Dying on ImpactEst. 2021 · 2026 season

Week 6 boardUpdated Tue, Oct 20 · Weeks 7–17

Week 6 Player Board: Hockenson's Release Lifts the TE Bar to 18.5, Malik Nabers Jumps to 21

All 140 rostered players valued for Weeks 7–17. T.J. Hockenson's release makes the best free-agent TE worth 18.5 a game, which drops every tight end but Bowers, McBride, Likely, LaPorta and Kittle to replacement level or below. Malik Nabers rises from 17.5 to 21 after three straight 25-point games, Davante Adams is out Weeks 7–12, Jalen Hurts is on IR with a blood clot, and Josh Jacobs is back from the exempt list at 14.5. How it works

Replacement (best free agent, pts/week): QB 8.4 · RB 11.7 · WR 13.7 · TE 18.5 · K 10.3

  1. 1RBJahmyr GibbsDET · @skollurHold31.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 30.5, likely 20.4–37.5, 10th–90th percentile 14–51.8
    2. Week 8: expected 28.4, likely 19–35, 10th–90th percentile 13.1–48.3
    3. Week 9: expected 32.7, likely 21.9–40.2, 10th–90th percentile 15–55.5
    4. Week 10: expected 30.9, likely 20.7–38, 10th–90th percentile 14.2–52.5
    5. Week 11: expected 30.0, likely 20.1–37, 10th–90th percentile 13.8–51.1
    6. Week 12: expected 33.1, likely 22.2–40.8, 10th–90th percentile 15.2–56.3
    7. Week 13: expected 30.0, likely 20.1–36.9, 10th–90th percentile 13.8–51
    8. Week 14: expected 31.8, likely 21.3–39.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.6–54
    9. Week 15: expected 28.2, likely 18.9–34.6, 10th–90th percentile 13–47.9
    10. Week 16: expected 32.7, likely 21.9–40.2, 10th–90th percentile 15.1–55.6
    11. Week 17: expected 32.9, likely 22–40.4, 10th–90th percentile 15.1–55.9
    Points by week, 0–60. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Bye in Week 6, so his 35.2 a game here through five weeks, the best of any back, stands. He has the league's heaviest touch load and catches enough passes that no game script sinks him; the bye is behind him, so he's projected every remaining week. We stay at 31, a point above Sleeper; at 10,720 he's priced as the top back and nobody sells him; hold.

    Why not the projection (30.1) 31 a game, above Sleeper's 30.1: 35.2 a game here through five weeks on the league's heaviest touch load.

    What changed Up from Tier 2 to 1 with the same 31 ppg: his Week 6 bye is behind him, so he's projected all 11 remaining weeks, about 19 points a week above replacement.

    Tier
    1
    Per week
    31.0
    Above repl.
    +19.3
    Wks 15–17
    31.3
    Games
    11
    JSN’s backpack →
  2. 2RBKenneth WalkerKC · @ShukyHold27.0+1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 23.9, likely 16–29.4, 10th–90th percentile 11–40.7
    2. Week 8: expected 26.8, likely 17.9–32.9, 10th–90th percentile 12.3–45.5
    3. Week 9: expected 27.4, likely 18.3–33.7, 10th–90th percentile 12.6–46.5
    4. Week 10: expected 26.7, likely 17.9–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 12.3–45.3
    5. Week 11: expected 28.4, likely 19–34.9, 10th–90th percentile 13.1–48.3
    6. Week 12: expected 27.0, likely 18.1–33.2, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–45.9
    7. Week 13: expected 25.8, likely 17.3–31.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–43.9
    8. Week 14: expected 29.6, likely 19.8–36.4, 10th–90th percentile 13.6–50.4
    9. Week 15: expected 27.6, likely 18.5–33.9, 10th–90th percentile 12.7–46.9
    10. Week 16: expected 26.2, likely 17.5–32.2, 10th–90th percentile 12–44.5
    11. Week 17: expected 27.7, likely 18.6–34.1, 10th–90th percentile 12.8–47.2
    Points by week, 0–55. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    31.95 here in Week 6, his fifth game over 24 in five tries, and he's at 32.5 a game. He's played every week with the lead role and Emmett Johnson as a change-of-pace back, and with no bye left he's projected all 11 remaining weeks, which makes him the clear RB2 behind Gibbs. TD rate will cool, so we go up one to 27, not his pace. At 8,814 he's priced below Bijan for more in our scoring; hold, and don't sell for anything less than a top-three back.

    Why not the projection (25.1) 27, above Sleeper's 25.1: 32.5 a game here through five games with a steady lead role; we shade it down for TD regression.

    What changed Up a point from 26 after another 30-point game (31.95); he stays the clear RB2 behind Gibbs.

    Tier
    2
    Per week
    27.0
    Above repl.
    +15.3
    Wks 15–17
    27.2
    Games
    11
    To infinity and bijan →
  3. 3RBBijan RobinsonATL · @ShukyHold26.5-1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 26.7, likely 17.9–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 12.3–45.4
    2. Week 8: expected 25.4, likely 17–31.3, 10th–90th percentile 11.7–43.2
    3. Week 9: expected 29.0, likely 19.4–35.6, 10th–90th percentile 13.3–49.3
    4. Week 10: expected 25.2, likely 16.9–31, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–42.9
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 24.1, likely 16.1–29.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–40.9
    7. Week 13: expected 29.0, likely 19.4–35.6, 10th–90th percentile 13.3–49.2
    8. Week 14: expected 25.8, likely 17.3–31.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–43.9
    9. Week 15: expected 27.0, likely 18.1–33.2, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–45.9
    10. Week 16: expected 25.6, likely 17.1–31.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.8–43.4
    11. Week 17: expected 27.8, likely 18.6–34.2, 10th–90th percentile 12.8–47.2
    Points by week, 0–50. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Nine carries for 61 yards and two catches for minus 8 in the loss to Chicago; Atlanta abandoned the run trailing by three scores (source: nbcsports.com). That's 8.85 here, his second straight game under 20 after 32.85 and 42.2, and he's down to 25 a game. The touch volume and 40-point ceiling haven't gone anywhere, but game script has now beaten him twice and the bye still costs a week, so he drops to the top of Tier 3. At 9,926 the market still prices him as a top-two back; hold, since selling low on two games is how you lose a trade.

    What changed Down a point to 26.5 and out of Tier 2 after 8.85 against Chicago, his second straight game under 20; his remaining bye now puts his per-week value below Walker's and Gibbs's by a clear margin.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    24.1
    Above repl.
    +12.4
    Wks 15–17
    26.8
    Games
    10
    To infinity and bijan →
  4. 4RBChuba HubbardCAR · @PredjsBuy21.5+1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 21.9, likely 14.7–27, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–37.3
    2. Week 8: expected 22.8, likely 15.3–28.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–38.8
    3. Week 9: expected 21.4, likely 14.4–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.4
    4. Week 10: expected 22.6, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–38.4
    5. Week 11: expected 20.8, likely 13.9–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–35.4
    6. Week 12: expected 20.6, likely 13.8–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–35
    7. Week 13: expected 19.6, likely 12.2–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 9–32.8
    8. Week 14: expected 22.8, likely 15.3–28, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–38.7
    9. Week 15: expected 23.8, likely 15.9–29.2, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–40.4
    10. Week 16: expected 20.8, likely 13.9–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–35.3
    11. Week 17: expected 19.9, likely 12.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–33.3
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    24.7 here in Week 6, and he's at 23.4 a game in five games, with every game at 17 or better. Jonathon Brooks is out at least six weeks after core-muscle surgery (source: draftsharks.com), so the job is his alone into November, and with no bye left he's projected all 11 weeks. Brooks's return is the only thing between him and Tier 3, which is why we stop at 21.5. At 3,926 he's priced like a flex for a top-eight back in our scoring; buy.

