Week 6 Player Board: Hockenson's Release Lifts the TE Bar to 18.5, Malik Nabers Jumps to 21

Replacement (best free agent, pts/week): QB 8.4 · RB 11.7 · WR 13.7 · TE 18.5 · K 10.3

1. 1RB1Jahmyr GibbsDET · @skollurHold31.0–

   1. Week 7: expected 30.5, likely 20.4–37.5, 10th–90th percentile 14–51.87
   2. Week 8: expected 28.4, likely 19–35, 10th–90th percentile 13.1–48.38
   3. Week 9: expected 32.7, likely 21.9–40.2, 10th–90th percentile 15–55.59
   4. Week 10: expected 30.9, likely 20.7–38, 10th–90th percentile 14.2–52.510
   5. Week 11: expected 30.0, likely 20.1–37, 10th–90th percentile 13.8–51.111
   6. Week 12: expected 33.1, likely 22.2–40.8, 10th–90th percentile 15.2–56.312
   7. Week 13: expected 30.0, likely 20.1–36.9, 10th–90th percentile 13.8–5113
   8. Week 14: expected 31.8, likely 21.3–39.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.6–5414
   9. Week 15: expected 28.2, likely 18.9–34.6, 10th–90th percentile 13–47.915
   10. Week 16: expected 32.7, likely 21.9–40.2, 10th–90th percentile 15.1–55.616
   11. Week 17: expected 32.9, likely 22–40.4, 10th–90th percentile 15.1–55.917

   Bye in Week 6, so his 35.2 a game here through five weeks, the best of any back, stands. He has the league's heaviest touch load and catches enough passes that no game script sinks him; the bye is behind him, so he's projected every remaining week. We stay at 31, a point above Sleeper; at 10,720 he's priced as the top back and nobody sells him; hold.

   Why not the projection (30.1) 31 a game, above Sleeper's 30.1: 35.2 a game here through five weeks on the league's heaviest touch load.

   What changed Up from Tier 2 to 1 with the same 31 ppg: his Week 6 bye is behind him, so he's projected all 11 remaining weeks, about 19 points a week above replacement.

   Tier

   1

   Per week

   31.0

   Above repl.

   +19.3

   Wks 15–17

   31.3

   Games

   11

   JSN’s backpack →
2. 2QB1Josh AllenBUF · @SettytsHold30.0-0.5

   1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
   2. Week 8: expected 29.3, likely 20.5–37.9, 10th–90th percentile 12.9–45.28
   3. Week 9: expected 26.8, likely 18.8–34.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.8–41.39
   4. Week 10: expected 30.4, likely 21.3–39.2, 10th–90th percentile 13.4–46.810
   5. Week 11: expected 33.4, likely 23.4–43.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.7–51.511
   6. Week 12: expected 28.3, likely 19.8–36.4, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–43.512
   7. Week 13: expected 29.0, likely 20.3–37.4, 10th–90th percentile 12.8–44.613
   8. Week 14: expected 30.4, likely 21.3–39.2, 10th–90th percentile 13.4–46.814
   9. Week 15: expected 31.3, likely 21.9–40.3, 10th–90th percentile 13.8–48.115
   10. Week 16: expected 28.1, likely 19.7–36.2, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–43.216
   11. Week 17: expected 33.4, likely 23.4–43, 10th–90th percentile 14.7–51.417

   Week 6 was 23 of 33 for 255 yards and two TDs with five carries for a yard (23.9 in our scoring), his third quiet game, but he's still 32.1 ppg and the only QB here more than 18 a week above replacement. The goal-line rushing went missing in Week 6; that's the swing between his 20s and his 40s. Week 7 bye, then a full run to Week 17 with the best Weeks 15-17 projection at the position. FantasyCalc's 10,463 is the price of the clear QB1; Settyts holds.

   Why not the projection (29.2) 30 per game, above Sleeper's 29.2: 32.1 ppg through six weeks with the rushing role intact.

   What changed ppg trimmed from 30.5 to 30 after a second sub-24 game in four weeks without rushing production; still QB1.

   Tier

   1

   Per week

   27.3

   Above repl.

   +18.9

   Wks 15–17

   30.9

   Games

   10

   WALLAHI on the Beat →
3. 3QB2Jared GoffDET · @ShukyBuy25.0–

   1. Week 7: expected 25.2, likely 17.6–32.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–38.87
   2. Week 8: expected 22.0, likely 15.4–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–33.98
   3. Week 9: expected 29.2, likely 20.5–37.7, 10th–90th percentile 12.9–459
   4. Week 10: expected 23.9, likely 16.8–30.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–36.910
   5. Week 11: expected 25.7, likely 18–33.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–39.611
   6. Week 12: expected 26.0, likely 18.2–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–4012
   7. Week 13: expected 22.9, likely 16.1–29.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.313
   8. Week 14: expected 26.2, likely 18.3–33.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–40.314
   9. Week 15: expected 22.1, likely 15.4–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–3415
   10. Week 16: expected 26.0, likely 18.2–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–4016
   11. Week 17: expected 26.0, likely 18.2–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–4017

   Week 6 was Detroit's bye; he's 27.4 ppg with no picks through five games, and our passing first downs pay for the volume. The bye is behind him, so all 11 weeks count. I keep 25, well above Sleeper's 22.5. FantasyCalc's 4,163 is less than Lamar, Burrow and Maye, and he's worth more than all three here; buy.

   Why not the projection (22.5) 25 per game, above Sleeper's 22.5: 27.4 ppg and an offense that keeps throwing.

   What changed Bye week passed, so his per-week value rises and his position rank likely moves up.

   Tier

   2

   Per week

   25.0

   Above repl.

   +16.6

   Wks 15–17

   24.7

   Games

   11

   To infinity and bijan →
4. 4QB3Brock PurdySF · @sishaarHold27.0–

   1. Week 7: expected 24.0, likely 16.8–31, 10th–90th percentile 10.6–377
   2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
   3. Week 9: expected 30.0, likely 21–38.8, 10th–90th percentile 13.2–46.39
   4. Week 10: expected 30.6, likely 21.4–39.4, 10th–90th percentile 13.4–47.110
   5. Week 11: expected 25.1, likely 17.5–32.3, 10th–90th percentile 11–38.611
   6. Week 12: expected 25.7, likely 18–33.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–39.612
   7. Week 13: expected 28.9, likely 20.2–37.2, 10th–90th percentile 12.7–44.413
   8. Week 14: expected 25.4, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.114
   9. Week 15: expected 27.7, likely 19.4–35.7, 10th–90th percentile 12.2–42.715
   10. Week 16: expected 26.3, likely 18.4–33.9, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–40.416
   11. Week 17: expected 26.5, likely 18.6–34.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.7–40.817

   Monday night was 21 of 29 for 264 yards and a TD plus five carries for 28 yards (23.35 in our scoring) against Washington; the cached stat feed caught only part of that game, so ignore the 12.3 some tools show. He's 28.8 ppg, second only to Allen, though his last two games (20.7, 23.35) are his quietest. Week 8 bye. FantasyCalc's 6,652 is fair for the QB2 in our scoring; sishaar holds.

   Why not the projection (26.3) 27 per game, above Sleeper's 26.3: 28.8 ppg through six games.

   What changed Position rank may move as Lamar and Burrow shift around him; 27 per game is unchanged after a 23.35 on Monday night.

   Tier

   2

   Per week

   24.6

   Above repl.

   +16.2

   Wks 15–17

   26.8

   Games

   10

   commish →
5. 5QB4Bryce YoungCAR · @ShukyBuy24.5+0.5

   1. Week 7: expected 24.8, likely 17.3–31.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–38.17
   2. Week 8: expected 25.4, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.18
   3. Week 9: expected 23.1, likely 16.1–29.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.59
   4. Week 10: expected 25.4, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.110
   5. Week 11: expected 24.7, likely 17.3–31.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–3811
   6. Week 12: expected 25.4, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.212
   7. Week 13: expected 22.0, likely 15.4–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–33.913
   8. Week 14: expected 25.5, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.214
   9. Week 15: expected 25.5, likely 17.9–32.9, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.315
   10. Week 16: expected 25.0, likely 17.5–32.3, 10th–90th percentile 11–38.516
   11. Week 17: expected 22.7, likely 15.9–29.3, 10th–90th percentile 10–34.917

   Week 6 was 20 of 39 for 281 yards and two TDs at Philadelphia (25 in our scoring), so he's 28.4 ppg with no bye left. I raise him from 24 to 24.5, still well under his pace and over Sleeper's 22.1, and with no bye he's one of the highest per-week values at the position. FantasyCalc's 3,223 prices him as a mid QB2; he's the best QB buy on the board, and Shuky should keep him.

   Why not the projection (22.1) 24.5 per game, above Sleeper's 22.1: 28.4 ppg and the passing volume is real.

   What changed ppg up from 24 to 24.5 after another 25-point game.

   Tier

   2

   Per week

   24.5

   Above repl.

   +16.1

   Wks 15–17

   24.4

   Games

   11

   To infinity and bijan →
6. 6RB2Kenneth WalkerKC · @ShukyHold27.0+1.0

   1. Week 7: expected 23.9, likely 16–29.4, 10th–90th percentile 11–40.77
   2. Week 8: expected 26.8, likely 17.9–32.9, 10th–90th percentile 12.3–45.58
   3. Week 9: expected 27.4, likely 18.3–33.7, 10th–90th percentile 12.6–46.59
   4. Week 10: expected 26.7, likely 17.9–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 12.3–45.310
   5. Week 11: expected 28.4, likely 19–34.9, 10th–90th percentile 13.1–48.311
   6. Week 12: expected 27.0, likely 18.1–33.2, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–45.912
   7. Week 13: expected 25.8, likely 17.3–31.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–43.913
   8. Week 14: expected 29.6, likely 19.8–36.4, 10th–90th percentile 13.6–50.414
   9. Week 15: expected 27.6, likely 18.5–33.9, 10th–90th percentile 12.7–46.915
   10. Week 16: expected 26.2, likely 17.5–32.2, 10th–90th percentile 12–44.516
   11. Week 17: expected 27.7, likely 18.6–34.1, 10th–90th percentile 12.8–47.217

   31.95 here in Week 6, his fifth game over 24 in five tries, and he's at 32.5 a game. He's played every week with the lead role and Emmett Johnson as a change-of-pace back, and with no bye left he's projected all 11 remaining weeks, which makes him the clear RB2 behind Gibbs. TD rate will cool, so we go up one to 27, not his pace. At 8,814 he's priced below Bijan for more in our scoring; hold, and don't sell for anything less than a top-three back.

   Why not the projection (25.1) 27, above Sleeper's 25.1: 32.5 a game here through five games with a steady lead role; we shade it down for TD regression.

   What changed Up a point from 26 after another 30-point game (31.95); he stays the clear RB2 behind Gibbs.

   Tier

   2

   Per week

   27.0

   Above repl.

   +15.3

   Wks 15–17

   27.2

   Games

   11

   To infinity and bijan →
7. 7QB5Joe BurrowCIN · @somickeySell23.5–

   1. Week 7: expected 24.4, likely 17.1–31.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.57
   2. Week 8: expected 24.5, likely 17.2–31.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–37.78
   3. Week 9: expected 21.3, likely 14.9–27.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–32.89
   4. Week 10: expected 23.6, likely 16.5–30.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–36.310
   5. Week 11: expected 27.8, likely 19.5–35.9, 10th–90th percentile 12.3–42.911
   6. Week 12: expected 23.7, likely 16.6–30.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–36.612
   7. Week 13: expected 22.4, likely 15.7–28.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–34.513
   8. Week 14: expected 21.7, likely 15.2–28.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.514
   9. Week 15: expected 21.9, likely 15.3–28.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.715
   10. Week 16: expected 24.1, likely 16.9–31.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.6–37.216
   11. Week 17: expected 23.1, likely 16.2–29.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–35.717

   Week 6 was Cincinnati's bye; he's 25 ppg with three straight 26+ games (26.5, 29.15, 31.3) since Ja'Marr Chase got healthy. With the bye behind him, all 11 weeks count, so he stays tier 2 at 23.5, a point over Sleeper's 22.8. FantasyCalc's 6,584 is the third-highest QB price, more than Goff (4,163) or Young (3,223), who score more here; somickey should sell, but only for a QB back, since Willis, McKee and an injured Mayfield are behind him.

   Why not the projection (22.8) 23.5 per game, above Sleeper's 22.8: 25 ppg with Chase back.

   What changed Bye week passed, so he now has all 11 weeks projected; position rank likely rises.

   Tier

   2

   Per week

   23.5

   Above repl.

   +15.1

   Wks 15–17

   23.0

   Games

   11

   somickey →
8. 8QB6Patrick MahomesKC · @sishaarHold23.5-0.5

   1. Week 7: expected 19.5, likely 11.7–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–337
   2. Week 8: expected 22.2, likely 15.6–28.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–34.28
   3. Week 9: expected 24.8, likely 17.4–32, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–38.29
   4. Week 10: expected 22.2, likely 15.5–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–34.110
   5. Week 11: expected 28.6, likely 20–36.8, 10th–90th percentile 12.6–4411
   6. Week 12: expected 24.6, likely 17.2–31.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–37.812
   7. Week 13: expected 21.5, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.213
   8. Week 14: expected 24.5, likely 17.2–31.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–37.714
   9. Week 15: expected 23.2, likely 16.2–29.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–35.715
   10. Week 16: expected 23.0, likely 16.1–29.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.416
   11. Week 17: expected 24.0, likely 16.8–30.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–36.917

   Week 6 was 23 of 30 for 272 yards, no TDs and a pick with five carries for 16 yards (15.25 in our scoring), his worst game of the season. He's still 24.6 ppg and has no bye left, so all 11 weeks count, which keeps him tier 2 on per-week value. I trim him from 24 to 23.5, near Sleeper's 23.2. FantasyCalc's 5,083 is fair; sishaar holds.

   What changed ppg trimmed from 24 to 23.5 after a TD-less Week 6; position rank likely slips behind Goff, Young and Lawrence.

   Tier

   2

   Per week

   23.5

   Above repl.

   +15.1

   Wks 15–17

   23.4

   Games

   11

   commish →
9. 9QB7Lamar JacksonBAL · @nikashSell26.0–

   1. Week 7: expected 13.3, likely 0–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–36.4 (questionable)7
   2. Week 8: expected 26.6, likely 18.6–34.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.7–40.98
   3. Week 9: expected 24.7, likely 17.3–31.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–389
   4. Week 10: expected 26.1, likely 18.3–33.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–40.310
   5. Week 11: expected 25.7, likely 18–33.1, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–39.511
   6. Week 12: expected 26.1, likely 18.3–33.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–40.212
   7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
   8. Week 14: expected 26.2, likely 18.4–33.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–40.414
   9. Week 15: expected 26.0, likely 18.2–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–4015
   10. Week 16: expected 25.4, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.116
   11. Week 17: expected 27.0, likely 18.9–34.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–41.517

   Missed Weeks 5 and 6 with the ankle while Tyler Huntley started, and he's day-to-day for Week 7 (source: thebanner.com). I make Week 7 a coin flip and keep 26 per game, under Sleeper's 27.4, because an ankle that has cost two games takes away some of the running that drives his value in our scoring. He was 25.4 ppg in four games before it. FantasyCalc's 7,610 makes him the second-priciest QB, ahead of Purdy, Burrow and Goff, who are worth as much or more here; nikash should listen to offers.

   Why not the projection (27.4) 26 per game, under Sleeper's 27.4: a sore ankle limits the rushing, and he was 25.4 ppg before it.

   What changed Week 6 coin flip passed (he missed it); Week 7 is now the coin flip, and the lean moves to sell because the market (7,610) prices him above healthier QBs.

   Tier

   2

   Per week

   22.5

   Above repl.

   +14.1

   Wks 15–17

   26.1

   Games

   9.5

   The Naughty Betas →
10. 10QB8Trevor LawrenceJAX · @vtandaleBuy24.5+1.5

    1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    2. Week 8: expected 24.1, likely 16.9–31.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.6–37.18
    3. Week 9: expected 23.1, likely 16.1–29.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.59
    4. Week 10: expected 24.3, likely 17–31.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.510
    5. Week 11: expected 24.4, likely 17.1–31.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.611
    6. Week 12: expected 24.3, likely 17–31.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.512
    7. Week 13: expected 24.4, likely 17.1–31.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.613
    8. Week 14: expected 23.4, likely 16.4–30.2, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–3614
    9. Week 15: expected 23.6, likely 16.5–30.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–36.415
    10. Week 16: expected 25.9, likely 18.2–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–39.916
    11. Week 17: expected 27.0, likely 18.9–34.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–41.517

    Week 6 was 24 of 41 for 306 yards, four TDs and a pick (34.15 in our scoring), his best game of the season and his third 25+ game in four weeks. Jacksonville is winning and still throwing, so I raise him from 23 to 24.5, still under Sleeper's 26.6. Week 7 bye, then 28.2 and 29.3 projected in Weeks 16-17, the best playoff finish of anyone outside Allen. FantasyCalc's 4,992 is below Burrow and Lamar for a similar playoff QB; buy.

