

The analyst's notes

The biggest change this week isn't a player: it's replacement level. nikash dropped T.J. Hockenson, and at 18.5 a game the best free-agent tight end now beats most of the league's starters. Only Brock Bowers (29.5), Trey McBride (29), Isaiah Likely (24.5), Sam LaPorta and George Kittle clear him by more than a point a week. Tyler Warren, Juwan Johnson, Harold Fannin, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts and Colston Loveland are all at or below replacement, and most of them fall two or three tiers without their ppg moving much. Receivers go the other way: with Jalen Coker rostered by Predjs, the best free-agent WR is Malik Washington at 13.7, two points lower, so most starting receivers move up a tier.

Injuries did the rest. Davante Adams got hurt on the final drive against Arizona and McVay says 6–10 weeks, so he's out Weeks 7–12 and questionable for 13. Jalen Hurts missed Week 6 with a blood clot in his calf, is on IR with no timetable, and drops from Tier 4 to 8; Tanner McKee (16.3 in his first start) joins the board at 15.5. Breece Hall is out again in Week 7 and questionable in Week 8. Josh Jacobs is the good news: the NFL took him off the exempt list and he's eligible from Week 7, so he goes from Tier 8 to 6.

In our scoring, three quarterback slots still make every starting QB worth something. Jared Goff and Bryce Young are Tier 2 at about 25 a game with no bye left, Malik Willis is a starter the market prices like a free agent, and even J.J. McCarthy gets 6 a game for a package role that scored 21.45 in Week 6.

Big moves

Risers.

  • Malik Nabers (17.5 → 21, Tier 7 → 5): 12 catches, 165 yards and two TDs (31.85), his third straight 25-point game. The Giants' QB change from Jameis Winston to McCarthy is the risk.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Tier 2 → 1, RB1 at 31): nothing changed but the calendar. The bye is behind him.
  • Drake Maye (22.5 → 24, Tier 3 → 2): a third straight game over 27.
  • Trevor Lawrence (23 → 24.5): 34.15 in Week 6, the best QB score in our league. A buy at 4,992.
  • Chuba Hubbard (20.5 → 21.5, RB7 → RB4): no bye left and Jonathon Brooks out into November.
  • Puka Nacua (25.5 → 26, Tier 4 → 3): Adams' targets go to him.
  • Justin Jefferson (Tier 7 → 5) and Ja'Marr Chase (Tier 5 → 4): same ppg, lower WR replacement.
  • Josh Jacobs (13.5 → 14.5, Tier 8 → 6): back from the exempt list.
  • New: Jalen Coker (16, Tier 6, buy), Tanner McKee (15.5, Tier 6), Kyle Pitts (16 after 31.0, still Tier 8 against the new TE bar), Braelon Allen and Blake Corum (Tier 7, buys as handcuffs).

Fallers.

  • Jalen Hurts (18.5 → 0, Tier 4 → 8): blood clot, IR, no timetable.
  • Davante Adams (out Weeks 7–12): still 14.5 a game when he plays, which makes him a playoff stash.
  • Cam Skattebo (12.5 → 7, Tier 7 → 8): six snaps and no touches after his fourth fumble; Najee Harris has the job.
  • Bijan Robinson (27.5 → 26.5, Tier 2 → 3) and Derrick Henry (24 → 23, Tier 3 → 4): 8.85 and 6.15 in Week 6, and Henry lost a fumble.
  • Tyler Warren (Tier 4 → 7): the groin injury kept him out of Week 6, and Week 7 is questionable.
  • Juwan Johnson (19.5 → 17.5, Tier 5 → 8), Harold Fannin (16.5 → 14.5) and Mark Andrews (16 → 13.5): low ppg and the higher TE bar.
  • Jameis Winston (17 → 14): two interceptions and benched for McCarthy. Dak Prescott (23.5 → 22, Tier 2 → 3): four interceptions in two weeks.

Where we disagree with the market

Market too high.

  • Lamar Jackson (7,610, sell): FantasyCalc's second-priciest QB has missed two games with the ankle and is a coin flip for Week 7. At 26 a game he's worth about what Goff and Young are here, and they cost half as much.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (8,456) and Justin Jefferson (5,642), sell: priced as top receivers, but Chase is at 17.1 a game with two games under 7, and Jefferson plays in a run-first offense at 18.
  • George Kittle (3,302), Tyler Warren (2,448), Tucker Kraft (1,533) and Colston Loveland (1,376), sell: all priced as starting tight ends, and only Kittle beats the 18.5 free-agent bar here, by about a point a week.
  • Saquon Barkley (2,672) and Christian McCaffrey (7,328): Barkley averaged 7.1 here before the hamstring. McCaffrey's 31.95 on Monday was his best game, and at 22.7 a game he's priced above James Cook and Jonathan Taylor for about the same output. Hold McCaffrey, sell Barkley.

Market too low.

  • Jared Goff (4,163) and Bryce Young (3,223), buy: Tier 2 quarterbacks at about 25 a game with no bye left, priced like QB2s.
  • Chuba Hubbard (3,926), Bhayshul Tuten (2,743) and Ollie Gordon (947), buy: lead backs, and our carry and first-down scoring pays for volume.
  • Jalen Coker (1,959) and Matthew Golden (2,761), buy: Tier 6 starters priced like depth. Coker led Carolina with 13 targets in his return.
  • Malik Willis (91), buy: Miami's starter, about 6.6 points a week above a free agent in a league with three QB slots.

How it works

Every rostered player gets a week-by-week projection in our league's scoring for the rest of the season (TE premium and first-down bonuses, carries, return yards, the lot). The starting point is Sleeper's weekly projections run through our scoring. The analyst then sets how good the player is when he plays (ppg) and which weeks he'll miss, and has to say why whenever the call differs from the projection.

Rank is by points above replacement: what the player adds per week across the rest of the season, byes and missed weeks included, minus what the best free agent at that position would give you. With three QB-eligible slots and almost no free-agent QBs, that is why quarterbacks sit so high. Anything that moved since last week comes with a reason. Trades are judged by rebuilding both teams' best lineups every remaining week.

Each week's range comes from history: every player-week of the previous season scored in our settings, comparing what players actually scored with what they were projected to score, by position and projection level. The analyst's call sets the middle, and a questionable week is a coin flip between zero and a normal game.

Market prices quoted in takes are FantasyCalc redraft trade values (10 teams, 2 QB, PPR). Projections: Sleeper weekly projections, Weeks 7–17, scored with our league settings (npm run score); fetched 2026-10-20.