    Why not the projection (19.8) 21.5, above Sleeper's 19.8: 23.4 a game here as Carolina's only back while Brooks is out.

    What changed Up a point to 21.5 after 24.7 in Week 6; his per-week value now sits at the top of Tier 4.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    21.5
    Above repl.
    +9.8
    Wks 15–17
    21.5
    Games
    11
    Coked up Dakshots →
  5. 5RBDerrick HenryBAL · @SettytsHold23.0-1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 24.3, likely 16.3–29.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–41.2
    2. Week 8: expected 22.7, likely 15.2–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–38.5
    3. Week 9: expected 21.6, likely 14.5–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.7
    4. Week 10: expected 23.2, likely 15.6–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–39.5
    5. Week 11: expected 24.9, likely 16.7–30.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–42.3
    6. Week 12: expected 22.0, likely 14.8–27.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–37.5
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 21.8, likely 14.6–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 10–37
    9. Week 15: expected 21.9, likely 14.7–26.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–37.2
    10. Week 16: expected 22.6, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–38.4
    11. Week 17: expected 24.9, likely 16.7–30.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–42.3
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Seventeen carries for 58 yards and a lost fourth-quarter fumble in the upset loss to Cleveland, with Lamar Jackson out again (source: nbcsports.com). That's 6.15 here, the fumble costing 4, after five straight games over 20; he's at 23.3 a game. Week 6 was his floor with a backup QB and a bad script, not a role change, but Baltimore is 1-5 and Jackson's ankle keeps the boxes heavy. We trim a point to 23, which drops him to the top of Tier 4; at 6,416 he's cheaper than McCaffrey and Taylor for as much output; hold.

    Why not the projection (19.8) 23, above Sleeper's 19.8: he's at 23.3 a game here on a workhorse carry load that our carry and first-down scoring rewards.

    What changed Down a point to 23 and from Tier 3 to 4 after a 6.15 with a lost fumble; Lamar Jackson's absence keeps the offense limited.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    20.9
    Above repl.
    +9.2
    Wks 15–17
    23.1
    Games
    10
    WALLAHI on the Beat →
  6. 6RBJonathan TaylorIND · @somickeyHold23.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 20.9, likely 14–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–35.6
    2. Week 8: expected 21.4, likely 14.3–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–36.3
    3. Week 9: expected 24.5, likely 16.4–30.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–41.7
    4. Week 10: expected 24.1, likely 16.1–29.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–40.9
    5. Week 11: expected 22.0, likely 14.7–27.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–37.4
    6. Week 12: expected 24.7, likely 16.5–30.3, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–41.9
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 21.2, likely 14.2–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–36.1
    9. Week 15: expected 23.2, likely 15.5–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–39.4
    10. Week 16: expected 25.3, likely 16.9–31.1, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–43
    11. Week 17: expected 22.3, likely 14.9–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–37.9
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    24 here in Week 6, a bounce-back after his 14.6 dud, and he's at 23.3 a game with a 13-to-34 range. Rookie Seth McGowan has been taking a quarter of the snaps (source: draftsharks.com), which caps his weekly ceiling, but in Colts wins he gets 20-plus carries and our carry and first-down scoring pays. We stay at 23, a bit under Sleeper's 23.9. At 7,688 he's priced as a top-five back for top-10 output; hold, but don't buy.

    Why not the projection (23.9) 23, a bit under Sleeper's 23.9: McGowan's snap share trims his ceiling.

    What changed Same 23 ppg, but slips from RB5 to RB6 as Hubbard's 21.5 with no bye left passes him.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    20.9
    Above repl.
    +9.2
    Wks 15–17
    23.6
    Games
    10
    somickey →
  7. 7RBChristian McCaffreySF · @somickeyHold22.5+0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 21.1, likely 14.1–26, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–35.9
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 24.1, likely 16.2–29.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–41
    4. Week 10: expected 24.4, likely 16.3–30, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–41.4
    5. Week 11: expected 21.2, likely 14.2–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–36.1
    6. Week 12: expected 21.5, likely 14.4–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.5
    7. Week 13: expected 24.1, likely 16.2–29.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–41
    8. Week 14: expected 21.8, likely 14.6–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 10–37.1
    9. Week 15: expected 23.2, likely 15.5–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–39.4
    10. Week 16: expected 21.9, likely 14.7–26.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–37.2
    11. Week 17: expected 21.8, likely 14.6–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 10–37.1
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    31.95 here in the Monday night win over Washington, his best game of the season, and he's at 22.7 a game. The 49ers still manage his carries, so the floor depends on catches and TDs rather than a 20-carry workload. Sleeper projects 24.9; we're at 22.5, Tier 4 with the Week 8 bye still to come. At 7,328 he's priced near Taylor and above Cook for about the same output in our scoring; hold, and sell only for a premium.

    Why not the projection (24.9) 22.5, under Sleeper's 24.9: he's at 22.7 a game here on a managed workload, and only one game over 25.2.

    What changed Up 0.5 to 22.5 after a season-best 31.95 in Week 6; lean moves from sell to hold.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    20.5
    Above repl.
    +8.8
    Wks 15–17
    22.3
    Games
    10
    somickey →
  8. 8RBJames CookBUF · @tsinghHold21.5+1.0
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 20.8, likely 13.9–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–35.3
    3. Week 9: expected 19.7, likely 12.2–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–32.9
    4. Week 10: expected 21.1, likely 14.2–26, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–35.9
    5. Week 11: expected 22.5, likely 15.1–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–38.2
    6. Week 12: expected 20.7, likely 13.8–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–35.1
    7. Week 13: expected 21.5, likely 14.4–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.5
    8. Week 14: expected 21.8, likely 14.6–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 10–37.1
    9. Week 15: expected 23.3, likely 15.6–28.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–39.7
    10. Week 16: expected 21.3, likely 14.3–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–36.2
    11. Week 17: expected 22.3, likely 14.9–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–37.8
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    30.35 here in Week 6, his best game of the season, and he's at 21.9 a game with five straight games over 18. He barely catches passes, so close losses cap him, but he's had the volume in Buffalo's wins and our carry and first-down scoring pays for it. We go up a point to 21.5; his Week 7 bye is next. At 6,662 he's priced above Kyren, Javonte and Hubbard for about the same output; hold, or sell if someone pays for the name.

    Why not the projection (20.1) 21.5, above Sleeper's 20.1: five straight games over 18 here, 21.9 a game.

    What changed Up a point to 21.5 after 30.35 in Week 6.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    19.5
    Above repl.
    +7.8
    Wks 15–17
    22.3
    Games
    10
    Tua deez nuts →
  9. 9RBKyren WilliamsLAR · @skollurHold21.0-1.5
    1. Week 7: expected 22.1, likely 14.8–27.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–37.5
    2. Week 8: expected 21.5, likely 14.4–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.6
    3. Week 9: expected 21.4, likely 14.3–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.4
    4. Week 10: expected 21.5, likely 14.4–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.5
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 21.6, likely 14.5–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.8
    7. Week 13: expected 20.2, likely 13.6–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–34.4
    8. Week 14: expected 19.9, likely 12.3–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–33.2
    9. Week 15: expected 22.6, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–38.4
    10. Week 16: expected 19.4, likely 12–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 8.9–32.3
    11. Week 17: expected 20.1, likely 13.5–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–34.2
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Ten carries for 50 yards and three catches in the 18-16 loss to Arizona: a season-low 13 touches, and Blake Corum got within two of him (sources: rotowire.com; nbcsports.com). That's 12.2 here after three straight games over 22, and he's still at 22.7 a game. He played 71% of the snaps, so this is a trim, not a demotion, but Corum's last two games (17.9, 15.95) make a real split possible. We cut to 21; at 5,089 he's still fairly priced, so we move from buy to hold.