    Why not the projection (26.6) 24.5 per game, under Sleeper's 26.6: 23.8 ppg so far, with a 9.35 in the mix, so I don't go all the way to the projection.

    What changed ppg up from 23 to 24.5 after a 34.15 in Week 6; lean moves to buy at 4,992.

    Tier

    2

    Per week

    22.2

    Above repl.

    +13.8

    Wks 15–17

    25.5

    Games

    10

    96 bulls →
11. 11QB9Drake MayeNE · @sishaarHold24.0+1.5

    1. Week 7: expected 24.5, likely 15.3–33.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–417
    2. Week 8: expected 27.0, likely 16.9–36.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–45.38
    3. Week 9: expected 24.2, likely 15.1–32.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–40.59
    4. Week 10: expected 27.4, likely 17.1–37.3, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–45.910
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 23.5, likely 14.7–32.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–39.412
    7. Week 13: expected 24.1, likely 15.1–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–40.413
    8. Week 14: expected 21.0, likely 13.1–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–35.114
    9. Week 15: expected 22.1, likely 13.8–30.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–3715
    10. Week 16: expected 24.3, likely 15.2–33.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–40.716
    11. Week 17: expected 21.9, likely 13.7–29.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–36.717

    Week 6 was 18 of 32 for 235 yards and three TDs plus four carries for 24 yards (30.35 in our scoring), his third straight 27+ game after a 3.35 in Week 3. The turnovers have stopped and the rushing is back, so I raise him from 22.5 to 24, still under Sleeper's 25. The range stays wide. Week 11 bye. FantasyCalc's 6,235 is now close to fair for a tier-2 QB, so the sell becomes a hold; sishaar has Purdy and Mahomes and can afford to keep him.

    Why not the projection (25.0) 24 per game, under Sleeper's 25: three straight big games, but Weeks 1-3 averaged 10.1.

    What changed Tier 3 to 2 and ppg 22.5 to 24 after a third straight 27+ game; lean moves from sell to hold.

    Tier

    2

    Per week

    21.8

    Above repl.

    +13.4

    Wks 15–17

    22.8

    Games

    10

    commish →
12. 12QB10Jayden DanielsWAS · @tsinghHold23.0+0.5

    1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    2. Week 8: expected 21.8, likely 15.2–28.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.58
    3. Week 9: expected 20.7, likely 14.5–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–31.99
    4. Week 10: expected 24.8, likely 17.3–32, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–38.210
    5. Week 11: expected 24.3, likely 17–31.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.411
    6. Week 12: expected 27.7, likely 19.4–35.7, 10th–90th percentile 12.2–42.612
    7. Week 13: expected 24.3, likely 17–31.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.513
    8. Week 14: expected 23.5, likely 16.4–30.3, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–36.114
    9. Week 15: expected 21.4, likely 15–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–3315
    10. Week 16: expected 20.2, likely 14.2–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.9–31.216
    11. Week 17: expected 21.6, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.217

    Monday night was 29 of 40 for 300 yards and two TDs at San Francisco (26.7 in our scoring); the cached stat feed caught only part of that game, so ignore the 5.05 some tools show. He's 25.6 ppg in four games, but Week 6 had only four carries for 10 yards, and the running is what separates him in our scoring. I raise him from 22.5 to 23, over Sleeper's 21. Week 7 bye. A twice-dislocated elbow and four sacks Monday keep the risk real. Fair at 3,852; tsingh holds.

    Why not the projection (21.0) 23 per game, above Sleeper's 21: 25.6 ppg in four healthy games.

    What changed ppg up from 22.5 to 23 after a 26.7 on Monday night.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    20.9

    Above repl.

    +12.5

    Wks 15–17

    21.1

    Games

    10

    Tua deez nuts →
13. 13RB3Bijan RobinsonATL · @ShukyHold26.5-1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 26.7, likely 17.9–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 12.3–45.47
    2. Week 8: expected 25.4, likely 17–31.3, 10th–90th percentile 11.7–43.28
    3. Week 9: expected 29.0, likely 19.4–35.6, 10th–90th percentile 13.3–49.39
    4. Week 10: expected 25.2, likely 16.9–31, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–42.910
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 24.1, likely 16.1–29.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–40.912
    7. Week 13: expected 29.0, likely 19.4–35.6, 10th–90th percentile 13.3–49.213
    8. Week 14: expected 25.8, likely 17.3–31.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–43.914
    9. Week 15: expected 27.0, likely 18.1–33.2, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–45.915
    10. Week 16: expected 25.6, likely 17.1–31.4, 10th–90th percentile 11.8–43.416
    11. Week 17: expected 27.8, likely 18.6–34.2, 10th–90th percentile 12.8–47.217

    Nine carries for 61 yards and two catches for minus 8 in the loss to Chicago; Atlanta abandoned the run trailing by three scores (source: nbcsports.com). That's 8.85 here, his second straight game under 20 after 32.85 and 42.2, and he's down to 25 a game. The touch volume and 40-point ceiling haven't gone anywhere, but game script has now beaten him twice and the bye still costs a week, so he drops to the top of Tier 3. At 9,926 the market still prices him as a top-two back; hold, since selling low on two games is how you lose a trade.

    What changed Down a point to 26.5 and out of Tier 2 after 8.85 against Chicago, his second straight game under 20; his remaining bye now puts his per-week value below Walker's and Gibbs's by a clear margin.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    24.1

    Above repl.

    +12.4

    Wks 15–17

    26.8

    Games

    10

    To infinity and bijan →
14. 14QB11Caleb WilliamsCHI · @PredjsHold22.5-0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 21.6, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.27
    2. Week 8: expected 19.3, likely 11.6–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.78
    3. Week 9: expected 21.9, likely 15.3–28.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.79
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    5. Week 11: expected 22.0, likely 15.4–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–33.911
    6. Week 12: expected 25.5, likely 17.9–32.9, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.312
    7. Week 13: expected 20.1, likely 14.1–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–30.913
    8. Week 14: expected 25.2, likely 17.6–32.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–38.714
    9. Week 15: expected 22.1, likely 15.5–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–3415
    10. Week 16: expected 22.1, likely 15.5–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–3416
    11. Week 17: expected 25.5, likely 17.9–32.9, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.317

    Back from injury in Week 6: 30 of 36 for 305 yards and a TD against Atlanta (19.95 in our scoring), efficient but without the rushing. I trim him from 23 to 22.5, in line with Sleeper. His value per week is tier 3, but I keep him tier 2, one up, because Weeks 14-17 project at 22-25.5, near the top of the board. Week 10 bye. FantasyCalc's 5,033 is fair for a healthy starter; Predjs holds.

    What changed ppg trimmed from 23 to 22.5 after a quiet return game; he's healthy now, so position rank likely moves.

    Tier

    2

    Per week

    20.5

    Above repl.

    +12.1

    Wks 15–17

    23.2

    Games

    10

    Coked up Dakshots →
15. 15WR1Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · @SettytsHold28.0+0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 26.1, likely 17.2–32.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–41.57
    2. Week 8: expected 29.0, likely 19.1–35.6, 10th–90th percentile 8.7–468
    3. Week 9: expected 30.0, likely 19.8–36.9, 10th–90th percentile 9–47.69
    4. Week 10: expected 28.8, likely 19–35.4, 10th–90th percentile 8.6–45.810
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 27.3, likely 18–33.6, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–43.412
    7. Week 13: expected 30.2, likely 19.9–37.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–4813
    8. Week 14: expected 28.4, likely 18.7–34.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.5–45.114
    9. Week 15: expected 27.2, likely 17.9–33.4, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–43.215
    10. Week 16: expected 26.5, likely 17.5–32.6, 10th–90th percentile 8–42.216
    11. Week 17: expected 27.1, likely 17.9–33.3, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–43.117

    Week 6 was 28.25, and he's at 30.2 ppg with only one game under 24, still the best WR on the board by almost five points a game. He's the center of Seattle's passing game. Week 11 is his bye, and the playoff weeks project about 27 each. FantasyCalc's 10222 is the top WR price and deserved; Settyts should only move him for an overpay.

    Why not the projection (27.1) 28 vs Sleeper's 27.1: he's at 30.2 ppg through six games; we stay a bit under that for regression.

    What changed ppg 27.5 to 28 after another 28-point game. Replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts his value above replacement, but he stays Tier 3 and WR1.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    25.5

    Above repl.

    +11.8

    Wks 15–17

    26.9

    Games

    10

    WALLAHI on the Beat →
16. 16QB12C.J. StroudHOU · @nikashBuy22.0+1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 22.9, likely 16.1–29.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.37
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    3. Week 9: expected 21.6, likely 15.1–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.39
    4. Week 10: expected 20.8, likely 14.5–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–3210
    5. Week 11: expected 22.5, likely 15.7–29, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–34.611
    6. Week 12: expected 21.5, likely 15–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.112
    7. Week 13: expected 21.9, likely 15.4–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–33.813
    8. Week 14: expected 26.1, likely 18.3–33.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–40.214
    9. Week 15: expected 20.3, likely 14.2–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 8.9–31.315
    10. Week 16: expected 20.5, likely 14.3–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9–31.516
    11. Week 17: expected 22.3, likely 15.6–28.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–34.417

    Week 6 was 24 of 34 for 312 yards, three TDs and a pick (30.05 in our scoring), his third 24+ game in a row with Nico Collins healthy (30.25, 24.45, 30.05). I raise him from 21 to 22, well over Sleeper's 20. Week 8 bye; Week 14 projects 23.8. FantasyCalc's 2,778 is cheaper than Shough and Stafford for a better trend; buy.

    Why not the projection (20.0) 22 per game, above Sleeper's 20: 28.3 ppg over his last three.

    What changed ppg up from 21 to 22 after a third straight 24+ game; position rank likely rises.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    20.0

    Above repl.

    +11.6

    Wks 15–17

    21.0

    Games

    10

    The Naughty Betas →
17. 17QB13Dak PrescottDAL · @PredjsHold22.0-1.5

    1. Week 7: expected 20.2, likely 14.1–26, 10th–90th percentile 8.9–31.17
    2. Week 8: expected 27.1, likely 19–35, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–41.88
    3. Week 9: expected 23.0, likely 16.1–29.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.49
    4. Week 10: expected 21.2, likely 14.8–27.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–32.610
    5. Week 11: expected 23.4, likely 16.4–30.2, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–36.111
    6. Week 12: expected 20.9, likely 14.6–27, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.212
    7. Week 13: expected 20.1, likely 14.1–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–30.913
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected14
    9. Week 15: expected 19.6, likely 11.8–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.215
    10. Week 16: expected 20.8, likely 14.6–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–3216
    11. Week 17: expected 23.3, likely 16.3–30.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–35.917

    Week 6 was 34 of 54 for 258 yards, a TD and two picks (15.9 in our scoring), his second straight sub-18 game with four INTs in two weeks, each costing 2 here. The volume keeps paying through our passing first downs, but the efficiency is gone, so I cut him from 23.5 to 22, near Sleeper's 21.5. Week 14 bye, in the middle of the stretch. Fair at 3,921; Predjs starts him alongside Caleb.

    Why not the projection (21.5) 22 per game against Sleeper's 21.5: the volume holds even with the picks.

    What changed Tier 2 to 3 and ppg 23.5 to 22 after two straight sub-18 games with four interceptions.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    20.0

    Above repl.

    +11.6

    Wks 15–17

    21.2

    Games

    10

    Coked up Dakshots →
18. 18QB14Jordan LoveGB · @tsinghHold22.0+0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 24.5, likely 17.2–31.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–37.77
    2. Week 8: expected 20.1, likely 14.1–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–318
    3. Week 9: expected 21.0, likely 14.7–27, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.39
    4. Week 10: expected 19.2, likely 11.5–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.410
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 19.4, likely 11.6–26, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.812
    7. Week 13: expected 22.2, likely 15.5–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–34.213
    8. Week 14: expected 22.4, likely 15.7–28.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–34.514
    9. Week 15: expected 25.7, likely 18–33.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–39.615
    10. Week 16: expected 22.9, likely 16–29.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.216
    11. Week 17: expected 22.2, likely 15.6–28.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–34.217

    Week 6 was 23 of 41 for 276 yards, a TD, a pick and a rushing TD (25.5 in our scoring), his third straight 25+ game. Better protection is holding, so I move him from 21.5 to 22, above Sleeper's 21.2. Week 11 bye. FantasyCalc's 3,535 is fair; tsingh starts him alongside Daniels.

    Why not the projection (21.2) 22 per game, above Sleeper's 21.2: 22.9 ppg and three strong games in a row.

    What changed ppg up from 21.5 to 22 after a third straight 25+ game.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    20.0

    Above repl.

    +11.6

    Wks 15–17

    23.6

    Games

    10

    Tua deez nuts →
19. 19QB15Matthew StaffordLAR · @vtandaleHold22.0–

    1. Week 7: expected 23.1, likely 16.2–29.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–35.67
    2. Week 8: expected 20.8, likely 14.5–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–328
    3. Week 9: expected 25.4, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.19
    4. Week 10: expected 25.8, likely 18.1–33.3, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–39.810
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 21.4, likely 15–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–3312
    7. Week 13: expected 19.4, likely 11.6–26, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.713
    8. Week 14: expected 20.0, likely 14–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–30.814
    9. Week 15: expected 23.8, likely 16.6–30.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–36.615
    10. Week 16: expected 18.9, likely 11.4–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–3216
    11. Week 17: expected 21.7, likely 15.2–28.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.517

    Week 6 was 25 of 33 for 222 yards and two TDs, no picks and no carries (19.2 in our scoring), a steadier game than his usual swings. He's 23 ppg, but with no rushing floor the range stays wide (6.95 to 34.65). I keep 22, over Sleeper's 20.1. Week 11 bye, and Weeks 15 and 17 project under 20. Fair at 3,913; still the QB vtandale should shop first.

    Why not the projection (20.1) 22 per game, above Sleeper's 20.1: 23 ppg through six games.

    What changed Position rank likely moves as the QBs around him shift; 22 per game is unchanged.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    20.0

    Above repl.

    +11.6

    Wks 15–17

    21.5

    Games

    10

    96 bulls →
20. 20QB16Tyler ShoughNO · @vtandaleHold21.0+0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 19.9, likely 11.9–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.67
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    3. Week 9: expected 20.0, likely 12–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.89
    4. Week 10: expected 19.7, likely 11.8–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.310
    5. Week 11: expected 22.1, likely 15.5–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–34.111
    6. Week 12: expected 21.5, likely 15–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–33.112
    7. Week 13: expected 21.5, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.213
    8. Week 14: expected 19.6, likely 11.8–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.114
    9. Week 15: expected 21.5, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.115
    10. Week 16: expected 25.8, likely 18–33.3, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–39.716
    11. Week 17: expected 19.0, likely 11.4–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–3217

    Week 6 bounced back from the 1.5: 16 of 30 for 144 yards and three TDs plus five carries for 32 yards and a rushing TD (31.45 in our scoring). The TDs saved a thin passing day, but the rushing is new and it pays here. I move him from 20.5 to 21, slightly over Sleeper's 20.4. Week 8 bye. FantasyCalc's 3,762 is fair; vtandale holds.

    Why not the projection (20.4) 21 per game, above Sleeper's 20.4: 22.5 ppg with the rushing now showing up.

    What changed ppg up from 20.5 to 21 after a 31.45 rebound with a rushing TD.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    19.1

    Above repl.

    +10.7

    Wks 15–17

    22.1

    Games

    10

    96 bulls →
21. 21QB17Kyler MurrayMIN · @ShukyBuy18.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 21.9, likely 15.3–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.77
    2. Week 8: expected 20.9, likely 14.6–26.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.18
    3. Week 9: expected 17.9, likely 10.7–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.29
    4. Week 10: expected 17.9, likely 10.7–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.310
    5. Week 11: expected 16.4, likely 9.8–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.711
    6. Week 12: expected 15.8, likely 9.5–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.712
    7. Week 13: expected 16.7, likely 10–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.213
    8. Week 14: expected 16.7, likely 10–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.214
    9. Week 15: expected 21.0, likely 14.7–27, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.315
    10. Week 16: expected 20.8, likely 14.5–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–3216
    11. Week 17: expected 18.0, likely 10.8–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.417

    Week 6 was Minnesota's bye; his last three games were 14.5, 16.35 and 24.05, with the 10-carry Week 5 the role we want in our scoring (+0.15 per carry plus rushing first downs). The bye is done, so all 11 weeks count, which lifts him just over the tier-3 line at 18.5, under Sleeper's 20.6. FantasyCalc's 1,722 is cheap for a QB starting on a winning team; buy.