    Why not the projection (22.3) 21, below Sleeper's 22.3: Corum's growing share in Weeks 5-6 cuts into his touches.

    What changed Down 1.5 to 21 and buy to hold: season-low 13 touches in Week 6 with Corum two touches behind.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    19.1
    Above repl.
    +7.4
    Wks 15–17
    20.7
    Games
    10
    JSN’s backpack →
  10. 10RBJavonte WilliamsDAL · @PredjsBuy20.5-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 19.6, likely 12.1–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 9–32.7
    2. Week 8: expected 21.4, likely 14.3–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.4
    3. Week 9: expected 21.7, likely 14.5–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 10–36.9
    4. Week 10: expected 19.9, likely 12.3–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–33.2
    5. Week 11: expected 21.4, likely 14.3–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–36.4
    6. Week 12: expected 19.7, likely 12.2–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–32.9
    7. Week 13: expected 19.2, likely 11.9–24, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–32
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected
    9. Week 15: expected 19.6, likely 12.1–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 9–32.7
    10. Week 16: expected 19.8, likely 12.3–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–33.1
    11. Week 17: expected 22.4, likely 15–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–38.1
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    15.25 here in Week 6, his second straight game in the mid-teens, and he's at 20.6 a game this season. He still has the Cowboys' goal-line job, which is what carries him, and the passing-game role is small, so non-TD weeks land around 12. We trim half a point to 20.5, under Sleeper's 22.2. At 3,952 he's priced well below Cook and McCaffrey for nearly the same output in our scoring; buy.

    Why not the projection (22.2) 20.5, under Sleeper's 22.2: he's at 20.6 a game here and depends on goal-line TDs.

    What changed Down half a point to 20.5 after two mid-teens games (16.6, 15.25).

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    18.6
    Above repl.
    +6.9
    Wks 15–17
    20.6
    Games
    10
    Coked up Dakshots →
  11. 11RBAshton JeantyLV · @tsinghSell18.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 17.7, likely 9.3–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–32.4
    2. Week 8: expected 18.7, likely 9.8–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–34.3
    3. Week 9: expected 17.6, likely 9.3–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–32.4
    4. Week 10: expected 17.2, likely 9.1–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–31.7
    5. Week 11: expected 18.3, likely 9.6–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–33.6
    6. Week 12: expected 18.4, likely 9.7–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 6–33.8
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 19.3, likely 10.2–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–35.5
    9. Week 15: expected 18.4, likely 9.7–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 6–33.8
    10. Week 16: expected 19.7, likely 10.3–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–36.2
    11. Week 17: expected 19.7, likely 10.3–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–36.2
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Ten carries for 22 yards and a TD plus four catches for 36 in the loss to Buffalo, his first rushing TD of the season (source: nbcsports.com). That's 18 here and 20.2 a game, but he's at 3.3 yards a carry or worse and Mike Washington took 10 touches to his 14. The receiving work keeps a floor; the Raiders' losing scripts cap the carries. We stay at 18.5; at 4,332 he's priced above Hubbard and Javonte for less, so sell.

    Why not the projection (19.4) 18.5, under Sleeper's 19.4: poor efficiency and blowout losses cap his carries, and Mike Washington is taking a share.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    16.8
    Above repl.
    +5.1
    Wks 15–17
    19.3
    Games
    10
    Tua deez nuts →
  12. 12RBOllie GordonMIA · @vtandaleBuy16.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 16.3, likely 10.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–27.2
    2. Week 8: expected 15.8, likely 9.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–26.3
    3. Week 9: expected 17.0, likely 10.6–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–28.5
    4. Week 10: expected 16.3, likely 10.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–27.2
    5. Week 11: expected 15.4, likely 9.6–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–25.8
    6. Week 12: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–26
    7. Week 13: expected 15.5, likely 9.6–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–25.8
    8. Week 14: expected 16.9, likely 10.5–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–28.3
    9. Week 15: expected 15.9, likely 9.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–26.5
    10. Week 16: expected 15.9, likely 9.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–26.6
    11. Week 17: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–26.1
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Bye in Week 6 after three straight games between 18.5 and 20.25 since De'Von Achane's season-ending ACL tear. Sleeper still lists him questionable, but he left and returned in Week 5 (source: rotowire.com) and we found no report that he'll miss Week 7 against the Jets. He's the lead back in a bad offense, and with the bye done he's projected every remaining week, which lifts him into Tier 5. At 947 he's priced as a free agent for a starter's role; buy.

    What changed Up from Tier 6 to 5 with the same 16 ppg: the Week 6 bye is behind him, so he's projected all 11 remaining weeks.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    16.0
    Above repl.
    +4.3
    Wks 15–17
    15.8
    Games
    11
    96 bulls →
  13. 13RBBhayshul TutenJAX · @PredjsBuy17.5+1.0
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 18.1, likely 12.6–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–27.7
    3. Week 9: expected 16.4, likely 11.4–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–25.2
    4. Week 10: expected 17.4, likely 12.1–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–26.7
    5. Week 11: expected 18.3, likely 12.7–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–28.1
    6. Week 12: expected 17.5, likely 12.2–21, 10th–90th percentile 10–26.9
    7. Week 13: expected 18.5, likely 12.9–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–28.4
    8. Week 14: expected 16.6, likely 11.5–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–25.5
    9. Week 15: expected 16.4, likely 11.4–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–25.3
    10. Week 16: expected 18.1, likely 12.6–21.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–27.9
    11. Week 17: expected 17.4, likely 12.1–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–26.7
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    27.65 here in the London win over Houston, his best game of the season, after five straight games between 13.6 and 20.3; he's at 18.1 a game. He's the Jaguars' lead back on 20-carry volume, which our carry and first-down scoring rewards, though he still loses some passing downs. We go up a point to 17.5; his Week 7 bye is next. At 2,743 he's priced as a backup for a starter's role; buy.

    Why not the projection (16.8) 17.5, above Sleeper's 16.8: he's at 18.1 a game here on a steady lead-back workload.

    What changed Up a point to 17.5 after a season-best 27.65 in Week 6.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    15.9
    Above repl.
    +4.2
    Wks 15–17
    17.3
    Games
    10
    Coked up Dakshots →
  14. 14RBJaylen WarrenPIT · @ShukyHold17.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 18.8, likely 11.7–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 8.7–31.5
    2. Week 8: expected 17.1, likely 10.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–28.6
    3. Week 9: bye or not projected
    4. Week 10: expected 19.1, likely 11.8–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–31.8
    5. Week 11: expected 16.2, likely 10.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–27.1
    6. Week 12: expected 17.2, likely 10.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–28.7
    7. Week 13: expected 17.0, likely 10.6–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–28.5
    8. Week 14: expected 16.4, likely 10.2–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.6–27.4
    9. Week 15: expected 16.9, likely 10.4–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–28.1
    10. Week 16: expected 18.8, likely 11.6–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 8.6–31.3
    11. Week 17: expected 17.9, likely 11.1–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–29.9
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Fourteen carries for 50 yards and two catches for 28 in the win over Tampa Bay, with Rico Dowdle back from the toe and his snap share down from 92% to 75% (source: draftsharks.com). That's 13 here; he still took every third-down snap and most of the goal-line work, so he's the lead back, just not the only one. We stay at 17.5, under his 20.6 pace, since Week 5's 42.65 came on two long TDs. At 2,904 he's priced about right; hold.

    Why not the projection (18.9) 17.5, under Sleeper's 18.9: Dowdle's return cuts his snap share to about 75%.