    Why not the projection (20.6) 18.5 per game, under Sleeper's 20.6: 18.3 ppg in his three healthy games, on a run-first team.

    What changed Tier 4 to 3: the bye passed, so his per-week value now clears 10 above replacement.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    18.5

    Above repl.

    +10.1

    Wks 15–17

    19.9

    Games

    11

    To infinity and bijan →
22. 22WR2Puka NacuaLAR · @skollurHold26.0+0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 26.7, likely 17.6–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 8–42.47
    2. Week 8: expected 26.2, likely 17.3–32.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–41.78
    3. Week 9: expected 28.3, likely 18.7–34.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.5–459
    4. Week 10: expected 27.9, likely 18.4–34.4, 10th–90th percentile 8.4–44.410
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 25.4, likely 16.8–31.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.6–40.412
    7. Week 13: expected 23.9, likely 15.8–29.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–3813
    8. Week 14: expected 24.2, likely 16–29.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–38.514
    9. Week 15: expected 27.4, likely 18.1–33.6, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–43.515
    10. Week 16: expected 23.8, likely 15.7–29.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–37.816
    11. Week 17: expected 26.2, likely 17.3–32.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–41.617

    Week 6 was 6 catches on 7 targets for 80 yards (15.3) in the 18-16 loss to Arizona, with a 45-yard catch wiped out by a penalty (source: cbssports.com). The bigger news is that Davante Adams got hurt late in that game and McVay says he'll miss 6-10 weeks (source: nbcsports.com), so Puka is the only proven receiver Stafford has into December. The math puts him at the top of Tier 4 with the Week 11 bye; we move him to Tier 3 for the target share Adams leaves. FantasyCalc's 8741 is fair; skollur holds.

    Why not the projection (24.4) 26 vs Sleeper's 24.4: he's at 25.3 ppg and Adams' targets go to him for at least six weeks.

    What changed Tier 4 to 3 and ppg 25.5 to 26: Adams is out 6-10 weeks, and replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts every WR's value.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    23.6

    Above repl.

    +9.9

    Wks 15–17

    25.8

    Games

    10

    JSN’s backpack →
23. 23RB4Chuba HubbardCAR · @PredjsBuy21.5+1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 21.9, likely 14.7–27, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–37.37
    2. Week 8: expected 22.8, likely 15.3–28.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–38.88
    3. Week 9: expected 21.4, likely 14.4–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.49
    4. Week 10: expected 22.6, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–38.410
    5. Week 11: expected 20.8, likely 13.9–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–35.411
    6. Week 12: expected 20.6, likely 13.8–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–3512
    7. Week 13: expected 19.6, likely 12.2–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 9–32.813
    8. Week 14: expected 22.8, likely 15.3–28, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–38.714
    9. Week 15: expected 23.8, likely 15.9–29.2, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–40.415
    10. Week 16: expected 20.8, likely 13.9–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–35.316
    11. Week 17: expected 19.9, likely 12.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–33.317

    24.7 here in Week 6, and he's at 23.4 a game in five games, with every game at 17 or better. Jonathon Brooks is out at least six weeks after core-muscle surgery (source: draftsharks.com), so the job is his alone into November, and with no bye left he's projected all 11 weeks. Brooks's return is the only thing between him and Tier 3, which is why we stop at 21.5. At 3,926 he's priced like a flex for a top-eight back in our scoring; buy.

    Why not the projection (19.8) 21.5, above Sleeper's 19.8: 23.4 a game here as Carolina's only back while Brooks is out.

    What changed Up a point to 21.5 after 24.7 in Week 6; his per-week value now sits at the top of Tier 4.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    21.5

    Above repl.

    +9.8

    Wks 15–17

    21.5

    Games

    11

    Coked up Dakshots →
24. 24QB18Aaron RodgersPIT · @skollurBuy20.0+0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 23.0, likely 14.4–31.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–38.57
    2. Week 8: expected 19.4, likely 9.7–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–36.18
    3. Week 9: bye or not projected9
    4. Week 10: expected 20.5, likely 12.8–28, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–34.410
    5. Week 11: expected 19.2, likely 9.6–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–35.711
    6. Week 12: expected 18.4, likely 9.2–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 3–34.212
    7. Week 13: expected 20.8, likely 13–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–34.813
    8. Week 14: expected 19.1, likely 9.5–27.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–35.514
    9. Week 15: expected 20.1, likely 12.6–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 6–33.715
    10. Week 16: expected 18.7, likely 9.3–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–34.816
    11. Week 17: expected 21.4, likely 13.4–29.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–35.917

    Week 6 was 33 of 49 for 253 yards, two TDs and a pick (20.9 in our scoring), his fifth straight game over 16 since the Week 2 3.0. Pittsburgh keeps throwing and he's 21 ppg, so I raise him from 19.5 to 20, over Sleeper's 18.1. No rushing, so the swings stay wide. Week 9 bye. FantasyCalc's 1,842 is cheap for a tier-3 QB in superflex; buy.

    Why not the projection (18.1) 20 per game, above Sleeper's 18.1: 21 ppg and five straight games over 16.

    What changed ppg up from 19.5 to 20 after another 20+ game.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    18.2

    Above repl.

    +9.8

    Wks 15–17

    20.1

    Games

    10

    JSN’s backpack →
25. 25RB5Derrick HenryBAL · @SettytsHold23.0-1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 24.3, likely 16.3–29.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–41.27
    2. Week 8: expected 22.7, likely 15.2–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–38.58
    3. Week 9: expected 21.6, likely 14.5–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.79
    4. Week 10: expected 23.2, likely 15.6–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–39.510
    5. Week 11: expected 24.9, likely 16.7–30.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–42.311
    6. Week 12: expected 22.0, likely 14.8–27.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–37.512
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: expected 21.8, likely 14.6–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 10–3714
    9. Week 15: expected 21.9, likely 14.7–26.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–37.215
    10. Week 16: expected 22.6, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–38.416
    11. Week 17: expected 24.9, likely 16.7–30.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–42.317

    Seventeen carries for 58 yards and a lost fourth-quarter fumble in the upset loss to Cleveland, with Lamar Jackson out again (source: nbcsports.com). That's 6.15 here, the fumble costing 4, after five straight games over 20; he's at 23.3 a game. Week 6 was his floor with a backup QB and a bad script, not a role change, but Baltimore is 1-5 and Jackson's ankle keeps the boxes heavy. We trim a point to 23, which drops him to the top of Tier 4; at 6,416 he's cheaper than McCaffrey and Taylor for as much output; hold.

    Why not the projection (19.8) 23, above Sleeper's 19.8: he's at 23.3 a game here on a workhorse carry load that our carry and first-down scoring rewards.

    What changed Down a point to 23 and from Tier 3 to 4 after a 6.15 with a lost fumble; Lamar Jackson's absence keeps the offense limited.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    20.9

    Above repl.

    +9.2

    Wks 15–17

    23.1

    Games

    10

    WALLAHI on the Beat →
26. 26RB6Jonathan TaylorIND · @somickeyHold23.0–

    1. Week 7: expected 20.9, likely 14–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–35.67
    2. Week 8: expected 21.4, likely 14.3–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–36.38
    3. Week 9: expected 24.5, likely 16.4–30.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–41.79
    4. Week 10: expected 24.1, likely 16.1–29.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–40.910
    5. Week 11: expected 22.0, likely 14.7–27.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–37.411
    6. Week 12: expected 24.7, likely 16.5–30.3, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–41.912
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: expected 21.2, likely 14.2–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–36.114
    9. Week 15: expected 23.2, likely 15.5–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–39.415
    10. Week 16: expected 25.3, likely 16.9–31.1, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–4316
    11. Week 17: expected 22.3, likely 14.9–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–37.917

    24 here in Week 6, a bounce-back after his 14.6 dud, and he's at 23.3 a game with a 13-to-34 range. Rookie Seth McGowan has been taking a quarter of the snaps (source: draftsharks.com), which caps his weekly ceiling, but in Colts wins he gets 20-plus carries and our carry and first-down scoring pays. We stay at 23, a bit under Sleeper's 23.9. At 7,688 he's priced as a top-five back for top-10 output; hold, but don't buy.

    Why not the projection (23.9) 23, a bit under Sleeper's 23.9: McGowan's snap share trims his ceiling.

    What changed Same 23 ppg, but slips from RB5 to RB6 as Hubbard's 21.5 with no bye left passes him.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    20.9

    Above repl.

    +9.2

    Wks 15–17

    23.6

    Games

    10

    somickey →
27. 27QB19Kirk CousinsLV · @arireddyHold21.5+0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 19.8, likely 11.9–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.47
    2. Week 8: expected 22.7, likely 15.9–29.3, 10th–90th percentile 10–358
    3. Week 9: expected 20.9, likely 14.7–27, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.29
    4. Week 10: expected 19.8, likely 11.9–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.510
    5. Week 11: expected 20.0, likely 12–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.811
    6. Week 12: expected 20.9, likely 14.7–27, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.212
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: expected 21.7, likely 15.2–28, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.514
    9. Week 15: expected 19.9, likely 12–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.715
    10. Week 16: expected 11.5, likely 0–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–31.5 (questionable)16
    11. Week 17: expected 13.3, likely 0–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–36.5 (questionable)17

    Week 6 was 23 of 41 for 313 yards, two TDs and a pick against Buffalo (25.05 in our scoring), with Kubiak reaffirming him as the starter over Fernando Mendoza beforehand (source: newsweek.com). He's 23.5 ppg, so I raise him from 21 to 21.5, but the No. 1 pick waiting behind him keeps Weeks 16-17 as coin flips. Week 13 bye. FantasyCalc's 2,071 is a fair-to-cheap price for a tier-3 starter; arireddy holds.

    Why not the projection (20.4) 21.5 per game, above Sleeper's 20.4: 23.5 ppg as the Raiders' starter.

    What changed Tier 4 to 3 after a 25.05 against Buffalo and a reaffirmed starting job; ppg up from 21 to 21.5.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    17.3

    Above repl.

    +8.9

    Wks 15–17

    14.9

    Games

    9

    dogwater →
28. 28RB7Christian McCaffreySF · @somickeyHold22.5+0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 21.1, likely 14.1–26, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–35.97
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    3. Week 9: expected 24.1, likely 16.2–29.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–419
    4. Week 10: expected 24.4, likely 16.3–30, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–41.410
    5. Week 11: expected 21.2, likely 14.2–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–36.111
    6. Week 12: expected 21.5, likely 14.4–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.512
    7. Week 13: expected 24.1, likely 16.2–29.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–4113
    8. Week 14: expected 21.8, likely 14.6–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 10–37.114
    9. Week 15: expected 23.2, likely 15.5–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–39.415
    10. Week 16: expected 21.9, likely 14.7–26.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–37.216
    11. Week 17: expected 21.8, likely 14.6–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 10–37.117

    31.95 here in the Monday night win over Washington, his best game of the season, and he's at 22.7 a game. The 49ers still manage his carries, so the floor depends on catches and TDs rather than a 20-carry workload. Sleeper projects 24.9; we're at 22.5, Tier 4 with the Week 8 bye still to come. At 7,328 he's priced near Taylor and above Cook for about the same output in our scoring; hold, and sell only for a premium.

    Why not the projection (24.9) 22.5, under Sleeper's 24.9: he's at 22.7 a game here on a managed workload, and only one game over 25.2.

    What changed Up 0.5 to 22.5 after a season-best 31.95 in Week 6; lean moves from sell to hold.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    20.5

    Above repl.

    +8.8

    Wks 15–17

    22.3

    Games

    10

    somickey →
29. 29QB20Jacoby BrissettARI · @ShukyHold18.5-0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 17.1, likely 8.5–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–31.87
    2. Week 8: expected 21.2, likely 13.2–28.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–35.58
    3. Week 9: expected 16.3, likely 8.1–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–30.39
    4. Week 10: expected 15.9, likely 8–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–29.610
    5. Week 11: expected 16.8, likely 8.4–24, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–31.311
    6. Week 12: expected 22.5, likely 14–30.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–37.612
    7. Week 13: expected 17.1, likely 8.6–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–31.913
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected14
    9. Week 15: expected 19.2, likely 9.6–27.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–35.715
    10. Week 16: expected 18.7, likely 9.3–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–34.816
    11. Week 17: expected 20.7, likely 12.9–28.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–34.717

    Week 6 was 24 of 35 for 218 yards, no TDs and a pick (11 in our scoring), so the boom-bust pattern holds: 22.65, 8.4, 32, 12.9, 31.95, 11. A losing Arizona team keeps throwing, so 18.5 is fair, close to Sleeper's 18.7, but the weekly range is the widest of any starter. Week 14 bye. At 1,680 he's Shuky's fourth QB and a fine SUPER_FLEX bye fill-in.

    What changed ppg trimmed from 19 to 18.5 after an 11-point game; position rank likely slips.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    16.9

    Above repl.

    +8.5

    Wks 15–17

    19.5

    Games

    10

    To infinity and bijan →
30. 30TE1Brock BowersLV · @vtandaleHold29.5-0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 28.3, likely 20.1–32.6, 10th–90th percentile 14.9–41.47
    2. Week 8: expected 30.1, likely 21.5–34.7, 10th–90th percentile 15.9–44.18
    3. Week 9: expected 29.2, likely 20.8–33.6, 10th–90th percentile 15.4–42.79
    4. Week 10: expected 28.5, likely 20.3–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 15.1–41.710
    5. Week 11: expected 27.9, likely 19.9–32.2, 10th–90th percentile 14.7–40.911
    6. Week 12: expected 29.1, likely 20.7–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 15.3–42.512
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: expected 30.2, likely 21.5–34.8, 10th–90th percentile 16–44.214
    9. Week 15: expected 27.8, likely 19.8–32.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.7–40.815
    10. Week 16: expected 31.8, likely 22.6–36.6, 10th–90th percentile 16.8–46.616
    11. Week 17: expected 31.7, likely 22.6–36.5, 10th–90th percentile 16.7–46.417

    Four of 9 for 70 in the loss to Buffalo, 19.25 here, after a quiet first half and a week of limited practices for the knee (sources: nbcsports.com, nbcsports.com). He's still at 33.1 a game in four games and the Raiders' target leader, so one soft week doesn't change the role. We're 2.6 over Sleeper at 29.5, TE1 on the board by a hair, about 8 over replacement; the formula says T4 and his ceiling (45.6 in Week 3) earns the bump back to T3. FantasyCalc's 7,155 is the top TE price and fair; hold, with the managed knee the only reason it isn't a buy.

    Why not the projection (26.9) Above Sleeper's 26.9: 33.1 a game in his four games, team target leader every week.

    What changed Tier 2 to 3 because the TE replacement level rose 4.2 points (Hockenson dropped); ppg trimmed 30 to 29.5 after 19.25 in Week 6 on a limited practice week. Still TE1.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    26.8

    Above repl.

    +8.3

    Wks 15–17

    30.4

    Games

    10

    96 bulls →
31. 31WR3Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · @skollurHold22.0-0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 22.2, likely 14.7–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–35.47
    2. Week 8: expected 19.9, likely 11.5–26.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.88
    3. Week 9: expected 24.5, likely 16.2–30.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–399
    4. Week 10: expected 21.3, likely 14–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–33.810
    5. Week 11: expected 22.7, likely 15–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–36.111
    6. Week 12: expected 22.5, likely 14.9–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–35.812
    7. Week 13: expected 21.4, likely 14.1–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–3413
    8. Week 14: expected 23.1, likely 15.3–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–36.814
    9. Week 15: expected 19.9, likely 11.6–26.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.915
    10. Week 16: expected 22.0, likely 14.5–27, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–3516
    11. Week 17: expected 22.6, likely 14.9–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–35.917

    Detroit had its bye in Week 6, so nothing changed: he's at 22.0 ppg, with two quiet games (16.9, 12.25) before the bye after a 29.7 and 38.65 start. He led Detroit with 11 targets in Week 5, and with his bye behind him he's projected every remaining week, including about 20-22.5 in the playoffs. FantasyCalc's 8017 is about right; skollur holds.

    What changed ppg 22.5 to 22 to match his 22.0 season average. Replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which moves him into the middle of Tier 4 from its bottom edge.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    22.0

    Above repl.

    +8.3

    Wks 15–17

    21.5

    Games

    11

    JSN’s backpack →
32. 32WR4CeeDee LambDAL · @arireddyBuy24.0-0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 22.5, likely 14.9–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–35.87
    2. Week 8: expected 26.1, likely 17.2–32.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–41.58
    3. Week 9: expected 24.5, likely 16.2–30.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–38.99
    4. Week 10: expected 23.3, likely 15.4–28.7, 10th–90th percentile 7–3710
    5. Week 11: expected 25.7, likely 17–31.6, 10th–90th percentile 7.7–40.911
    6. Week 12: expected 23.2, likely 15.3–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–36.812
    7. Week 13: expected 22.9, likely 15.1–28.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–36.513
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected14
    9. Week 15: expected 22.7, likely 15–28, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–36.215
    10. Week 16: expected 24.3, likely 16–29.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–38.716
    11. Week 17: expected 24.5, likely 16.2–30.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–3917

    He played through the quad bruise and drew 18 targets, catching 9 for 70 yards (17.45) in the 23-13 loss at Green Bay (source: draftsharks.com). That's the volume of a top-three WR in a 2-4 team that has to throw, and he's at 23.9 ppg. Week 14 is Dallas's bye, the only blemish on the playoff run. FantasyCalc's 7633 sits below Chase (8456); buy from arireddy.

    Why not the projection (20.9) 24 vs Sleeper's 20.9: he's at 23.9 ppg and got 18 targets in his first game back from the bruise.

    What changed ppg 24.5 to 24 after a 17.45 on 18 targets; replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which keeps him in Tier 4 with more room above the line.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    21.8

    Above repl.

    +8.1

    Wks 15–17

    23.8

    Games

    10

    dogwater →
33. 33QB21Michael PenixATL · @skollurHold18.0+1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 18.8, likely 11.3–25.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–31.77
    2. Week 8: expected 17.9, likely 10.8–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.38
    3. Week 9: expected 17.8, likely 10.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.19
    4. Week 10: expected 16.1, likely 9.7–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.310
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 15.1, likely 9.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.612
    7. Week 13: expected 20.9, likely 14.6–27, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.213
    8. Week 14: expected 16.7, likely 10–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.114
    9. Week 15: expected 21.0, likely 14.7–27.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–32.415
    10. Week 16: expected 17.9, likely 10.7–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.316
    11. Week 17: expected 17.8, likely 10.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.117

    Played through the rib injury in Week 6 (source: fieldlevelmedia.com): 19 of 33 for 225 yards and three TDs, but a lost fumble cost 4 (24.1 in our scoring). He's 19.1 ppg in four games back from the ACL, and Sleeper still tags him questionable, so the ribs are worth watching. I raise him from 17 to 18, over Sleeper's 17.4. Week 11 bye. At 1,308 he's a fair-priced SUPER_FLEX hold for skollur.

    Why not the projection (17.4) 18 per game, above Sleeper's 17.4: 19.1 ppg since returning.

    What changed ppg up from 17 to 18 after a three-TD game; the Week 6 questionable tag is gone because he played.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    16.4

    Above repl.

    +8.0

    Wks 15–17

    18.9

    Games

    10

    JSN’s backpack →
34. 34TE2Trey McBrideARI · @tsinghHold29.0-0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 27.0, likely 19.2–31.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.3–39.57
    2. Week 8: expected 31.8, likely 22.6–36.6, 10th–90th percentile 16.8–46.58
    3. Week 9: expected 27.8, likely 19.8–32.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.7–40.89
    4. Week 10: expected 27.2, likely 19.4–31.3, 10th–90th percentile 14.4–39.810
    5. Week 11: expected 28.0, likely 19.9–32.3, 10th–90th percentile 14.8–4111
    6. Week 12: expected 31.4, likely 22.4–36.2, 10th–90th percentile 16.6–4612
    7. Week 13: expected 28.0, likely 19.9–32.2, 10th–90th percentile 14.8–40.913
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected14
    9. Week 15: expected 29.3, likely 20.9–33.8, 10th–90th percentile 15.5–42.915
    10. Week 16: expected 29.7, likely 21.2–34.2, 10th–90th percentile 15.7–43.516
    11. Week 17: expected 29.7, likely 21.2–34.2, 10th–90th percentile 15.7–43.517

    Seven of 9 for 53 in the Week 6 win over the Rams, 24.8 here, against the defense that has allowed the fewest TE points, with an interception on his first target and a goal-line screen stopped for a loss (source: nbcsports.com). That's 29.1 a game over six with double-digit targets in five straight, the steadiest TE1 role in a format that pays double per catch. At 29 he's about 8 a week over the best free agent, which is T4 by the formula; we keep him in T3 because the 18.5 replacement is one just-dropped Hockenson projection and nobody else gives this floor. His Week 14 bye falls just before the Weeks 15-17 playoff window; hold.

    What changed Tier 2 to 3 and ppg 29.5 to 29: the TE replacement level jumped from 14.3 to 18.5 with T.J. Hockenson on waivers, which cuts about 4 points a week off his value over replacement; still TE2.

    Tier

    3

    Per week

    26.4

    Above repl.

    +7.9

    Wks 15–17

    29.6

    Games

    10

    Tua deez nuts →
35. 35RB8James CookBUF · @tsinghHold21.5+1.0

    1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    2. Week 8: expected 20.8, likely 13.9–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–35.38
    3. Week 9: expected 19.7, likely 12.2–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–32.99
    4. Week 10: expected 21.1, likely 14.2–26, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–35.910
    5. Week 11: expected 22.5, likely 15.1–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–38.211
    6. Week 12: expected 20.7, likely 13.8–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–35.112
    7. Week 13: expected 21.5, likely 14.4–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.513
    8. Week 14: expected 21.8, likely 14.6–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 10–37.114
    9. Week 15: expected 23.3, likely 15.6–28.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–39.715
    10. Week 16: expected 21.3, likely 14.3–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–36.216
    11. Week 17: expected 22.3, likely 14.9–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–37.817

    30.35 here in Week 6, his best game of the season, and he's at 21.9 a game with five straight games over 18. He barely catches passes, so close losses cap him, but he's had the volume in Buffalo's wins and our carry and first-down scoring pays for it. We go up a point to 21.5; his Week 7 bye is next. At 6,662 he's priced above Kyren, Javonte and Hubbard for about the same output; hold, or sell if someone pays for the name.

    Why not the projection (20.1) 21.5, above Sleeper's 20.1: five straight games over 18 here, 21.9 a game.

    What changed Up a point to 21.5 after 30.35 in Week 6.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    19.5

    Above repl.

    +7.8

    Wks 15–17

    22.3

    Games

    10

    Tua deez nuts →
36. 36RB9Kyren WilliamsLAR · @skollurHold21.0-1.5

    1. Week 7: expected 22.1, likely 14.8–27.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–37.57
    2. Week 8: expected 21.5, likely 14.4–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.68
    3. Week 9: expected 21.4, likely 14.3–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.49
    4. Week 10: expected 21.5, likely 14.4–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.510
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 21.6, likely 14.5–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.812
    7. Week 13: expected 20.2, likely 13.6–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–34.413
    8. Week 14: expected 19.9, likely 12.3–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–33.214
    9. Week 15: expected 22.6, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–38.415
    10. Week 16: expected 19.4, likely 12–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 8.9–32.316
    11. Week 17: expected 20.1, likely 13.5–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–34.217

    Ten carries for 50 yards and three catches in the 18-16 loss to Arizona: a season-low 13 touches, and Blake Corum got within two of him (sources: rotowire.com; nbcsports.com). That's 12.2 here after three straight games over 22, and he's still at 22.7 a game. He played 71% of the snaps, so this is a trim, not a demotion, but Corum's last two games (17.9, 15.95) make a real split possible. We cut to 21; at 5,089 he's still fairly priced, so we move from buy to hold.

    Why not the projection (22.3) 21, below Sleeper's 22.3: Corum's growing share in Weeks 5-6 cuts into his touches.

    What changed Down 1.5 to 21 and buy to hold: season-low 13 touches in Week 6 with Corum two touches behind.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    19.1

    Above repl.

    +7.4

    Wks 15–17

    20.7

    Games

    10

    JSN’s backpack →
37. 37RB10Javonte WilliamsDAL · @PredjsBuy20.5-0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 19.6, likely 12.1–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 9–32.77
    2. Week 8: expected 21.4, likely 14.3–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–36.48
    3. Week 9: expected 21.7, likely 14.5–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 10–36.99
    4. Week 10: expected 19.9, likely 12.3–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–33.210
    5. Week 11: expected 21.4, likely 14.3–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–36.411
    6. Week 12: expected 19.7, likely 12.2–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–32.912
    7. Week 13: expected 19.2, likely 11.9–24, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–3213
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected14
    9. Week 15: expected 19.6, likely 12.1–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 9–32.715
    10. Week 16: expected 19.8, likely 12.3–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–33.116
    11. Week 17: expected 22.4, likely 15–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–38.117

    15.25 here in Week 6, his second straight game in the mid-teens, and he's at 20.6 a game this season. He still has the Cowboys' goal-line job, which is what carries him, and the passing-game role is small, so non-TD weeks land around 12. We trim half a point to 20.5, under Sleeper's 22.2. At 3,952 he's priced well below Cook and McCaffrey for nearly the same output in our scoring; buy.

    Why not the projection (22.2) 20.5, under Sleeper's 22.2: he's at 20.6 a game here and depends on goal-line TDs.

    What changed Down half a point to 20.5 after two mid-teens games (16.6, 15.25).

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    18.6

    Above repl.

    +6.9

    Wks 15–17

    20.6

    Games

    10

    Coked up Dakshots →
38. 38QB22Geno SmithNYJ · @skollurHold16.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 18.1, likely 10.9–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.67
    2. Week 8: expected 17.9, likely 10.7–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.38
    3. Week 9: expected 14.7, likely 8.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.89
    4. Week 10: expected 16.4, likely 9.8–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.710
    5. Week 11: expected 15.9, likely 9.6–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.911
    6. Week 12: expected 19.1, likely 11.5–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.312
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: expected 14.4, likely 8.6–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.314
    9. Week 15: expected 19.8, likely 11.9–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.515
    10. Week 16: expected 15.2, likely 9.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.716
    11. Week 17: expected 13.7, likely 8.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–23.217

    Week 6 was 20 of 30 for 252 yards, a TD and a pick (17.3 in our scoring), right at his 17.2 ppg. A run-first, low-volume Jets offense caps him; I keep 16.5, under Sleeper's 17.9. Week 13 bye. FantasyCalc's 211 treats him as a free agent, but he's worth about 7 a week above replacement here; skollur keeps him as a SUPER_FLEX body.

    Why not the projection (17.9) 16.5 per game, under Sleeper's 17.9: 17.2 ppg on a low-volume offense.

    What changed Position rank likely moves with the shuffling around him; 16.5 per game is unchanged.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    15.0

    Above repl.

    +6.6

    Wks 15–17

    16.2

    Games

    10

    JSN’s backpack →
39. 39QB23Malik WillisMIA · @somickeyBuy15.0–

    1. Week 7: expected 14.5, likely 8.7–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.57
    2. Week 8: expected 14.0, likely 8.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.78
    3. Week 9: expected 17.5, likely 10.5–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.59
    4. Week 10: expected 15.2, likely 9.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.710
    5. Week 11: expected 14.9, likely 9–20, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.211
    6. Week 12: expected 15.1, likely 9.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.512
    7. Week 13: expected 13.4, likely 8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–22.613
    8. Week 14: expected 15.5, likely 9.3–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.214
    9. Week 15: expected 15.0, likely 9–20, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.315
    10. Week 16: expected 14.6, likely 8.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.716
    11. Week 17: expected 15.0, likely 9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.317

    Week 6 was Miami's bye; he's 14.3 ppg, and Jeff Hafley said there's no thought of benching him (source: rotoballer.com). The rushing gives him a floor, and the bye is behind him, so all 11 weeks count. I keep 15, well under Sleeper's 18.7. FantasyCalc's 91 treats him as a free agent, but a starting QB is worth about 6.6 a week above replacement in a league with three QB slots; buy if anyone will sell, and somickey should keep him.

    Why not the projection (18.7) 15 per game, well under Sleeper's 18.7: 14.3 ppg so far.

    What changed Bye passed, so his per-week value rises; lean moves to buy at a 91 market price.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    15.0

    Above repl.

    +6.6

    Wks 15–17

    14.9

    Games

    11

    somickey →
40. 40QB24Sam DarnoldSEA · @SettytsHold16.5-0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 14.7, likely 8.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.87
    2. Week 8: expected 17.0, likely 10.2–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.88
    3. Week 9: expected 19.9, likely 11.9–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.69
    4. Week 10: expected 18.1, likely 10.8–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.610
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 15.4, likely 9.2–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–2612
    7. Week 13: expected 18.4, likely 11.1–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–31.113
    8. Week 14: expected 17.0, likely 10.2–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.814
    9. Week 15: expected 15.1, likely 9.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.615
    10. Week 16: expected 14.2, likely 8.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–23.916
    11. Week 17: expected 15.0, likely 9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.317

    Week 6 was 27 of 51 for 278 yards, no TDs and two picks (16.2 in our scoring); 51 attempts kept the first downs coming, but the picks cost 2 each. Since the glute injury he's 33.5, 17.35, 11.7 and 16.2. I trim him from 17 to 16.5, under Sleeper's 19. Week 11 bye. Fair at 1,504; Settyts can play him in SUPER_FLEX in Allen's Week 7 bye.

    Why not the projection (19.0) 16.5 per game, under Sleeper's 19: 15.9 ppg and no TD passes in Week 6.

    What changed ppg trimmed from 17 to 16.5 after two more picks.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    15.0

    Above repl.

    +6.6

    Wks 15–17

    14.8

    Games

    10

    WALLAHI on the Beat →
41. 41WR5Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · @ShukySell20.0–

    1. Week 7: expected 20.7, likely 13.7–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–337
    2. Week 8: expected 21.0, likely 13.9–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.48
    3. Week 9: expected 19.5, likely 11.3–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–33.19
    4. Week 10: expected 20.3, likely 13.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–32.210
    5. Week 11: expected 21.7, likely 14.3–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.511
    6. Week 12: expected 20.1, likely 13.2–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6–31.912
    7. Week 13: expected 19.2, likely 11.1–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.713
    8. Week 14: expected 18.9, likely 10.9–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–32.114
    9. Week 15: expected 18.9, likely 11–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–32.215
    10. Week 16: expected 20.0, likely 13.2–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6–31.916
    11. Week 17: expected 19.9, likely 11.5–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.817

    Cincinnati had its bye in Week 6. He's at 17.1 ppg with two games under 7 (3.55, 6.1), and Burrow's passing volume hasn't supported two receivers the way it used to. At 20 he's about 6 a week above a free agent, the bottom of Tier 4. FantasyCalc's 8456 still prices him above Lamb and next to Puka, which his 2026 production hasn't earned. Shuky should sell.

    Why not the projection (20.5) 20 vs Sleeper's 20.5: he's at 17.1 ppg; we give him some credit for the ceiling but not Sleeper's full number.

    What changed Tier 5 to 4: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him over the Tier 4 line; our view of him didn't change.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    20.0

    Above repl.

    +6.3

    Wks 15–17

    19.6

    Games

    11

    To infinity and bijan →
42. 42QB25Bo NixDEN · @nikashSell16.0-1.5

    1. Week 7: expected 18.6, likely 11.2–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–31.57
    2. Week 8: expected 13.9, likely 8.3–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.58
    3. Week 9: expected 14.1, likely 8.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–23.99
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    5. Week 11: expected 17.0, likely 10.2–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.811
    6. Week 12: expected 15.2, likely 9.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.712
    7. Week 13: expected 18.1, likely 10.9–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.613
    8. Week 14: expected 15.8, likely 9.5–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.714
    9. Week 15: expected 17.0, likely 10.2–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.815
    10. Week 16: expected 15.6, likely 9.3–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.316
    11. Week 17: expected 14.4, likely 8.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.417

    Week 6 was 17 of 27 for 107 yards, no TDs and four runs for 2 yards (6.65 in our scoring), his second straight game under 7. He's 13.7 ppg, the passing doesn't stretch defenses, and the rushing floor has disappeared. I cut him from 17.5 to 16, far below Sleeper's 20.7. Week 10 bye. FantasyCalc's 2,060 is more than a low-end QB3 is worth; nikash should sell.

    Why not the projection (20.7) 16 per game, far under Sleeper's 20.7: 13.7 ppg and two straight games under 7.

    What changed ppg cut from 17.5 to 16 after another 6.65.

    Tier

    4

    Per week

    14.5

    Above repl.