    What changed Same 17.5 ppg; slips from RB12 to RB13 as Ollie Gordon, with his bye done, passes him.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    15.9
    Above repl.
    +4.2
    Wks 15–17
    17.9
    Games
    10
    To infinity and bijan →
  15. 15RBChase BrownCIN · @vtandaleSell15.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 14.9, likely 9.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–24.8
    2. Week 8: expected 16.0, likely 9.9–20, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–26.7
    3. Week 9: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–25
    4. Week 10: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–25.1
    5. Week 11: expected 15.9, likely 9.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–26.5
    6. Week 12: expected 16.3, likely 10.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–27.3
    7. Week 13: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–25.1
    8. Week 14: expected 14.7, likely 9.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–24.5
    9. Week 15: expected 16.5, likely 10.2–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.6–27.6
    10. Week 16: expected 16.2, likely 10–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–27
    11. Week 17: expected 14.9, likely 9.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–24.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Bye in Week 6 after 7.4 against Miami, when Samaje Perine out-carried him and ran better (source: draftsharks.com). He's at 15.3 a game here, under 4 yards a carry for weeks, and the split backfield caps him; route volume is what keeps a floor. We stay at 15.5, far under Sleeper's 19.1. With the bye behind him he's projected every week, which lifts him into Tier 5, but at 3,640 he's still priced as a starter; sell.

    Why not the projection (19.1) 15.5, well under Sleeper's 19.1: he's at 15.3 a game here in a split with Perine.

    What changed Up a tier to 5 with the same 15.5 ppg: the Week 6 bye is behind him, so he's projected all 11 remaining weeks.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    15.5
    Above repl.
    +3.8
    Wks 15–17
    15.9
    Games
    11
    96 bulls →
  16. 16RBD'Andre SwiftCHI · @tsinghHold17.0+1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 17.3, likely 10.7–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 8–28.9
    2. Week 8: expected 15.7, likely 9.7–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–26.2
    3. Week 9: expected 16.2, likely 10–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–27
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 17.6, likely 10.9–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–29.5
    6. Week 12: expected 18.1, likely 11.2–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 8.3–30.2
    7. Week 13: expected 16.0, likely 9.9–20, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–26.7
    8. Week 14: expected 17.6, likely 10.9–22, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–29.4
    9. Week 15: expected 16.5, likely 10.2–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.6–27.6
    10. Week 16: expected 17.2, likely 10.6–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–28.7
    11. Week 17: expected 18.3, likely 11.3–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.4–30.5
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    26.1 here in Week 6 with Kyle Monangai out again with thumb and toe injuries (source: nbcsports.com). That's two solo weeks at 19.3 and 26.1, against 14.65 or less in the three games Monangai played. Monangai is week-to-week, so Swift could have another solo week or two, but he's a committee back once Monangai is healthy. We go up a point to 17, still under Sleeper's 18.3; at 3,204 he's priced fairly now, so sell becomes hold.

    Why not the projection (18.3) 17, under Sleeper's 18.3: Monangai splits the work when healthy.

    What changed Up a point to 17 and from Tier 6 to 5 after 26.1 with Monangai out; lean moves from sell to hold.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    15.5
    Above repl.
    +3.8
    Wks 15–17
    17.3
    Games
    10
    Tua deez nuts →
  17. 17RBBucky IrvingTB · @ShukyHold16.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 17.8, likely 9.3–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–32.6
    2. Week 8: expected 15.6, likely 8.2–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–28.7
    3. Week 9: expected 17.5, likely 9.2–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–32.1
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 17.6, likely 9.2–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–32.3
    6. Week 12: expected 17.5, likely 9.2–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–32.1
    7. Week 13: expected 16.3, likely 8.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–30
    8. Week 14: expected 15.3, likely 8–20, 10th–90th percentile 5–28.1
    9. Week 15: expected 17.0, likely 8.9–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–31.2
    10. Week 16: expected 15.5, likely 8.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–28.5
    11. Week 17: expected 15.0, likely 7.9–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–27.5
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    10.15 here in the loss in Pittsburgh, back to the low teens after Week 5's 36.15, and he's at 17.2 a game with two other games near 10. Todd Bowles splits the backfield work, so his range is the widest of the Tier 5 backs, which is why he's marked high-volatility. We stay at 16.5, under Sleeper's 18.3. At 2,395 he's priced about right; hold.

    Why not the projection (18.3) 16.5, under Sleeper's 18.3: a three-way backfield split gives him three games near 10 in six.

    What changed Same 16.5 ppg; slips from RB14 to RB17 as Gordon, Swift and Chase Brown pass him.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    15.0
    Above repl.
    +3.3
    Wks 15–17
    15.8
    Games
    10
    To infinity and bijan →
  18. 18RBJosh JacobsGB · @skollurHold14.5+1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 13.5, likely 7.3–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–25
    2. Week 8: expected 16.2, likely 10–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–27
    3. Week 9: expected 14.4, likely 8.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–24.1
    4. Week 10: expected 13.1, likely 7.1–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.2
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 13.4, likely 7.3–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–24.9
    7. Week 13: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 7–25.3
    8. Week 14: expected 14.4, likely 8.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–24
    9. Week 15: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 7–25.4
    10. Week 16: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–26.1
    11. Week 17: expected 14.0, likely 7.6–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–25.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    The NFL is taking him off the Commissioner's Exempt List, and he's eligible to play Oct. 25 at Detroit after missing six games (source: news4jax.com). The league's conduct investigation is still open, so a suspension is still possible later, which is the risk here. Green Bay has the league's lowest rushing average without him, so the lead role is waiting, but he's had no game reps and the line is struggling; we have him at 14.5, under Sleeper's 16.5. At 2,470 he's priced fairly for a back who's suddenly playable; hold.

    Why not the projection (16.5) 14.5, under Sleeper's 16.5: no game reps this season and Green Bay's run game is last in the league.

    What changed No longer out: he's off the exempt list and eligible from Week 7 (we had him out through Week 8, questionable 9-10); up a point to 14.5 and from Tier 8 to 6.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    13.2
    Above repl.
    +1.5
    Wks 15–17
    14.9
    Games
    10
    JSN’s backpack →
  19. 19RBBreece HallNYJ · @somickey · out Wk 7Hold17.0–
    1. Week 7: out
    2. Week 8: expected 9.0, likely 0–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–25 (questionable)
    3. Week 9: expected 15.9, likely 9.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–26.6
    4. Week 10: expected 16.8, likely 10.4–21, 10th–90th percentile 7.7–28
    5. Week 11: expected 17.1, likely 10.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–28.5
    6. Week 12: expected 17.8, likely 11.1–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–29.8
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 16.7, likely 10.4–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.7–27.9
    9. Week 15: expected 17.3, likely 10.7–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–28.8
    10. Week 16: expected 17.1, likely 10.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–28.5
    11. Week 17: expected 15.2, likely 9.5–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 7–25.5
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He's missed Weeks 4-6 with the quad, still hadn't returned to team drills as of Oct. 16, and remains week-to-week (source: rotowire.com). We have him out Week 7 and Week 8 as a coin flip; Sleeper projects him to play both. When healthy he's the lead back with a steady receiving role, worth about 17 here, but Braelon Allen has run well enough (21 and 16.65 the last two weeks) to keep some work. At 2,830 the injury is priced in; hold.

    Why not the projection (16.4) Out Week 7 and questionable Week 8: three straight missed games with the quad and no return to team drills as of Oct. 16.