    +6.1

    Wks 15–17

    15.7

    Games

    10

    The Naughty Betas →
43. 43WR6Chris OlaveNO · @somickeyBuy21.0-0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 20.7, likely 13.6–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–32.97
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    3. Week 9: expected 20.1, likely 13.3–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6–31.99
    4. Week 10: expected 19.7, likely 11.5–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.610
    5. Week 11: expected 21.6, likely 14.3–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.411
    6. Week 12: expected 21.8, likely 14.4–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.612
    7. Week 13: expected 21.2, likely 14–26, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.613
    8. Week 14: expected 19.8, likely 11.5–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.714
    9. Week 15: expected 21.8, likely 14.4–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.715
    10. Week 16: expected 22.6, likely 14.9–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–35.916
    11. Week 17: expected 20.4, likely 13.5–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–32.517

    Week 6 was 15.0 in the 34-27 win over the Giants, another solid game on a Saints team that throws. He's at 21.1 ppg with four games over 21 in six. Week 8 is New Orleans' bye. FantasyCalc's 5335 is about what Nabers costs and well under Chase; for the WR on our board with the steadiest volume after Lamb, buy.

    Why not the projection (19.4) 21 vs Sleeper's 19.4: he's at 21.1 ppg on double-digit targets most weeks.

    What changed ppg 21.5 to 21 to match his 21.1 average; replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which keeps him in Tier 5 with a bigger margin.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    19.1

    Above repl.

    +5.4

    Wks 15–17

    21.6

    Games

    10

    somickey →
44. 44WR7Malik NabersNYG · @sishaarHold21.0+3.5

    1. Week 7: expected 20.3, likely 13.4–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–32.37
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    3. Week 9: expected 19.7, likely 11.4–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.49
    4. Week 10: expected 23.3, likely 15.3–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 7–3710
    5. Week 11: expected 20.9, likely 13.8–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.311
    6. Week 12: expected 21.0, likely 13.9–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.412
    7. Week 13: expected 19.8, likely 11.5–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.613
    8. Week 14: expected 19.3, likely 11.2–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.914
    9. Week 15: expected 19.8, likely 11.5–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.715
    10. Week 16: expected 22.9, likely 15.1–28.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–36.416
    11. Week 17: expected 23.2, likely 15.3–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 7–3717

    Week 6 was 12 catches for 165 yards and two TDs (31.85) in the 34-27 loss to New Orleans, his third straight game over 25 (source: si.com). Jameis Winston was benched for J.J. McCarthy after two interceptions, and Nabers produced with both. Week 8 is the Giants' bye. We raise him to 21, Tier 5; the QB change is the risk. FantasyCalc's 5340 is now fair; sishaar holds.

    Why not the projection (16.2) 21 vs Sleeper's 16.2: three straight games of 25.5, 32.15 and 31.85 on heavy volume; Sleeper still weights his slow start.

    What changed Tier 7 to 5 and ppg 17.5 to 21 after a third straight 25-plus game; replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which adds to it.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    19.1

    Above repl.

    +5.4

    Wks 15–17

    22.0

    Games

    10

    commish →
45. 45WR8Zay FlowersBAL · @nikashHold21.0–

    1. Week 7: expected 21.7, likely 14.3–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.47
    2. Week 8: expected 20.4, likely 13.4–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–32.48
    3. Week 9: expected 21.0, likely 13.8–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.39
    4. Week 10: expected 21.1, likely 13.9–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.510
    5. Week 11: expected 20.0, likely 13.2–24.6, 10th–90th percentile 6–31.911
    6. Week 12: expected 21.1, likely 13.9–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.512
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: expected 21.6, likely 14.2–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.314
    9. Week 15: expected 21.2, likely 14–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–33.815
    10. Week 16: expected 20.2, likely 13.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–32.216
    11. Week 17: expected 21.6, likely 14.3–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–34.417

    Week 6 was 13.9, his second straight game under 17 since Lamar Jackson's ankle put Tyler Huntley under center. He's at 21.1 ppg on a steady target share, but Huntley has taken the deep balls out of his game. Week 13 is Baltimore's bye. FantasyCalc's 4753 is fair; nikash holds until Lamar is back.

    What changed Replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which raises his value, but he stays Tier 5 at the same 21 ppg; others passing him may move his position rank.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    19.1

    Above repl.

    +5.4

    Wks 15–17

    21.0

    Games

    10

    The Naughty Betas →
46. 46RB11Ashton JeantyLV · @tsinghSell18.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 17.7, likely 9.3–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–32.47
    2. Week 8: expected 18.7, likely 9.8–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–34.38
    3. Week 9: expected 17.6, likely 9.3–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–32.49
    4. Week 10: expected 17.2, likely 9.1–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–31.710
    5. Week 11: expected 18.3, likely 9.6–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–33.611
    6. Week 12: expected 18.4, likely 9.7–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 6–33.812
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: expected 19.3, likely 10.2–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–35.514
    9. Week 15: expected 18.4, likely 9.7–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 6–33.815
    10. Week 16: expected 19.7, likely 10.3–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–36.216
    11. Week 17: expected 19.7, likely 10.3–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–36.217

    Ten carries for 22 yards and a TD plus four catches for 36 in the loss to Buffalo, his first rushing TD of the season (source: nbcsports.com). That's 18 here and 20.2 a game, but he's at 3.3 yards a carry or worse and Mike Washington took 10 touches to his 14. The receiving work keeps a floor; the Raiders' losing scripts cap the carries. We stay at 18.5; at 4,332 he's priced above Hubbard and Javonte for less, so sell.

    Why not the projection (19.4) 18.5, under Sleeper's 19.4: poor efficiency and blowout losses cap his carries, and Mike Washington is taking a share.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    16.8

    Above repl.

    +5.1

    Wks 15–17

    19.3

    Games

    10

    Tua deez nuts →
47. 47WR9Justin JeffersonMIN · @PredjsSell18.0–

    1. Week 7: expected 19.2, likely 11.1–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.67
    2. Week 8: expected 19.1, likely 11.1–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.58
    3. Week 9: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.19
    4. Week 10: expected 18.1, likely 10.5–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.710
    5. Week 11: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–2911
    6. Week 12: expected 17.3, likely 10–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.412
    7. Week 13: expected 16.9, likely 9.8–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.613
    8. Week 14: expected 17.4, likely 10.1–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.614
    9. Week 15: expected 19.1, likely 11.1–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.415
    10. Week 16: expected 19.3, likely 11.2–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.916
    11. Week 17: expected 17.8, likely 10.4–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.317

    Minnesota had its bye in Week 6, so he's still at 16.6 ppg in four games (32.6, 9.4, 6.05, 18.25) after the ankle. The Vikings win on the run game and Murray's passing volume is thin. At 18 he's about 4 a week above a free agent, Tier 5. FantasyCalc's 5642 is still WR1 money for a WR13-level producer; Predjs should sell.

    Why not the projection (19.9) 18 vs Sleeper's 19.9: Minnesota's low passing volume and his 16.6 ppg don't support Sleeper's number.

    What changed Tier 7 to 5: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which is worth two tiers at his level; his ppg call is unchanged.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    18.0

    Above repl.

    +4.3

    Wks 15–17

    18.7

    Games

    11

    Coked up Dakshots →
48. 48RB12Ollie GordonMIA · @vtandaleBuy16.0–

    1. Week 7: expected 16.3, likely 10.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–27.27
    2. Week 8: expected 15.8, likely 9.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–26.38
    3. Week 9: expected 17.0, likely 10.6–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–28.59
    4. Week 10: expected 16.3, likely 10.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–27.210
    5. Week 11: expected 15.4, likely 9.6–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–25.811
    6. Week 12: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–2612
    7. Week 13: expected 15.5, likely 9.6–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–25.813
    8. Week 14: expected 16.9, likely 10.5–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–28.314
    9. Week 15: expected 15.9, likely 9.8–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–26.515
    10. Week 16: expected 15.9, likely 9.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–26.616
    11. Week 17: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–26.117

    Bye in Week 6 after three straight games between 18.5 and 20.25 since De'Von Achane's season-ending ACL tear. Sleeper still lists him questionable, but he left and returned in Week 5 (source: rotowire.com) and we found no report that he'll miss Week 7 against the Jets. He's the lead back in a bad offense, and with the bye done he's projected every remaining week, which lifts him into Tier 5. At 947 he's priced as a free agent for a starter's role; buy.

    What changed Up from Tier 6 to 5 with the same 16 ppg: the Week 6 bye is behind him, so he's projected all 11 remaining weeks.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    16.0

    Above repl.

    +4.3

    Wks 15–17

    15.8

    Games

    11

    96 bulls →
49. 49QB26Cam WardTEN · @tsinghHold14.0-2.0

    1. Week 7: expected 12.8, likely 7.7–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–21.67
    2. Week 8: expected 13.5, likely 8.1–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–22.88
    3. Week 9: bye or not projected9
    4. Week 10: expected 12.1, likely 7.3–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 4–20.410
    5. Week 11: expected 15.2, likely 9.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.811
    6. Week 12: expected 12.1, likely 7.2–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 4–20.412
    7. Week 13: expected 16.2, likely 9.7–21.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.413
    8. Week 14: expected 16.2, likely 9.7–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.314
    9. Week 15: expected 13.7, likely 8.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–23.215
    10. Week 16: expected 14.9, likely 8.9–20, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.216
    11. Week 17: expected 13.3, likely 8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–22.417

    Week 6 was 11 of 22 for 102 yards, a TD and a pick (9.25 in our scoring), his second straight game under 10. He's 14.5 ppg on a Tennessee offense that can't sustain drives, and the rushing barely shows up. I cut him from 16 to 14, far under Sleeper's 18.4, which drops him to tier 5. Week 9 bye. At 303 he's a SUPER_FLEX body for tsingh, not a starter.

    Why not the projection (18.4) 14 per game, far under Sleeper's 18.4: 14.5 ppg and two straight games under 10.

    What changed Tier 4 to 5 and ppg 16 to 14 after a second straight single-digit game.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    12.7

    Above repl.

    +4.3

    Wks 15–17

    14.0

    Games

    10

    Tua deez nuts →
50. 50QB27Daniel JonesIND · @arireddyHold14.0+1.5

    1. Week 7: expected 11.5, likely 6.9–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–19.47
    2. Week 8: expected 12.6, likely 7.6–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–21.38
    3. Week 9: expected 16.0, likely 9.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–279
    4. Week 10: expected 16.8, likely 10.1–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.410
    5. Week 11: expected 14.0, likely 8.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.611
    6. Week 12: expected 14.6, likely 8.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.712
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: expected 12.6, likely 7.6–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–21.414
    9. Week 15: expected 14.6, likely 8.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.715
    10. Week 16: expected 14.1, likely 8.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–23.816
    11. Week 17: expected 13.0, likely 7.8–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–2217

    Week 6 was 22 of 42 for 269 yards, a TD and two picks plus three carries for 30 yards (18.8 in our scoring), his best game of the season. He's 13.2 ppg, and the turnovers are back after one clean week, but the volume is real. I raise him from 12.5 to 14, still under Sleeper's 15.4. Week 13 bye. At 209 there's nothing to sell; arireddy holds him as a bye fill-in.

    Why not the projection (15.4) 14 per game, under Sleeper's 15.4: 13.2 ppg with too many turnovers.

    What changed ppg up from 12.5 to 14 after his best game; lean moves from sell to hold because there's nothing to sell at 209.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    12.7

    Above repl.

    +4.3

    Wks 15–17

    13.9

    Games

    10

    dogwater →
51. 51QB28Justin HerbertLAC · @SettytsSell14.0-1.0

    1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    2. Week 8: expected 12.2, likely 7.3–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 4–20.68
    3. Week 9: expected 14.1, likely 8.4–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.89
    4. Week 10: expected 13.7, likely 8.2–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–23.110
    5. Week 11: expected 14.4, likely 8.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.411
    6. Week 12: expected 13.3, likely 8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–22.512
    7. Week 13: expected 14.2, likely 8.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–2413
    8. Week 14: expected 15.6, likely 9.4–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.414
    9. Week 15: expected 13.1, likely 7.9–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–22.215
    10. Week 16: expected 16.5, likely 9.9–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.916
    11. Week 17: expected 12.8, likely 7.7–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–21.617

    Week 6 was 22 of 37 for 204 yards, no TDs and a pick with five carries for 26 yards (13.15 in our scoring). He's 12.7 ppg, hasn't topped 17.6 all season, and the Chargers' line is still banged up. I cut him from 15 to 14, far under Sleeper's 18.2, which drops him to tier 5. Week 7 bye. FantasyCalc's 2,559 still pays for the name; Settyts should sell to a believer.

    Why not the projection (18.2) 14 per game, far under Sleeper's 18.2: 12.7 ppg through six games.

    What changed Tier 4 to 5 and ppg 15 to 14 after another TD-less game.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    12.7

    Above repl.

    +4.3

    Wks 15–17

    14.1

    Games

    10

    WALLAHI on the Beat →
52. 52RB13Bhayshul TutenJAX · @PredjsBuy17.5+1.0

    1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    2. Week 8: expected 18.1, likely 12.6–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–27.78
    3. Week 9: expected 16.4, likely 11.4–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–25.29
    4. Week 10: expected 17.4, likely 12.1–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–26.710
    5. Week 11: expected 18.3, likely 12.7–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–28.111
    6. Week 12: expected 17.5, likely 12.2–21, 10th–90th percentile 10–26.912
    7. Week 13: expected 18.5, likely 12.9–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–28.413
    8. Week 14: expected 16.6, likely 11.5–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–25.514
    9. Week 15: expected 16.4, likely 11.4–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–25.315
    10. Week 16: expected 18.1, likely 12.6–21.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–27.916
    11. Week 17: expected 17.4, likely 12.1–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–26.717

    27.65 here in the London win over Houston, his best game of the season, after five straight games between 13.6 and 20.3; he's at 18.1 a game. He's the Jaguars' lead back on 20-carry volume, which our carry and first-down scoring rewards, though he still loses some passing downs. We go up a point to 17.5; his Week 7 bye is next. At 2,743 he's priced as a backup for a starter's role; buy.

    Why not the projection (16.8) 17.5, above Sleeper's 16.8: he's at 18.1 a game here on a steady lead-back workload.

    What changed Up a point to 17.5 after a season-best 27.65 in Week 6.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    15.9

    Above repl.

    +4.2

    Wks 15–17

    17.3

    Games

    10

    Coked up Dakshots →
53. 53RB14Jaylen WarrenPIT · @ShukyHold17.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 18.8, likely 11.7–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 8.7–31.57
    2. Week 8: expected 17.1, likely 10.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–28.68
    3. Week 9: bye or not projected9
    4. Week 10: expected 19.1, likely 11.8–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–31.810
    5. Week 11: expected 16.2, likely 10.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–27.111
    6. Week 12: expected 17.2, likely 10.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–28.712
    7. Week 13: expected 17.0, likely 10.6–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–28.513
    8. Week 14: expected 16.4, likely 10.2–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.6–27.414
    9. Week 15: expected 16.9, likely 10.4–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.8–28.115
    10. Week 16: expected 18.8, likely 11.6–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 8.6–31.316
    11. Week 17: expected 17.9, likely 11.1–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–29.917

    Fourteen carries for 50 yards and two catches for 28 in the win over Tampa Bay, with Rico Dowdle back from the toe and his snap share down from 92% to 75% (source: draftsharks.com). That's 13 here; he still took every third-down snap and most of the goal-line work, so he's the lead back, just not the only one. We stay at 17.5, under his 20.6 pace, since Week 5's 42.65 came on two long TDs. At 2,904 he's priced about right; hold.

    Why not the projection (18.9) 17.5, under Sleeper's 18.9: Dowdle's return cuts his snap share to about 75%.

    What changed Same 17.5 ppg; slips from RB12 to RB13 as Ollie Gordon, with his bye done, passes him.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    15.9

    Above repl.

    +4.2

    Wks 15–17

    17.9

    Games

    10

    To infinity and bijan →
54. 54QB29Baker MayfieldTB · @somickeyHold16.0-0.5

    1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    2. Week 8: expected 7.3, likely 0–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.3 (questionable)8
    3. Week 9: expected 17.2, likely 10.3–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.19
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    5. Week 11: expected 19.8, likely 11.9–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.411
    6. Week 12: expected 15.1, likely 9.1–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.512
    7. Week 13: expected 16.2, likely 9.7–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.313
    8. Week 14: expected 16.1, likely 9.6–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.114
    9. Week 15: expected 16.6, likely 10–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.115
    10. Week 16: expected 14.6, likely 8.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.716
    11. Week 17: expected 14.1, likely 8.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–23.917

    Missed a third game in Week 6 with the dislocated thumb after not practicing (source: thefantasyfootballers.com). Sleeper doesn't project him for Week 7, with Jalon Daniels starting, so I make Week 8 the coin flip. He was 14.2 ppg before the injury, so I trim him from 16.5 to 16, under Sleeper's 17.4. Week 10 bye. At 356 there's nothing to sell; somickey holds for the second half.

    Why not the projection (17.4) 16 per game, under Sleeper's 17.4: 14.2 ppg before the thumb, and a throwing-hand injury lingers.

    What changed Week 7 dropped as a coin flip (Sleeper doesn't project him) and Week 8 added; ppg trimmed from 16.5 to 16.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    12.5

    Above repl.

    +4.1

    Wks 15–17

    15.1

    Games

    8.5

    somickey →
55. 55WR10Christian WatsonGB · @skollurHold19.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 20.5, likely 11.8–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–35.77
    2. Week 8: expected 18.4, likely 8.7–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 3–34.58
    3. Week 9: expected 19.2, likely 9.1–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–35.99
    4. Week 10: expected 18.1, likely 8.6–26, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–33.910
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 18.4, likely 8.8–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 3–34.612
    7. Week 13: expected 19.8, likely 9.4–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–37.113
    8. Week 14: expected 18.9, likely 9–27.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–35.514
    9. Week 15: expected 21.7, likely 12.5–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–37.715
    10. Week 16: expected 20.2, likely 11.6–26, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–3516
    11. Week 17: expected 19.7, likely 9.4–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–36.917

    Week 6 was 11.3 in the 23-13 win over Dallas, the bust side of his range after the 35.6 in Week 5. He's at 21.8 ppg with six TDs in six games, which will regress, but he's Jordan Love's deep target. Week 11 is the bye. High volatility stays. FantasyCalc's 4485 is fair; skollur holds.

    Why not the projection (18.5) 19.5 vs Sleeper's 18.5: he's at 21.8 ppg as the Packers' deep target; we discount the TD rate.

    What changed Tier 6 to 5: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier; ppg unchanged.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    17.7

    Above repl.

    +4.0

    Wks 15–17

    20.5

    Games

    10

    JSN’s backpack →
56. 56WR11Nico CollinsHOU · @arireddyHold19.5-0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 19.1, likely 11.1–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.67
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    3. Week 9: expected 19.6, likely 11.4–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.49
    4. Week 10: expected 18.8, likely 10.9–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–31.910
    5. Week 11: expected 19.5, likely 11.3–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–33.111
    6. Week 12: expected 19.4, likely 11.2–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.912
    7. Week 13: expected 19.7, likely 11.4–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.513
    8. Week 14: expected 21.1, likely 13.9–26, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–33.514
    9. Week 15: expected 19.4, likely 11.3–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–33.115
    10. Week 16: expected 18.6, likely 10.8–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–31.616
    11. Week 17: expected 19.6, likely 11.4–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.317

    Week 6 was 3 catches on 5 targets for 74 yards (12.95) in the 34-31 win over Jacksonville in London, as Stroud spread the ball to 10 receivers (source: cbssports.com). Marvin Harrison Jr. played his first Houston game (7.3), and the Texans haven't defined his role yet. He's at 20.3 ppg in four games, and Week 8 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 4821 is fair; arireddy holds.

    What changed Tier 6 to 5 and ppg 20 to 19.5: two quiet games in a row and a new target in Harrison, but replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    17.7

    Above repl.

    +4.0

    Wks 15–17

    19.2

    Games

    10

    dogwater →
57. 57TE3Isaiah LikelyNYG · @somickeyHold24.5+1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 23.5, likely 15.1–28, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–37.27
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    3. Week 9: expected 23.4, likely 15–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–36.99
    4. Week 10: expected 26.3, likely 16.8–31.3, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–41.610
    5. Week 11: expected 24.7, likely 15.8–29.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–3911
    6. Week 12: expected 24.5, likely 15.7–29.2, 10th–90th percentile 10–38.712
    7. Week 13: expected 23.5, likely 15.1–28, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–37.213
    8. Week 14: expected 23.1, likely 14.8–27.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–36.614
    9. Week 15: expected 23.5, likely 15–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–37.115
    10. Week 16: expected 26.1, likely 16.7–31.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–41.316
    11. Week 17: expected 26.7, likely 17.1–31.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–42.217

    Six of 11 for 99 and a 24-yard fourth-quarter TD in the 34-27 loss to New Orleans, 36.4 here, even after Jameis Winston was benched for J.J. McCarthy mid-game (sources: nbcsports.com, thefantasyfootballers.com). That's 28.6 a game and 11+ targets in four of six, the Giants' clear No. 2 behind Malik Nabers. We raise him to 24.5, TE3 on the board, about 4 over replacement after the Week 8 bye. The QB change is the risk; FantasyCalc's 2,984 now prices him as a TE3, so hold rather than buy.

    Why not the projection (20.6) Above Sleeper's 20.6: 28.6 a game and double-digit targets in four of six.

    What changed Tier 4 to 5 despite ppg up 23.5 to 24.5: the TE replacement level rose 4.2 points (Hockenson dropped). Lean buy to hold now that FantasyCalc has caught up at 2,984.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    22.3

    Above repl.

    +3.8

    Wks 15–17

    25.4

    Games

    10

    somickey →
58. 58RB15Chase BrownCIN · @vtandaleSell15.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 14.9, likely 9.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–24.87
    2. Week 8: expected 16.0, likely 9.9–20, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–26.78
    3. Week 9: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–259
    4. Week 10: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–25.110
    5. Week 11: expected 15.9, likely 9.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–26.511
    6. Week 12: expected 16.3, likely 10.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.5–27.312
    7. Week 13: expected 15.0, likely 9.3–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–25.113
    8. Week 14: expected 14.7, likely 9.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–24.514
    9. Week 15: expected 16.5, likely 10.2–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.6–27.615
    10. Week 16: expected 16.2, likely 10–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–2716
    11. Week 17: expected 14.9, likely 9.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–24.917

    Bye in Week 6 after 7.4 against Miami, when Samaje Perine out-carried him and ran better (source: draftsharks.com). He's at 15.3 a game here, under 4 yards a carry for weeks, and the split backfield caps him; route volume is what keeps a floor. We stay at 15.5, far under Sleeper's 19.1. With the bye behind him he's projected every week, which lifts him into Tier 5, but at 3,640 he's still priced as a starter; sell.

    Why not the projection (19.1) 15.5, well under Sleeper's 19.1: he's at 15.3 a game here in a split with Perine.

    What changed Up a tier to 5 with the same 15.5 ppg: the Week 6 bye is behind him, so he's projected all 11 remaining weeks.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    15.5

    Above repl.

    +3.8

    Wks 15–17

    15.9

    Games

    11

    96 bulls →
59. 59RB16D'Andre SwiftCHI · @tsinghHold17.0+1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 17.3, likely 10.7–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 8–28.97
    2. Week 8: expected 15.7, likely 9.7–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–26.28
    3. Week 9: expected 16.2, likely 10–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–279
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    5. Week 11: expected 17.6, likely 10.9–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–29.511
    6. Week 12: expected 18.1, likely 11.2–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 8.3–30.212
    7. Week 13: expected 16.0, likely 9.9–20, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–26.713
    8. Week 14: expected 17.6, likely 10.9–22, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–29.414
    9. Week 15: expected 16.5, likely 10.2–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 7.6–27.615
    10. Week 16: expected 17.2, likely 10.6–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–28.716
    11. Week 17: expected 18.3, likely 11.3–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.4–30.517

    26.1 here in Week 6 with Kyle Monangai out again with thumb and toe injuries (source: nbcsports.com). That's two solo weeks at 19.3 and 26.1, against 14.65 or less in the three games Monangai played. Monangai is week-to-week, so Swift could have another solo week or two, but he's a committee back once Monangai is healthy. We go up a point to 17, still under Sleeper's 18.3; at 3,204 he's priced fairly now, so sell becomes hold.

    Why not the projection (18.3) 17, under Sleeper's 18.3: Monangai splits the work when healthy.

    What changed Up a point to 17 and from Tier 6 to 5 after 26.1 with Monangai out; lean moves from sell to hold.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    15.5

    Above repl.

    +3.8

    Wks 15–17

    17.3

    Games

    10

    Tua deez nuts →
60. 60TE4Sam LaPortaDET · @sishaarHold22.0–

    1. Week 7: expected 22.5, likely 14.4–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–35.57
    2. Week 8: expected 20.0, likely 12.8–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–31.68
    3. Week 9: expected 24.3, likely 15.5–28.9, 10th–90th percentile 10–38.49
    4. Week 10: expected 21.6, likely 13.8–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 8.9–34.210
    5. Week 11: expected 22.6, likely 14.5–26.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–35.811
    6. Week 12: expected 22.2, likely 14.2–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–35.112
    7. Week 13: expected 21.6, likely 13.8–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–34.113
    8. Week 14: expected 23.2, likely 14.8–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–36.714
    9. Week 15: expected 20.1, likely 12.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–31.715
    10. Week 16: expected 22.0, likely 14.1–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 9–34.816
    11. Week 17: expected 22.3, likely 14.2–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–35.217

    Detroit was on bye in Week 6; he's at 24.1 a game over five, with 36.4 and 27.55 in his last two and a fourth-down conversion role that pays here. No bye left, so he plays all 11 remaining weeks, which matters more now that every bye costs against an 18.5 free agent. We stay at 22, about 3.5 a week over replacement and TE4 on the board. FantasyCalc's 2,600 is fair; hold.

    Why not the projection (20.7) Above Sleeper's 20.7: 24.1 a game through five with a steady red-zone and fourth-down role.

    What changed Tier 4 to 5 with ppg unchanged at 22: the TE replacement level rose from 14.3 to 18.5 after Hockenson was dropped, about 4 points a week off his value.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    22.0

    Above repl.

    +3.5

    Wks 15–17

    21.5

    Games

    11

    commish →
61. 61WR12Tetairoa McMillanCAR · @ShukySell17.0–

    1. Week 7: expected 17.5, likely 10.1–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.77
    2. Week 8: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–23, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–298
    3. Week 9: expected 15.6, likely 9.1–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.59
    4. Week 10: expected 17.3, likely 10–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.510
    5. Week 11: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.111
    6. Week 12: expected 17.9, likely 10.4–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.512
    7. Week 13: expected 15.5, likely 9–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.413
    8. Week 14: expected 17.3, likely 10–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.414
    9. Week 15: expected 17.8, likely 10.3–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.315
    10. Week 16: expected 17.5, likely 10.2–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.816
    11. Week 17: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.317

    Week 6 was 16.65 in the 25-14 win at Philadelphia, his first game with Jalen Coker back, and Coker led the team with 13 targets (source: nbcsports.com). He's at 19.1 ppg, but 46.65 of that came without Coker; his other four games average 12.2. Carolina has no bye left. FantasyCalc's 3336 still pays for the 46-point game; Shuky should sell.

    Why not the projection (16.7) 17 vs Sleeper's 16.7: within range, kept at last week's call.

    What changed Tier 6 to 5: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier; ppg unchanged.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    17.0

    Above repl.

    +3.3

    Wks 15–17

    17.1

    Games

    11

    To infinity and bijan →
62. 62RB17Bucky IrvingTB · @ShukyHold16.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 17.8, likely 9.3–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–32.67
    2. Week 8: expected 15.6, likely 8.2–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–28.78
    3. Week 9: expected 17.5, likely 9.2–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–32.19
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    5. Week 11: expected 17.6, likely 9.2–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–32.311
    6. Week 12: expected 17.5, likely 9.2–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–32.112
    7. Week 13: expected 16.3, likely 8.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–3013
    8. Week 14: expected 15.3, likely 8–20, 10th–90th percentile 5–28.114
    9. Week 15: expected 17.0, likely 8.9–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–31.215
    10. Week 16: expected 15.5, likely 8.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–28.516
    11. Week 17: expected 15.0, likely 7.9–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–27.517

    10.15 here in the loss in Pittsburgh, back to the low teens after Week 5's 36.15, and he's at 17.2 a game with two other games near 10. Todd Bowles splits the backfield work, so his range is the widest of the Tier 5 backs, which is why he's marked high-volatility. We stay at 16.5, under Sleeper's 18.3. At 2,395 he's priced about right; hold.

    Why not the projection (18.3) 16.5, under Sleeper's 18.3: a three-way backfield split gives him three games near 10 in six.

    What changed Same 16.5 ppg; slips from RB14 to RB17 as Gordon, Swift and Chase Brown pass him.

    Tier

    5

    Per week

    15.0

    Above repl.

    +3.3

    Wks 15–17

    15.8

    Games

    10

    To infinity and bijan →
63. 63WR13Jalen CokerCAR · @PredjsBuy16.0new

    1. Week 7: expected 16.3, likely 9.5–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.87
    2. Week 8: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.38
    3. Week 9: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.49
    4. Week 10: expected 16.3, likely 9.5–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.810
    5. Week 11: expected 16.2, likely 9.4–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.611
    6. Week 12: expected 16.8, likely 9.8–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.612
    7. Week 13: expected 14.9, likely 8.6–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.313
    8. Week 14: expected 16.3, likely 9.5–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.714
    9. Week 15: expected 16.7, likely 9.7–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.515
    10. Week 16: expected 16.5, likely 9.6–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–2816
    11. Week 17: expected 15.4, likely 8.9–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.117

    New to the board. He returned from the quad injury and led Carolina with 6 catches on 13 targets for 97 yards (15.25) on 75% of the snaps in the 25-14 win at Philadelphia (source: nbcsports.com). He's at 18.8 ppg in four games and now splits the No. 1 role with McMillan. FantasyCalc's 1959 is far below McMillan's 3336 for a similar role; buy from Predjs.

    Why not the projection (15.3) 16 vs Sleeper's 15.3: he led Carolina in targets in his return and is at 18.8 ppg.

    What changed New to the board after returning from the quad injury and leading Carolina in Week 6 targets.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    16.0

    Above repl.

    +2.3

    Wks 15–17

    16.2

    Games

    11

    Coked up Dakshots →
64. 64WR14Tee HigginsCIN · @vtandaleHold16.0–

    1. Week 7: expected 16.5, likely 9.6–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–287
    2. Week 8: expected 16.9, likely 9.8–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.78
    3. Week 9: expected 15.6, likely 9–21, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.59
    4. Week 10: expected 16.2, likely 9.4–21.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.510
    5. Week 11: expected 17.4, likely 10.1–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.611
    6. Week 12: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.212
    7. Week 13: expected 15.4, likely 8.9–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.113
    8. Week 14: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.514
    9. Week 15: expected 15.1, likely 8.8–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.715
    10. Week 16: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.216
    11. Week 17: expected 15.9, likely 9.2–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–2717

    Cincinnati had its bye in Week 6, a needed rest for the adductor that limited him to 4.55 in Week 5. He's at 16.9 ppg as the No. 2 behind Chase, with a Chase setback as the upside. No bye left. FantasyCalc's 2739 is fair; vtandale holds.

    Why not the projection (16.5) 16 vs Sleeper's 16.5: within range; the No. 2 role behind Chase and the adductor keep us a bit under.

    What changed Tier 7 to 6: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier; ppg unchanged.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    16.0

    Above repl.

    +2.3

    Wks 15–17

    15.7

    Games

    11

    96 bulls →
65. 65WR15Drake LondonATL · @tsinghSell17.5-1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 17.3, likely 10.1–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.57
    2. Week 8: expected 18.0, likely 10.4–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.68
    3. Week 9: expected 17.9, likely 10.4–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.49
    4. Week 10: expected 16.3, likely 9.5–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.710
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 15.8, likely 9.1–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.812
    7. Week 13: expected 18.6, likely 10.8–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–31.513
    8. Week 14: expected 16.7, likely 9.7–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.314
    9. Week 15: expected 18.9, likely 11–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.215
    10. Week 16: expected 17.9, likely 10.4–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.516
    11. Week 17: expected 17.4, likely 10.1–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.517

    Week 6 was 13.15, and he's at 16.7 ppg; the 31.6 in Week 3 is carrying the average. Atlanta leans on the run game and he's had one game over 22 all year. Week 11 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 4579 is Watson/Collins money for a lower-tier WR; tsingh should sell.

    Why not the projection (19.4) 17.5 vs Sleeper's 19.4: he's at 16.7 ppg and Atlanta's run game caps his volume.

    What changed ppg 18.5 to 17.5 after another middling game; replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which keeps him in Tier 6. Lean moves to sell at his FantasyCalc price.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    15.9

    Above repl.