    What changed Out Week 7 and questionable Week 8 (was questionable Week 6 only) after a third missed game; drops from Tier 5 to 6.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    13.0
    Above repl.
    +1.3
    Wks 15–17
    16.5
    Games
    8.5
    somickey →
  20. 20RBQuinshon JudkinsCLE · @SettytsHold14.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 7.5, likely 0–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–20.7 (questionable)
    2. Week 8: expected 13.2, likely 7.1–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.4
    3. Week 9: expected 14.8, likely 9.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–24.8
    4. Week 10: expected 13.4, likely 7.2–18, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.7
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 14.4, likely 9–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–24.1
    7. Week 13: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 7–25.5
    8. Week 14: expected 13.0, likely 7–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–24
    9. Week 15: expected 14.6, likely 9.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–24.4
    10. Week 16: expected 12.5, likely 6.8–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–23.1
    11. Week 17: expected 14.3, likely 8.9–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–23.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He missed Week 6 against Baltimore after testing the ankle in pregame warmups, his first absence of the season (source: nbcsports.com). Sleeper lists him out but projects him for Week 7, so we have that week as a coin flip. When healthy he has nearly all of Cleveland's running-back carries, worth about 14 here, and Dylan Sampson is still on the mend. At 1,311 he's priced about right; hold until the ankle is clear.

    What changed Questionable week moves from 6 to 7 after he missed Week 6 with the ankle.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    12.1
    Above repl.
    +0.4
    Wks 15–17
    13.8
    Games
    9.5
    WALLAHI on the Beat →
  21. 21RBRhamondre StevensonNE · @arireddyHold13.0-1.5
    1. Week 7: expected 14.1, likely 8.8–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–23.6
    2. Week 8: expected 13.8, likely 7.5–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–25.6
    3. Week 9: expected 13.2, likely 7.2–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.5
    4. Week 10: expected 14.1, likely 8.7–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–23.5
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 13.1, likely 7.1–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.2
    7. Week 13: expected 12.8, likely 6.9–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–23.7
    8. Week 14: expected 11.7, likely 6.3–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–21.7
    9. Week 15: expected 12.2, likely 6.6–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–22.6
    10. Week 16: expected 12.8, likely 6.9–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–23.6
    11. Week 17: expected 12.6, likely 6.8–17, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–23.3
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Fourteen carries for 36 yards and no targets in the loss to the Jets; TreVeyon Henderson was back and Corey Kiner took 11 carries late (sources: nbcsports.com; rotowire.com). That's 6.3 here after two weeks near 20. He still led the backfield with 60% of snaps, and he keeps third downs and pass protection, but the work now splits three ways. We cut 1.5 to 13; at 1,459 he's fairly priced; hold.

    Why not the projection (12.1) 13, above Sleeper's 12.1: he still leads New England's backfield with 60% of snaps.

    What changed Down 1.5 to 13 and from Tier 6 to 7: 6.3 in Week 6 with Henderson back and Kiner taking late carries.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    11.9
    Above repl.
    +0.2
    Wks 15–17
    12.5
    Games
    10
    dogwater →
  22. 22RBJeremiyah LoveARI · @SettytsSell12.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 4.9, likely 0–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–15 (questionable)
    2. Week 8: expected 10.8, likely 5.8–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–19.9
    3. Week 9: expected 12.0, likely 6.5–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 3–22.1
    4. Week 10: expected 12.5, likely 6.8–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–23.1
    5. Week 11: expected 12.6, likely 6.8–17, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–23.2
    6. Week 12: expected 13.6, likely 7.3–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–25.2
    7. Week 13: expected 12.4, likely 6.7–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–22.9
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected
    9. Week 15: expected 13.3, likely 7.2–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.5
    10. Week 16: expected 14.1, likely 8.7–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–23.5
    11. Week 17: expected 14.3, likely 8.9–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–23.9
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He missed Week 6 against the Rams with the ankle after sitting out practice all week; Mike LaFleur said he wasn't improving but that IR hasn't been discussed (source: nbcsports.com). We have Week 7 against Denver as a coin flip. He's been under 10 in three of five games with Tyler Allgeier taking passing downs, worth about 12.5 here when healthy. At 2,311 the market still pays for the Week 3 breakout; sell.

    Why not the projection (13.3) 12.5, under Sleeper's 13.3: three of five games under 10, with Allgeier on passing downs; Week 7 a coin flip.

    What changed Now questionable for Week 7 after missing Week 6 with the ankle; ppg and tier unchanged.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    11.0
    Above repl.
    -0.7
    Wks 15–17
    13.9
    Games
    9.5
    WALLAHI on the Beat →
  23. 23RBWoody MarksHOU · not rostered nowHold12.0new
    1. Week 7: expected 14.7, likely 9.1–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–24.6
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 12.1, likely 6.5–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 3–22.4
    4. Week 10: expected 11.6, likely 6.3–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–21.5
    5. Week 11: expected 12.7, likely 6.8–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–23.5
    6. Week 12: expected 11.4, likely 6.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–21.1
    7. Week 13: expected 11.4, likely 6.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–21.2
    8. Week 14: expected 12.0, likely 6.5–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 3–22.3
    9. Week 15: expected 11.1, likely 6–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.6
    10. Week 16: expected 11.0, likely 5.9–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–20.3
    11. Week 17: expected 12.1, likely 6.5–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 3–22.4
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    12.8 here in the London game with David Montgomery out, and he's at 12.3 a game with every game between 9.1 and 15.8. He's been the lead back and the goal-line back since Montgomery's groin injury (source: thefantasyfootballers.com), and Montgomery has been weak when he plays. Sleeper projects a smaller role once Montgomery returns; we're a bit above at 12, around replacement with the Week 8 bye. At 818 he's cheap for a steady floor; hold.

    Why not the projection (11.1) 12, above Sleeper's 11.1: he's at 12.3 a game here and has led Houston's backfield since Week 5.

    What changed New to the board: Houston's lead back while Montgomery is out, at 12.3 a game.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    10.9
    Above repl.
    -0.8
    Wks 15–17
    11.4
    Games
    10
    somickey →
  24. 24RBSaquon BarkleyPHI · @nikashSell12.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 6.6, likely 0–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–20 (questionable)
    2. Week 8: expected 13.9, likely 7.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–25.8
    3. Week 9: expected 13.3, likely 7.2–18, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.6
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 11.8, likely 6.4–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–21.8
    6. Week 12: expected 13.2, likely 7.1–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.3
    7. Week 13: expected 12.5, likely 6.7–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–23.1
    8. Week 14: expected 13.0, likely 7–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.1
    9. Week 15: expected 11.1, likely 6–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.6
    10. Week 16: expected 11.9, likely 6.4–16, 10th–90th percentile 3–21.9
    11. Week 17: expected 11.4, likely 6.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–21.1
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He missed Week 6 against Carolina with the hamstring, his second straight absence (source: rotowire.com), and the Eagles call it week-to-week, not long-term. Dameon Pierce played 61 of 64 snaps in his place, so Barkley gets the volume back when healthy, but he was at 7.1 a game here in four games before the injury, and Jalen Hurts was out too. We have Week 7 as a coin flip and stay at 12.5, far under Sleeper's 16. At 2,672 he's still the biggest overpay among the backs; sell.

    Why not the projection (16.0) 12.5, far under Sleeper's 16: 7.1 a game here before the hamstring in a stalled offense; Week 7 a coin flip.

    What changed Questionable week moves from 6 to 7 after he missed Week 6.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    10.8
    Above repl.
    -0.9
    Wks 15–17
    11.5
    Games
    9.5
    The Naughty Betas →
  25. 25RBRJ HarveyDEN · @sishaarSell11.5+1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 12.0, likely 5.1–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–24.7
    2. Week 8: expected 10.8, likely 4.6–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–22.2
    3. Week 9: expected 11.6, likely 4.9–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–23.9
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 11.8, likely 5–17, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–24.4
    6. Week 12: expected 11.1, likely 4.7–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–23
    7. Week 13: expected 12.3, likely 5.2–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–25.4
    8. Week 14: expected 11.3, likely 4.8–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–23.2
    9. Week 15: expected 11.7, likely 5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–24.2
    10. Week 16: expected 11.1, likely 4.7–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–23
    11. Week 17: expected 11.2, likely 4.7–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–23
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    16.4 here in Week 6 after 1.35 the week before, which is the whole problem: J.K. Dobbins leads Denver's backfield and Harvey's role swings week to week (source: rotoballer.com). He's at 13.1 a game, but that average leans on Week 4's 10-catch game. We go up one to 11.5, still just under replacement. At 885 he's not worth what a manager would pay in hope; sell for anything.

    Why not the projection (13.5) 11.5, under Sleeper's 13.5: a change-of-pace role behind Dobbins with a weekly range from 1 to 22.

    What changed Up a point to 11.5 after 16.4 in Week 6.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    10.4
    Above repl.
    -1.3
    Wks 15–17
    11.3
    Games
    10
    commish →
  26. 26RBBlake CorumLAR · @nikashBuy11.0new
    1. Week 7: expected 11.8, likely 6.4–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–21.8
    2. Week 8: expected 11.3, likely 6.1–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.9
    3. Week 9: expected 11.0, likely 6–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.4
    4. Week 10: expected 11.2, likely 6–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.6
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 11.4, likely 6.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–21.1
    7. Week 13: expected 10.6, likely 5.7–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–19.7
    8. Week 14: expected 10.4, likely 5.6–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–19.2
    9. Week 15: expected 11.9, likely 6.4–16, 10th–90th percentile 3–22
    10. Week 16: expected 10.1, likely 5.5–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.7
    11. Week 17: expected 10.3, likely 5.6–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–19.1
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Nine carries for 42 yards plus a receiving TD in the loss to Arizona, two touches behind Kyren Williams, the closest split of the season (source: nbcsports.com). That's 15.95 here after 17.9 in Week 5, and his role has grown two weeks running. On his own he's just under replacement, but he's the Rams' handcuff with real standalone work, so we move him up a tier for the upside. At 747 he's nearly free; buy.

    Why not the projection (9.7) 11, above Sleeper's 9.7: 17.9 and 15.95 the last two weeks as his share of the Rams' backfield grows.

    What changed New to the board: two straight games over 15 as his share grows next to Kyren Williams.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    10.0
    Above repl.
    -1.7
    Wks 15–17
    10.8
    Games
    10
    The Naughty Betas →
  27. 27RBBraelon AllenNYJ · @nikashBuy10.0new
    1. Week 7: expected 10.7, likely 5.8–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–19.7
    2. Week 8: expected 10.6, likely 5.7–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–19.6
    3. Week 9: expected 9.3, likely 5–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17.1
    4. Week 10: expected 9.8, likely 5.3–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.1
    5. Week 11: expected 10.0, likely 5.4–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.6
    6. Week 12: expected 10.6, likely 5.7–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–19.5
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 9.7, likely 5.2–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18
    9. Week 15: expected 10.2, likely 5.5–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.8
    10. Week 16: expected 10.0, likely 5.4–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.4
    11. Week 17: expected 8.9, likely 4.8–12, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    16.65 here in the loss to New England after 21 in Week 5, both as the Jets' lead back with Breece Hall out (source: rotowire.com). Sleeper's projection assumes Hall is back; we have Hall out Week 7 and a coin flip in Week 8, so Allen's next two weeks are worth mid-teens and the rest of the season much less. Our ppg is a blend at 10, under replacement, but we move him up a tier for the short-term starts. At 515 he's free; buy.

    Why not the projection (8.6) 10, above Sleeper's 8.6: Sleeper assumes Hall returns now; we have Hall out Week 7 and questionable Week 8.

    What changed New to the board: the Jets' lead back with Hall out, 21 and 16.65 the last two weeks.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.1
    Above repl.
    -2.6
    Wks 15–17
    9.7
    Games
    10
    The Naughty Betas →
  28. 28RBOmarion HamptonLAC · @sishaarSell9.5–
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 9.1, likely 4.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.8
    3. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 5.1–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17.3
    4. Week 10: expected 9.2, likely 5–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17
    5. Week 11: expected 9.6, likely 5.2–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–17.8
    6. Week 12: expected 9.9, likely 5.3–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.3
    7. Week 13: expected 9.1, likely 4.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.8
    8. Week 14: expected 10.3, likely 5.6–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–19
    9. Week 15: expected 9.2, likely 5–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17
    10. Week 16: expected 10.2, likely 5.5–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.9
    11. Week 17: expected 9.3, likely 5–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17.1
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    9.2 here in Week 6, another quiet game in a three-way split with Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell (source: rotoballer.com). He's at 11.5 a game, with only Week 2 over 15.25, and he's been kept off third downs and the two-minute drill. We stay at 9.5, well below replacement, with the Week 7 bye next. At 1,472 the market still pays for his draft slot; sell.

    Why not the projection (11.8) 9.5, under Sleeper's 11.8: a shrinking role in a three-way split.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    8.7
    Above repl.
    -3.0
    Wks 15–17
    9.6
    Games
    10
    commish →
  29. 29RBAlvin KamaraNO · @arireddySell9.0+0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 11.3, likely 6.1–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.9
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 8.2, likely 4.5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.3
    4. Week 10: expected 9.0, likely 4.9–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.7
    5. Week 11: expected 9.2, likely 5–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17
    6. Week 12: expected 9.3, likely 5–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17.2
    7. Week 13: expected 8.7, likely 4.7–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.1
    8. Week 14: expected 9.0, likely 4.8–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.6
    9. Week 15: expected 8.1, likely 4.4–11, 10th–90th percentile 2–15.1
    10. Week 16: expected 8.9, likely 4.8–12, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.4
    11. Week 17: expected 8.2, likely 4.4–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.2
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Seven carries for 34 yards and a receiving TD in the win over the Giants, playing through a back injury, while Kendre Miller got 20 carries and led the backfield (sources: nbcsports.com; nbcsports.com). That's 16.6 here, but on nine touches; take away the TD and it's another single-digit game. Travis Etienne can return from IR in Week 9, which makes Kamara the third option. We go up half a point to 9; at 559 there's nothing to get, so sell or cut.

    Why not the projection (7.4) 9, above Sleeper's 7.4: he's at 11.9 a game here, but a 9-touch role behind Kendre Miller.

    What changed Up half a point to 9 after a TD-driven 16.6 in Week 6.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    8.2
    Above repl.
    -3.5
    Wks 15–17
    8.4
    Games
    10
    dogwater →
  30. 30RBKeaton MitchellLAC · @arireddyHold9.0-1.0
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 8.6, likely 4.7–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–15.9
    3. Week 9: expected 8.9, likely 4.8–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.5
    4. Week 10: expected 8.8, likely 4.7–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.2
    5. Week 11: expected 9.1, likely 4.9–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.8
    6. Week 12: expected 9.1, likely 4.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.9
    7. Week 13: expected 8.8, likely 4.7–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.2
    8. Week 14: expected 9.6, likely 5.2–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–17.7
    9. Week 15: expected 8.7, likely 4.7–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16
    10. Week 16: expected 9.6, likely 5.2–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–17.7
    11. Week 17: expected 8.7, likely 4.7–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.2
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    5.05 here in Week 6, his lowest since Week 1, in the same three-way Chargers committee with Hampton and Kimani Vidal. He's at 10 a game here with the most explosive role of the three, but no back is pulling away. We cut a point to 9, with the Week 7 bye next. At 145 he costs nothing; hold as a lottery ticket if the Chargers pick one back.