    +2.2

    Wks 15–17

    18.1

    Games

    10

    Tua deez nuts →
66. 66WR16Garrett WilsonNYJ · @vtandaleHold17.5-0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 18.5, likely 10.7–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–31.57
    2. Week 8: expected 17.8, likely 10.3–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.38
    3. Week 9: expected 16.5, likely 9.6–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–289
    4. Week 10: expected 16.8, likely 9.7–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.610
    5. Week 11: expected 17.7, likely 10.3–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–30.111
    6. Week 12: expected 19.7, likely 11.4–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.512
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: expected 15.9, likely 9.2–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.114
    9. Week 15: expected 18.9, likely 11–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–32.215
    10. Week 16: expected 17.0, likely 9.9–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.916
    11. Week 17: expected 15.8, likely 9.2–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.917

    Week 6 was 9.35 in the 26-19 loss to New England, the low side of a log that swings between 6.1 and 29.2. He's at 17.2 ppg as the Jets' only real target in a low-volume offense. Week 13 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 3901 is about right; vtandale holds.

    What changed Tier 7 to 6 and ppg 18 to 17.5: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier; the trim matches his 17.2 average.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    15.9

    Above repl.

    +2.2

    Wks 15–17

    17.2

    Games

    10

    96 bulls →
67. 67WR17Matthew GoldenGB · @somickeyBuy17.5+1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 19.3, likely 11.2–26, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.87
    2. Week 8: expected 16.3, likely 9.4–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.78
    3. Week 9: expected 17.0, likely 9.9–23, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–299
    4. Week 10: expected 15.8, likely 9.1–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.810
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 16.2, likely 9.4–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.512
    7. Week 13: expected 17.7, likely 10.3–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–3013
    8. Week 14: expected 16.8, likely 9.7–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.614
    9. Week 15: expected 19.8, likely 11.5–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.715
    10. Week 16: expected 18.2, likely 10.5–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.916
    11. Week 17: expected 17.6, likely 10.2–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–3017

    Week 6 was 24.95 in the 23-13 win over Dallas, his second straight game near 24 and fourth over 17 in six. He's at 18.8 ppg as Green Bay's steadier receiver next to Watson's boom-bust. Week 11 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 2761 is cheap for that; buy from somickey.

    Why not the projection (16.9) 17.5 vs Sleeper's 16.9: he's at 18.8 ppg with 23.95 and 24.95 the last two weeks.

    What changed Tier 7 to 6 and ppg 16.5 to 17.5 after another 24-point game; replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which adds to the lift.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    15.9

    Above repl.

    +2.2

    Wks 15–17

    18.5

    Games

    10

    somickey →
68. 68WR18Parker WashingtonJAX · @ShukySell17.0-0.5

    1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    2. Week 8: expected 16.6, likely 7.9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–318
    3. Week 9: expected 16.4, likely 7.8–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–30.89
    4. Week 10: expected 17.4, likely 8.3–25, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–32.610
    5. Week 11: expected 16.7, likely 7.9–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–31.211
    6. Week 12: expected 17.3, likely 8.2–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–32.412
    7. Week 13: expected 17.0, likely 8.1–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–31.913
    8. Week 14: expected 16.6, likely 7.9–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–31.214
    9. Week 15: expected 16.6, likely 7.9–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–31.115
    10. Week 16: expected 17.7, likely 8.4–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–33.316
    11. Week 17: expected 17.8, likely 8.4–25.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–33.317

    Week 6 was 12.2 in the 34-31 loss to Houston, after the 33.5 two-TD game in Week 5. His log swings from 2.35 to 33.5 and he's at 16.5 ppg, with return yards as a floor. Week 7 is Jacksonville's bye. FantasyCalc's 3506 still pays for the boom weeks; Shuky should sell.

    Why not the projection (19.6) 17 vs Sleeper's 19.6: Brian Thomas Jr. is still the No. 1, and Washington's 16.5 ppg doesn't support 19.6.

    What changed Tier 7 to 6 and ppg 17.5 to 17: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier even after the small cut.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    15.5

    Above repl.

    +1.8

    Wks 15–17

    17.4

    Games

    10

    To infinity and bijan →
69. 69QB30Jameis WinstonNYG · @PredjsHold14.0-3.0

    1. Week 7: expected 13.0, likely 7.8–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–21.97
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    3. Week 9: expected 12.7, likely 7.6–17, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–21.49
    4. Week 10: expected 17.0, likely 10.2–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.710
    5. Week 11: expected 12.6, likely 7.5–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–21.211
    6. Week 12: expected 14.3, likely 8.6–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.112
    7. Week 13: expected 12.8, likely 7.7–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–21.713
    8. Week 14: expected 6.0, likely 0–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.4 (questionable)14
    9. Week 15: expected 6.5, likely 0–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.9 (questionable)15
    10. Week 16: expected 8.5, likely 0–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–24.6 (questionable)16
    11. Week 17: expected 8.0, likely 0–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–23.3 (questionable)17

    Week 6 against New Orleans was 14 of 26 for 152 yards, a TD and two picks (10.05 in our scoring), and he played 46 of 77 snaps while J.J. McCarthy's package grew (McCarthy threw for 243 yards on 21 attempts). Harbaugh has said not using McCarthy would be negligent (source: newsweek.com). Fewer snaps mean fewer points even if he keeps the job, so I cut him from 17 to 14 and keep Weeks 14-17 as coin flips. Week 8 bye. At 361 he's a SUPER_FLEX body for Predjs.

    Why not the projection (15.5) 14 per game, under Sleeper's 15.5: McCarthy is taking a third of the snaps.

    What changed Tier 5 to 6 and ppg 17 to 14 after a two-pick game in which McCarthy took a big share of the snaps.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    10.1

    Above repl.

    +1.7

    Wks 15–17

    7.7

    Games

    8

    Coked up Dakshots →
70. 70QB31Tanner McKeePHI · @somickeyHold15.5new

    1. Week 7: expected 16.4, likely 9.8–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.77
    2. Week 8: expected 17.8, likely 10.7–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.18
    3. Week 9: expected 15.3, likely 9.2–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.89
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    5. Week 11: expected 14.6, likely 8.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.611
    6. Week 12: expected 8.4, likely 0–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–24.4 (questionable)12
    7. Week 13: expected 9.1, likely 0–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–26.5 (questionable)13
    8. Week 14: expected 7.5, likely 0–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.9 (questionable)14
    9. Week 15: expected 6.4, likely 0–13, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.6 (questionable)15
    10. Week 16: expected 7.3, likely 0–15, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.4 (questionable)16
    11. Week 17: expected 6.8, likely 0–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.8 (questionable)17

    New to the board: started Week 6 for Philadelphia after Jalen Hurts was ruled out with a blood clot in his calf, and went 26 of 45 for 215 yards and a TD (16.3 in our scoring) (source: thefantasyfootballers.com). There's no timetable for Hurts (source: click2houston.com), so McKee should start at least through Week 11 (Week 10 bye), and I make Weeks 12-17 coin flips in case Hurts returns. 45 attempts keep the first downs coming. At 310 he's a cheap SUPER_FLEX starter for somickey while the job lasts.

    Why not the projection (16.0) Weeks 12-17 questionable because Hurts could return from the blood clot; 15.5 per game as the starter, near Sleeper's 16.

    What changed New to the board as Philadelphia's starter while Hurts is out.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    10.0

    Above repl.

    +1.6

    Wks 15–17

    6.8

    Games

    7

    somickey →
71. 71RB18Josh JacobsGB · @skollurHold14.5+1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 13.5, likely 7.3–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–257
    2. Week 8: expected 16.2, likely 10–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 7.4–278
    3. Week 9: expected 14.4, likely 8.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–24.19
    4. Week 10: expected 13.1, likely 7.1–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.210
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 13.4, likely 7.3–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–24.912
    7. Week 13: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 7–25.313
    8. Week 14: expected 14.4, likely 8.9–18, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–2414
    9. Week 15: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 7–25.415
    10. Week 16: expected 15.6, likely 9.7–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–26.116
    11. Week 17: expected 14.0, likely 7.6–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–25.917

    The NFL is taking him off the Commissioner's Exempt List, and he's eligible to play Oct. 25 at Detroit after missing six games (source: news4jax.com). The league's conduct investigation is still open, so a suspension is still possible later, which is the risk here. Green Bay has the league's lowest rushing average without him, so the lead role is waiting, but he's had no game reps and the line is struggling; we have him at 14.5, under Sleeper's 16.5. At 2,470 he's priced fairly for a back who's suddenly playable; hold.

    Why not the projection (16.5) 14.5, under Sleeper's 16.5: no game reps this season and Green Bay's run game is last in the league.

    What changed No longer out: he's off the exempt list and eligible from Week 7 (we had him out through Week 8, questionable 9-10); up a point to 14.5 and from Tier 8 to 6.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    13.2

    Above repl.

    +1.5

    Wks 15–17

    14.9

    Games

    10

    JSN’s backpack →
72. 72WR19DeVonta SmithPHI · @SettytsHold16.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–29.17
    2. Week 8: expected 17.6, likely 10.2–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–308
    3. Week 9: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.39
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    5. Week 11: expected 16.3, likely 9.4–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.711
    6. Week 12: expected 17.6, likely 10.2–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.912
    7. Week 13: expected 17.4, likely 10.1–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.613
    8. Week 14: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.314
    9. Week 15: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.415
    10. Week 16: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.316
    11. Week 17: expected 15.4, likely 8.9–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.117

    He came back from the hamstring and scored 21.35 in the 25-14 loss to Carolina, right back to being Philadelphia's top target. He's at 18.5 ppg in four games. Week 10 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 2576 is cheap for a healthy Smith; Settyts holds.

    Why not the projection (14.1) 16.5 vs Sleeper's 14.1: he's at 18.5 ppg and back as the Eagles' No. 1.

    What changed Tier 8 to 6: he's back from the hamstring (Week 6 questionable mark cleared) and replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which puts him above replacement.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    15.0

    Above repl.

    +1.3

    Wks 15–17

    15.5

    Games

    10

    WALLAHI on the Beat →
73. 73WR20Mike EvansSF · @tsinghBuy16.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.37
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    3. Week 9: expected 17.1, likely 9.9–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–299
    4. Week 10: expected 18.1, likely 10.5–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.710
    5. Week 11: expected 15.5, likely 9–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.411
    6. Week 12: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.112
    7. Week 13: expected 17.0, likely 9.8–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.813
    8. Week 14: expected 15.8, likely 9.2–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.914
    9. Week 15: expected 17.0, likely 9.9–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.915
    10. Week 16: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.316
    11. Week 17: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.417

    tsingh got him from Predjs on Oct 19. Week 6 was 14.3 in the Monday night win over Washington, with Deebo Samuel out with the hamstring; Shanahan says Deebo will miss at least a couple of weeks (source: espn.com). He's at 16.6 ppg and gets the short targets until Deebo is back after the Week 8 bye. FantasyCalc's 2276 is cheap for a Tier 6 starter.

    Why not the projection (19.9) 16.5 vs Sleeper's 19.9: he's 33, at 16.6 ppg, in a run-first offense.

    What changed Tier 7 to 6, and now owned by tsingh after the Oct 19 trade with Predjs. Replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    15.0

    Above repl.

    +1.3

    Wks 15–17

    16.4

    Games

    10

    Tua deez nuts →
74. 74RB19Breece HallNYJ · @somickey · out Wk 7Hold17.0–

    1. Week 7: out7
    2. Week 8: expected 9.0, likely 0–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–25 (questionable)8
    3. Week 9: expected 15.9, likely 9.9–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–26.69
    4. Week 10: expected 16.8, likely 10.4–21, 10th–90th percentile 7.7–2810
    5. Week 11: expected 17.1, likely 10.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–28.511
    6. Week 12: expected 17.8, likely 11.1–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–29.812
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: expected 16.7, likely 10.4–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.7–27.914
    9. Week 15: expected 17.3, likely 10.7–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–28.815
    10. Week 16: expected 17.1, likely 10.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.9–28.516
    11. Week 17: expected 15.2, likely 9.5–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 7–25.517

    He's missed Weeks 4-6 with the quad, still hadn't returned to team drills as of Oct. 16, and remains week-to-week (source: rotowire.com). We have him out Week 7 and Week 8 as a coin flip; Sleeper projects him to play both. When healthy he's the lead back with a steady receiving role, worth about 17 here, but Braelon Allen has run well enough (21 and 16.65 the last two weeks) to keep some work. At 2,830 the injury is priced in; hold.

    Why not the projection (16.4) Out Week 7 and questionable Week 8: three straight missed games with the quad and no return to team drills as of Oct. 16.

    What changed Out Week 7 and questionable Week 8 (was questionable Week 6 only) after a third missed game; drops from Tier 5 to 6.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    13.0

    Above repl.

    +1.3

    Wks 15–17

    16.5

    Games

    8.5

    somickey →
75. 75TE5George KittleSF · @arireddySell21.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 21.3, likely 13.6–25.3, 10th–90th percentile 8.7–33.67
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    3. Week 9: expected 22.1, likely 14.2–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–359
    4. Week 10: expected 23.4, likely 15–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–3710
    5. Week 11: expected 20.3, likely 13–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.3–3211
    6. Week 12: expected 21.0, likely 13.4–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.6–33.112
    7. Week 13: expected 22.1, likely 14.1–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–34.913
    8. Week 14: expected 20.6, likely 13.2–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 8.4–32.514
    9. Week 15: expected 22.1, likely 14.1–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 9–34.915
    10. Week 16: expected 21.1, likely 13.5–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.7–33.416
    11. Week 17: expected 21.1, likely 13.5–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.6–33.317

    Five catches for 69 yards and a TD in the Monday night win over Washington while playing through illness, 24.4 here (sources: nbcsports.com, nbcsports.com). He's at 21.5 a game, and the good weeks rest on touchdowns from 5-6 targets. We stay at 21.5, under Sleeper's 24, and with a Week 8 bye that's only about 1 point a week over replacement. FantasyCalc's 3,302 is the third-highest TE price for a TE5 here; sell.

    Why not the projection (24.0) Under Sleeper's 24: 21.5 a game so far, TD-driven on a 5-6 target role.

    What changed Tier 4 to 6: same 21.5 ppg, but the TE replacement level jumped from 14.3 to 18.5 (Hockenson dropped), leaving him about 1 point a week above a free agent.

    Tier

    6

    Per week

    19.6

    Above repl.

    +1.1

    Wks 15–17

    21.4

    Games

    10

    dogwater →
76. 76WR21Rashee RiceKC · @vtandaleHold15.0–

    1. Week 7: expected 6.7, likely 0–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.3 (questionable)7
    2. Week 8: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.18
    3. Week 9: expected 15.4, likely 8.9–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.29
    4. Week 10: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.510
    5. Week 11: expected 16.5, likely 9.5–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–2811
    6. Week 12: expected 14.8, likely 8.6–20, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.212
    7. Week 13: expected 14.4, likely 8.3–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.413
    8. Week 14: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.114
    9. Week 15: expected 14.9, likely 8.7–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.415
    10. Week 16: expected 14.7, likely 8.5–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–2516
    11. Week 17: expected 15.5, likely 9–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.417

    He was ruled out of Week 6 with the hamstring after not practicing all week (source: nbcsports.com), and Reid says of Week 7 at Seattle, 'we'll have to see' (source: atozsports.com). We mark Week 7 questionable. Healthy he's about 15, at 13.6 ppg in his three full games, and Kansas City has no bye left. FantasyCalc's 1847 is fair; vtandale holds.

    Why not the projection (16.7) 15 vs Sleeper's 16.7: he's at 13.6 ppg in healthy games; Week 7 questionable for the hamstring.

    What changed Tier 8 to 7: Week 6 is past (he missed it) and Week 7 is now questionable; replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which puts a healthy 15-ppg WR about even with replacement.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    14.4

    Above repl.

    +0.7

    Wks 15–17

    15.0

    Games

    10.5

    96 bulls →
77. 77TE6Travis KelceKC · @PredjsSell19.0+0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 17.5, likely 9.6–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–337
    2. Week 8: expected 18.0, likely 9.9–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.18
    3. Week 9: expected 19.4, likely 10.7–26, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–36.79
    4. Week 10: expected 19.1, likely 10.5–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 5–36.210
    5. Week 11: expected 20.4, likely 13.1–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 8.4–32.311
    6. Week 12: expected 18.7, likely 10.3–25.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–35.412
    7. Week 13: expected 18.2, likely 10–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.313
    8. Week 14: expected 19.9, likely 11–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–37.714
    9. Week 15: expected 19.2, likely 10.6–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 5–36.315
    10. Week 16: expected 18.8, likely 10.4–25.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–35.616
    11. Week 17: expected 19.6, likely 10.8–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–3717

    Five targets for 53 yards in the 22-6 win over the Chargers, 17.55 here, while in and out of the first half with an ankle injury; Noah Gray had 53 yards too (sources: nbcsports.com, nbcsports.com). Rashee Rice being out pushed targets his way, and still he's at 19.9 a game with one 41.6 week carrying the average. No bye left, but at 19 he's barely above replacement. FantasyCalc's 1,527 still pays for the name; sell.