    What changed Down a point to 9 after 5.05 in Week 6.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    8.2
    Above repl.
    -3.5
    Wks 15–17
    9.0
    Games
    10
    dogwater →
  31. 31RBDavid MontgomeryHOU · @nikashSell9.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 3.4, likely 0–6, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.4 (questionable)
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 9.5, likely 5.1–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–17.5
    4. Week 10: expected 9.1, likely 4.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.9
    5. Week 11: expected 9.9, likely 5.4–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.3
    6. Week 12: expected 9.0, likely 4.9–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.6
    7. Week 13: expected 9.0, likely 4.8–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.6
    8. Week 14: expected 9.5, likely 5.1–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–17.5
    9. Week 15: expected 8.8, likely 4.7–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.3
    10. Week 16: expected 8.7, likely 4.7–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.1
    11. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 5.1–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–17.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He missed Week 6 in London with the groin, is week-to-week, and was aiming for Week 7 against the Giants (source: thefantasyfootballers.com); with Houston's bye in Week 8, the Texans may just hold him. We keep Week 7 as a coin flip. Woody Marks has the lead role and the goal-line work, and Montgomery scored 8.9 or less in every game since the opener. We stay at 9; at 896 there's little to get, so sell or cut.

    Why not the projection (14.3) 9, far under Sleeper's 14.3: 8.9 or less in every game since Week 1, and Woody Marks has the lead role.

    What changed Week 6 absence is past; Week 7 stays a coin flip.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.9
    Above repl.
    -3.8
    Wks 15–17
    9.0
    Games
    9.5
    The Naughty Betas →
  32. 32RBTyler AllgeierARI · @arireddyHold8.5new
    1. Week 7: expected 9.0, likely 4.9–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.7
    2. Week 8: expected 9.3, likely 5–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17.2
    3. Week 9: expected 7.8, likely 4.2–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–14.4
    4. Week 10: expected 7.9, likely 4.3–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–14.7
    5. Week 11: expected 8.0, likely 4.3–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–14.8
    6. Week 12: expected 9.0, likely 4.9–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.6
    7. Week 13: expected 7.9, likely 4.3–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–14.7
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected
    9. Week 15: expected 8.5, likely 4.6–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.7
    10. Week 16: expected 8.8, likely 4.8–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.3
    11. Week 17: expected 9.0, likely 4.8–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.6
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    9.15 here in Week 6, sharing the work with Bam Knight while Jeremiyah Love sat with the ankle (source: nbcsports.com). He's at 8.3 a game with the passing-down role, and he got only 9.15 with Love out, so the handcuff upside is small. We're at 8.5, below replacement. At 466 he costs nothing; hold only while Love's ankle is a question.

    What changed New to the board: Arizona's passing-down back, rostered while Love's ankle is a question.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.7
    Above repl.
    -4.0
    Wks 15–17
    8.8
    Games
    10
    dogwater →
  33. 33RBTreVeyon HendersonNE · @vtandaleSell8.0-1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 6.4, likely 3.4–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–11.8
    2. Week 8: expected 6.9, likely 3.7–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–12.8
    3. Week 9: expected 8.6, likely 4.6–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–15.9
    4. Week 10: expected 9.2, likely 4.9–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.9
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 8.5, likely 4.6–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.7
    7. Week 13: expected 8.3, likely 4.5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.4
    8. Week 14: expected 7.6, likely 4.1–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–14.1
    9. Week 15: expected 7.9, likely 4.3–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–14.7
    10. Week 16: expected 8.3, likely 4.5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.3
    11. Week 17: expected 8.3, likely 4.5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.3
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    He played through the high ankle sprain in Week 6 but managed only 2.25 here, with 16 snaps (24%), seven carries and a fumble, while Stevenson and Corey Kiner took the rest (source: rotowire.com). He's at 7.3 a game this season and is third in line until the ankle heals. We drop the Week 7 questionable tag since he's playing, and cut to 8. At 812 the market still pays for the rookie tag; sell.

    Why not the projection (10.9) 8, under Sleeper's 10.9: 7.3 a game here, and a 24% snap share in Week 6 on a sprained ankle.

    What changed Down a point to 8 and no longer questionable for Week 7: he played in Week 6 but in a reduced role.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.3
    Above repl.
    -4.4
    Wks 15–17
    8.2
    Games
    10
    96 bulls →
  34. 34RBCam SkatteboNYG · @sishaarSell7.0-5.5
    1. Week 7: expected 6.4, likely 3.5–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–11.8
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 6.5, likely 3.5–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.1
    4. Week 10: expected 7.2, likely 3.9–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–13.3
    5. Week 11: expected 6.5, likely 3.5–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.1
    6. Week 12: expected 7.6, likely 4.1–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–14.1
    7. Week 13: expected 6.7, likely 3.6–9, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–12.3
    8. Week 14: expected 6.3, likely 3.4–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–11.7
    9. Week 15: expected 7.1, likely 3.8–9.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–13
    10. Week 16: expected 8.0, likely 4.3–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–14.8
    11. Week 17: expected 7.6, likely 4.1–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–14.1
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Active but held without a touch on six snaps in the Week 6 loss, behind Najee Harris, after his fourth fumble of the season; John Harbaugh denied a benching, but Skattebo said he got punished (sources: nbcsports.com; cbssports.com). That's a zero here, and Sleeper projects almost nothing from here. We think he earns some work back, so we're at 7, not 3.9, but he's well below replacement. At 1,162 the market hasn't caught up; sell for anything.

    Why not the projection (3.9) 7, above Sleeper's 3.9: we expect him to earn back some of the work, but not the lead role.

    What changed Down from 12.5 to 7 and from Tier 7 to 8: zero touches in Week 6 after fumble problems, with Najee Harris taking over.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    6.4
    Above repl.
    -5.3
    Wks 15–17
    7.6
    Games
    10
    commish →
  35. 35RBEmanuel WilsonSEA · @vtandaleSell3.9-3.1
    1. Week 7: expected 10.1, likely 5.4–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.6
    2. Week 8: expected 9.8, likely 5.3–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.2
    3. Week 9: expected 4.1, likely 2.2–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 1–7.6
    4. Week 10: expected 2.2, likely 1.2–3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.1
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 2.0, likely 1.1–2.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.6
    7. Week 13: expected 2.3, likely 1.2–3.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.2
    8. Week 14: expected 2.3, likely 1.2–3.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.3
    9. Week 15: expected 1.9, likely 1–2.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.5
    10. Week 16: expected 2.0, likely 1.1–2.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.7
    11. Week 17: expected 2.4, likely 1.3–3.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Fourteen carries for 52 scoreless yards in Week 6, with his snap share down to 33% as Velus Jones and Holani took work (source: rotowire.com). That's 8.3 here, and Mike Macdonald says there's a good chance Zach Charbonnet makes his debut in Week 7 against Kansas City (source: nbcsports.com). That ends his run as Seattle's lead back; we drop to Sleeper's 3.9. Sell, or cut him for a free agent.

    What changed Down from 7 to Sleeper's 3.9: Charbonnet is set to return in Week 7 and Wilson's snap share already fell to 33%; lean moves from hold to sell.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    3.6
    Above repl.
    -8.1
    Wks 15–17
    2.1
    Games
    10
    96 bulls →
  36. 36RBDameon PiercePHI · @SettytsHold3.5new
    1. Week 7: expected 11.1, likely 6–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.5
    2. Week 8: expected 7.8, likely 4.2–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–14.5
    3. Week 9: expected 2.1, likely 1.1–2.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.9
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 1.9, likely 1–2.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.6
    6. Week 12: expected 2.2, likely 1.2–2.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–4
    7. Week 13: expected 2.1, likely 1.1–2.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.9
    8. Week 14: expected 2.1, likely 1.1–2.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.8
    9. Week 15: expected 1.8, likely 1–2.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–3.3
    10. Week 16: expected 2.0, likely 1.1–2.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.7
    11. Week 17: expected 1.9, likely 1–2.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.4
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Twelve carries for 35 yards and a TD plus four catches in the loss to Carolina, playing 61 of 64 snaps with Barkley, Bigsby and Shipley all out (source: rotowire.com). That's 17.65 here, but under 3 yards a carry, and the role ends when Barkley's hamstring heals. Sleeper projects him only for the next two weeks; we nudge that up to 3.5 for the chance Barkley's absence drags on. He's a Barkley handcuff on the same roster; at 294, hold.

    Why not the projection (2.6) 3.5, above Sleeper's 2.6: Barkley's return date is unclear, so Pierce's Week 7-8 lead role may last.

    What changed New to the board: Philadelphia's fill-in lead back while Barkley is out.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    3.2
    Above repl.
    -8.5
    Wks 15–17
    1.9
    Games
    10
    WALLAHI on the Beat →

Rostered since this board was written (not ranked yet): Aaron Jones (@sishaar).

The analyst's notes

The biggest change this week isn't a player: it's replacement level. nikash dropped T.J. Hockenson, and at 18.5 a game the best free-agent tight end now beats most of the league's starters. Only Brock Bowers (29.5), Trey McBride (29), Isaiah Likely (24.5), Sam LaPorta and George Kittle clear him by more than a point a week. Tyler Warren, Juwan Johnson, Harold Fannin, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts and Colston Loveland are all at or below replacement, and most of them fall two or three tiers without their ppg moving much. Receivers go the other way: with Jalen Coker rostered by Predjs, the best free-agent WR is Malik Washington at 13.7, two points lower, so most starting receivers move up a tier.

Injuries did the rest. Davante Adams got hurt on the final drive against Arizona and McVay says 6–10 weeks, so he's out Weeks 7–12 and questionable for 13. Jalen Hurts missed Week 6 with a blood clot in his calf, is on IR with no timetable, and drops from Tier 4 to 8; Tanner McKee (16.3 in his first start) joins the board at 15.5. Breece Hall is out again in Week 7 and questionable in Week 8. Josh Jacobs is the good news: the NFL took him off the exempt list and he's eligible from Week 7, so he goes from Tier 8 to 6.

In our scoring, three quarterback slots still make every starting QB worth something. Jared Goff and Bryce Young are Tier 2 at about 25 a game with no bye left, Malik Willis is a starter the market prices like a free agent, and even J.J. McCarthy gets 6 a game for a package role that scored 21.45 in Week 6.

Big moves

Risers.

  • Malik Nabers (17.5 → 21, Tier 7 → 5): 12 catches, 165 yards and two TDs (31.85), his third straight 25-point game. The Giants' QB change from Jameis Winston to McCarthy is the risk.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Tier 2 → 1, RB1 at 31): nothing changed but the calendar. The bye is behind him.
  • Drake Maye (22.5 → 24, Tier 3 → 2): a third straight game over 27.
  • Trevor Lawrence (23 → 24.5): 34.15 in Week 6, the best QB score in our league. A buy at 4,992.
  • Chuba Hubbard (20.5 → 21.5, RB7 → RB4): no bye left and Jonathon Brooks out into November.
  • Puka Nacua (25.5 → 26, Tier 4 → 3): Adams' targets go to him.
  • Justin Jefferson (Tier 7 → 5) and Ja'Marr Chase (Tier 5 → 4): same ppg, lower WR replacement.
  • Josh Jacobs (13.5 → 14.5, Tier 8 → 6): back from the exempt list.
  • New: Jalen Coker (16, Tier 6, buy), Tanner McKee (15.5, Tier 6), Kyle Pitts (16 after 31.0, still Tier 8 against the new TE bar), Braelon Allen and Blake Corum (Tier 7, buys as handcuffs).

Fallers.

  • Jalen Hurts (18.5 → 0, Tier 4 → 8): blood clot, IR, no timetable.
  • Davante Adams (out Weeks 7–12): still 14.5 a game when he plays, which makes him a playoff stash.
  • Cam Skattebo (12.5 → 7, Tier 7 → 8): six snaps and no touches after his fourth fumble; Najee Harris has the job.
  • Bijan Robinson (27.5 → 26.5, Tier 2 → 3) and Derrick Henry (24 → 23, Tier 3 → 4): 8.85 and 6.15 in Week 6, and Henry lost a fumble.
  • Tyler Warren (Tier 4 → 7): the groin injury kept him out of Week 6, and Week 7 is questionable.
  • Juwan Johnson (19.5 → 17.5, Tier 5 → 8), Harold Fannin (16.5 → 14.5) and Mark Andrews (16 → 13.5): low ppg and the higher TE bar.
  • Jameis Winston (17 → 14): two interceptions and benched for McCarthy. Dak Prescott (23.5 → 22, Tier 2 → 3): four interceptions in two weeks.

Where we disagree with the market

Market too high.

  • Lamar Jackson (7,610, sell): FantasyCalc's second-priciest QB has missed two games with the ankle and is a coin flip for Week 7. At 26 a game he's worth about what Goff and Young are here, and they cost half as much.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (8,456) and Justin Jefferson (5,642), sell: priced as top receivers, but Chase is at 17.1 a game with two games under 7, and Jefferson plays in a run-first offense at 18.
  • George Kittle (3,302), Tyler Warren (2,448), Tucker Kraft (1,533) and Colston Loveland (1,376), sell: all priced as starting tight ends, and only Kittle beats the 18.5 free-agent bar here, by about a point a week.
  • Saquon Barkley (2,672) and Christian McCaffrey (7,328): Barkley averaged 7.1 here before the hamstring. McCaffrey's 31.95 on Monday was his best game, and at 22.7 a game he's priced above James Cook and Jonathan Taylor for about the same output. Hold McCaffrey, sell Barkley.

Market too low.

  • Jared Goff (4,163) and Bryce Young (3,223), buy: Tier 2 quarterbacks at about 25 a game with no bye left, priced like QB2s.
  • Chuba Hubbard (3,926), Bhayshul Tuten (2,743) and Ollie Gordon (947), buy: lead backs, and our carry and first-down scoring pays for volume.
  • Jalen Coker (1,959) and Matthew Golden (2,761), buy: Tier 6 starters priced like depth. Coker led Carolina with 13 targets in his return.
  • Malik Willis (91), buy: Miami's starter, about 6.6 points a week above a free agent in a league with three QB slots.

How it works

Every rostered player gets a week-by-week projection in our league's scoring for the rest of the season (TE premium and first-down bonuses, carries, return yards, the lot). The starting point is Sleeper's weekly projections run through our scoring. The analyst then sets how good the player is when he plays (ppg) and which weeks he'll miss, and has to say why whenever the call differs from the projection.

Rank is by points above replacement: what the player adds per week across the rest of the season, byes and missed weeks included, minus what the best free agent at that position would give you. With three QB-eligible slots and almost no free-agent QBs, that is why quarterbacks sit so high. Anything that moved since last week comes with a reason. Trades are judged by rebuilding both teams' best lineups every remaining week.

Each week's range comes from history: every player-week of the previous season scored in our settings, comparing what players actually scored with what they were projected to score, by position and projection level. The analyst's call sets the middle, and a questionable week is a coin flip between zero and a normal game.

Market prices quoted in takes are FantasyCalc redraft trade values (10 teams, 2 QB, PPR). Projections: Sleeper weekly projections, Weeks 7–17, scored with our league settings (npm run score); fetched 2026-10-20.