    Why not the projection (20.6) Under Sleeper's 20.6: ankle injury and a 19.9 average propped up by one 41.6 game.

    What changed Tier 5 to 7: ppg up 18.5 to 19 on a 17.55 Week 6, but the TE replacement level rose from 14.3 to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped, and the ankle adds risk.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    19.0

    Above repl.

    +0.5

    Wks 15–17

    19.2

    Games

    11

    Coked up Dakshots →
78. 78WR22A.J. BrownNE · @skollurSell15.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 16.1, likely 9.3–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.47
    2. Week 8: expected 17.6, likely 10.2–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.88
    3. Week 9: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.79
    4. Week 10: expected 16.7, likely 9.7–22.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.410
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 15.8, likely 9.1–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.812
    7. Week 13: expected 14.9, likely 8.6–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.313
    8. Week 14: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–19, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.914
    9. Week 15: expected 14.7, likely 8.5–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.915
    10. Week 16: expected 15.6, likely 9.1–21.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.616
    11. Week 17: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.117

    He came off IR and played 52 of 68 snaps against the Jets with a team-high 10 targets, but caught 3 for 27 with three drops (4.1) (source: 985thesportshub.com). Romeo Doubs went on IR with a shoulder injury and is out until at least Week 12 (source: espn.com), so the volume will be there. Week 11 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 3241 is a healthy-WR2 price for a player at Tier 7; sell.

    Why not the projection (15.8) 15.5 vs Sleeper's 15.8: within range; rust and the ankle keep us just under.

    What changed Tier 8 to 7: he's back from IR, so the Week 6 out mark is gone, and replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which lifts him a tier.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    14.1

    Above repl.

    +0.4

    Wks 15–17

    14.8

    Games

    10

    JSN’s backpack →
79. 79RB20Quinshon JudkinsCLE · @SettytsHold14.0–

    1. Week 7: expected 7.5, likely 0–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–20.7 (questionable)7
    2. Week 8: expected 13.2, likely 7.1–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.48
    3. Week 9: expected 14.8, likely 9.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–24.89
    4. Week 10: expected 13.4, likely 7.2–18, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.710
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 14.4, likely 9–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–24.112
    7. Week 13: expected 15.2, likely 9.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 7–25.513
    8. Week 14: expected 13.0, likely 7–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–2414
    9. Week 15: expected 14.6, likely 9.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–24.415
    10. Week 16: expected 12.5, likely 6.8–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–23.116
    11. Week 17: expected 14.3, likely 8.9–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–23.917

    He missed Week 6 against Baltimore after testing the ankle in pregame warmups, his first absence of the season (source: nbcsports.com). Sleeper lists him out but projects him for Week 7, so we have that week as a coin flip. When healthy he has nearly all of Cleveland's running-back carries, worth about 14 here, and Dylan Sampson is still on the mend. At 1,311 he's priced about right; hold until the ankle is clear.

    What changed Questionable week moves from 6 to 7 after he missed Week 6 with the ankle.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    12.1

    Above repl.

    +0.4

    Wks 15–17

    13.8

    Games

    9.5

    WALLAHI on the Beat →
80. 80RB21Rhamondre StevensonNE · @arireddyHold13.0-1.5

    1. Week 7: expected 14.1, likely 8.8–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–23.67
    2. Week 8: expected 13.8, likely 7.5–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–25.68
    3. Week 9: expected 13.2, likely 7.2–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.59
    4. Week 10: expected 14.1, likely 8.7–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–23.510
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 13.1, likely 7.1–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.212
    7. Week 13: expected 12.8, likely 6.9–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–23.713
    8. Week 14: expected 11.7, likely 6.3–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–21.714
    9. Week 15: expected 12.2, likely 6.6–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–22.615
    10. Week 16: expected 12.8, likely 6.9–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–23.616
    11. Week 17: expected 12.6, likely 6.8–17, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–23.317

    Fourteen carries for 36 yards and no targets in the loss to the Jets; TreVeyon Henderson was back and Corey Kiner took 11 carries late (sources: nbcsports.com; rotowire.com). That's 6.3 here after two weeks near 20. He still led the backfield with 60% of snaps, and he keeps third downs and pass protection, but the work now splits three ways. We cut 1.5 to 13; at 1,459 he's fairly priced; hold.

    Why not the projection (12.1) 13, above Sleeper's 12.1: he still leads New England's backfield with 60% of snaps.

    What changed Down 1.5 to 13 and from Tier 6 to 7: 6.3 in Week 6 with Henderson back and Kiner taking late carries.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    11.9

    Above repl.

    +0.2

    Wks 15–17

    12.5

    Games

    10

    dogwater →
81. 81K1Spencer ShraderIND · @skollurHold11.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 10.7, likely 5.4–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–20.97
    2. Week 8: expected 11.3, likely 5.8–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.18
    3. Week 9: expected 11.3, likely 5.8–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.19
    4. Week 10: expected 12.4, likely 6.3–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–24.310
    5. Week 11: expected 11.3, likely 5.8–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.111
    6. Week 12: expected 11.3, likely 5.8–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.112
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: expected 11.7, likely 6–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–2314
    9. Week 15: expected 11.8, likely 6–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 3–23.215
    10. Week 16: expected 12.7, likely 6.5–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–24.816
    11. Week 17: expected 10.8, likely 5.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.217

    Nine points in Week 6 after 28 in Week 5; 17.3 a game is the best of any kicker, built on 50+ yard bonuses. We stay at 11.5, but the K replacement level rose to 10.3, so with a Week 13 bye he's only at replacement now. Still the best kicker on the board.

    Why not the projection (10.8) Above Sleeper's 10.8: long-range bonuses have been steady all season.

    What changed Tier 6 to 7 with ppg unchanged: the K replacement level rose from 9.3 to 10.3.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    10.5

    Above repl.

    +0.2

    Wks 15–17

    11.8

    Games

    10

    JSN’s backpack →
82. 82TE7Tyler WarrenIND · @nikashSell21.0–

    1. Week 7: expected 9.2, likely 0–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–28.2 (questionable)7
    2. Week 8: expected 21.0, likely 13.4–25, 10th–90th percentile 8.6–33.18
    3. Week 9: expected 22.4, likely 14.4–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–35.49
    4. Week 10: expected 23.2, likely 14.8–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–36.610
    5. Week 11: expected 20.8, likely 13.3–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.5–32.911
    6. Week 12: expected 21.0, likely 13.4–25, 10th–90th percentile 8.6–33.112
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: expected 19.9, likely 10.9–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–37.614
    9. Week 15: expected 22.2, likely 14.2–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–35.115
    10. Week 16: expected 21.4, likely 13.7–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–33.816
    11. Week 17: expected 20.0, likely 12.8–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–31.717

    Inactive for Week 6 against Tennessee after hurting his groin in Friday's practice, his first career missed game and a recurrence of the August groin injury; NBC calls it not great news for Week 7 (source: nbcsports.com). When healthy he's at 22.7 a game on 30 catches in five, so the role is safe and we keep 21. We list Week 7 questionable, and with a Week 13 bye that puts him right at replacement. FantasyCalc's 2,448 is TE-starter money for a hurt player we have at TE7; sell once he's back on the field.

    What changed Tier 4 to 7: groin injury cost him Week 6 and makes Week 7 questionable, and the TE replacement level jumped from 14.3 to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    18.3

    Above repl.

    -0.2

    Wks 15–17

    21.2

    Games

    9.5

    The Naughty Betas →
83. 83RB22Jeremiyah LoveARI · @SettytsSell12.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 4.9, likely 0–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–15 (questionable)7
    2. Week 8: expected 10.8, likely 5.8–14.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–19.98
    3. Week 9: expected 12.0, likely 6.5–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 3–22.19
    4. Week 10: expected 12.5, likely 6.8–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–23.110
    5. Week 11: expected 12.6, likely 6.8–17, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–23.211
    6. Week 12: expected 13.6, likely 7.3–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.4–25.212
    7. Week 13: expected 12.4, likely 6.7–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–22.913
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected14
    9. Week 15: expected 13.3, likely 7.2–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.515
    10. Week 16: expected 14.1, likely 8.7–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–23.516
    11. Week 17: expected 14.3, likely 8.9–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–23.917

    He missed Week 6 against the Rams with the ankle after sitting out practice all week; Mike LaFleur said he wasn't improving but that IR hasn't been discussed (source: nbcsports.com). We have Week 7 against Denver as a coin flip. He's been under 10 in three of five games with Tyler Allgeier taking passing downs, worth about 12.5 here when healthy. At 2,311 the market still pays for the Week 3 breakout; sell.

    Why not the projection (13.3) 12.5, under Sleeper's 13.3: three of five games under 10, with Allgeier on passing downs; Week 7 a coin flip.

    What changed Now questionable for Week 7 after missing Week 6 with the ankle; ppg and tier unchanged.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    11.0

    Above repl.

    -0.7

    Wks 15–17

    13.9

    Games

    9.5

    WALLAHI on the Beat →
84. 84K2Ka'imi FairbairnHOU · @tsinghHold10.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 11.1, likely 5.7–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–21.77
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    3. Week 9: expected 10.5, likely 5.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.59
    4. Week 10: expected 10.1, likely 5.2–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–19.910
    5. Week 11: expected 10.5, likely 5.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.511
    6. Week 12: expected 10.5, likely 5.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.512
    7. Week 13: expected 10.5, likely 5.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.513
    8. Week 14: expected 11.0, likely 5.6–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–21.614
    9. Week 15: expected 11.3, likely 5.7–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.115
    10. Week 16: expected 10.5, likely 5.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.516
    11. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 4.9–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.717

    Eleven points in Week 6, including the walk-off 49-yarder in the 34-31 London win over Jacksonville (source: thefantasyfootballers.com). 13.0 a game for the season. We stay at 10.5, about replacement once the Week 8 bye is counted.

    Why not the projection (9.7) Above Sleeper's 9.7: Houston keeps reaching field-goal range, 13.0 a game.

    What changed Tier 6 to 7 with ppg unchanged: the K replacement level rose from 9.3 to 10.3.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    9.6

    Above repl.

    -0.7

    Wks 15–17

    10.4

    Games

    10

    Tua deez nuts →
85. 85RB23Woody MarksHOU · not rostered nowHold12.0new

    1. Week 7: expected 14.7, likely 9.1–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.8–24.67
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
    3. Week 9: expected 12.1, likely 6.5–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 3–22.49
    4. Week 10: expected 11.6, likely 6.3–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–21.510
    5. Week 11: expected 12.7, likely 6.8–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–23.511
    6. Week 12: expected 11.4, likely 6.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–21.112
    7. Week 13: expected 11.4, likely 6.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–21.213
    8. Week 14: expected 12.0, likely 6.5–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 3–22.314
    9. Week 15: expected 11.1, likely 6–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.615
    10. Week 16: expected 11.0, likely 5.9–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–20.316
    11. Week 17: expected 12.1, likely 6.5–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 3–22.417

    12.8 here in the London game with David Montgomery out, and he's at 12.3 a game with every game between 9.1 and 15.8. He's been the lead back and the goal-line back since Montgomery's groin injury (source: thefantasyfootballers.com), and Montgomery has been weak when he plays. Sleeper projects a smaller role once Montgomery returns; we're a bit above at 12, around replacement with the Week 8 bye. At 818 he's cheap for a steady floor; hold.

    Why not the projection (11.1) 12, above Sleeper's 11.1: he's at 12.3 a game here and has led Houston's backfield since Week 5.

    What changed New to the board: Houston's lead back while Montgomery is out, at 12.3 a game.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    10.9

    Above repl.

    -0.8

    Wks 15–17

    11.4

    Games

    10

    somickey →
86. 86RB24Saquon BarkleyPHI · @nikashSell12.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 6.6, likely 0–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–20 (questionable)7
    2. Week 8: expected 13.9, likely 7.5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.5–25.88
    3. Week 9: expected 13.3, likely 7.2–18, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.69
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    5. Week 11: expected 11.8, likely 6.4–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–21.811
    6. Week 12: expected 13.2, likely 7.1–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.312
    7. Week 13: expected 12.5, likely 6.7–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–23.113
    8. Week 14: expected 13.0, likely 7–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.3–24.114
    9. Week 15: expected 11.1, likely 6–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.615
    10. Week 16: expected 11.9, likely 6.4–16, 10th–90th percentile 3–21.916
    11. Week 17: expected 11.4, likely 6.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–21.117

    He missed Week 6 against Carolina with the hamstring, his second straight absence (source: rotowire.com), and the Eagles call it week-to-week, not long-term. Dameon Pierce played 61 of 64 snaps in his place, so Barkley gets the volume back when healthy, but he was at 7.1 a game here in four games before the injury, and Jalen Hurts was out too. We have Week 7 as a coin flip and stay at 12.5, far under Sleeper's 16. At 2,672 he's still the biggest overpay among the backs; sell.

    Why not the projection (16.0) 12.5, far under Sleeper's 16: 7.1 a game here before the hamstring in a stalled offense; Week 7 a coin flip.

    What changed Questionable week moves from 6 to 7 after he missed Week 6.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    10.8

    Above repl.

    -0.9

    Wks 15–17

    11.5

    Games

    9.5

    The Naughty Betas →
87. 87WR23George PickensDAL · @vtandaleSell14.0+0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 13.1, likely 6.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.77
    2. Week 8: expected 15.4, likely 8.9–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.28
    3. Week 9: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.39
    4. Week 10: expected 13.6, likely 6.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.610
    5. Week 11: expected 15.1, likely 8.8–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.711
    6. Week 12: expected 13.5, likely 6.3–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.512
    7. Week 13: expected 13.3, likely 6.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.113
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected14
    9. Week 15: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.915
    10. Week 16: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.316
    11. Week 17: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.317

    Week 6 was 6 catches for 73 yards on 11 targets (15.35) at Green Bay, leading Dallas in yards with Lamb back (source: draftsharks.com). Dallas throws enough to feed both, but he's at 15.3 ppg with one spike game, and Week 14 is the bye. At 14 he's about a point a week below a free agent. FantasyCalc's 3134 is still a big overpay; vtandale should sell.

    Why not the projection (14.0) 14 vs Sleeper's 14.0: same as Sleeper.

    What changed Tier 8 to 7 and ppg 13.5 to 14: he held 11 targets next to a healthy Lamb, and replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which puts him at the bottom edge of Tier 7.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    12.7

    Above repl.

    -1.0

    Wks 15–17

    13.9

    Games

    10

    96 bulls →
88. 88WR24Michael WilsonARI · @PredjsHold14.0-1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 12.8, likely 6–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.17
    2. Week 8: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.78
    3. Week 9: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.99
    4. Week 10: expected 13.0, likely 6.1–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.510
    5. Week 11: expected 13.3, likely 6.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–2611
    6. Week 12: expected 15.8, likely 9.1–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.812
    7. Week 13: expected 13.4, likely 6.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.213
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected14
    9. Week 15: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.115
    10. Week 16: expected 14.3, likely 8.3–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.316
    11. Week 17: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.717

    Week 6 was 7.9, his third straight game under 20 as Arizona's top wideout, and he's at 13.2 ppg. The Harrison trade gave him the role but not the production. Week 14 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 1801 is fair; Predjs holds.

    Why not the projection (15.5) 14 vs Sleeper's 15.5: he's at 13.2 ppg and has scored 8.15 and 7.9 since becoming the No. 1.

    What changed Tier 8 to 7 despite ppg 15 to 14 after two quiet games: replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which puts him at the bottom edge of Tier 7.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    12.7

    Above repl.

    -1.0

    Wks 15–17

    14.3

    Games

    10

    Coked up Dakshots →
89. 89WR25Jameson WilliamsDET · @SettytsSell12.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 12.7, likely 4.3–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–287
    2. Week 8: expected 11.2, likely 3.8–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.68
    3. Week 9: expected 14.0, likely 4.7–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–30.79
    4. Week 10: expected 12.0, likely 4.1–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–26.510
    5. Week 11: expected 12.8, likely 4.3–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–28.211
    6. Week 12: expected 12.8, likely 4.3–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–28.112
    7. Week 13: expected 12.0, likely 4.1–18, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–26.513
    8. Week 14: expected 13.1, likely 4.4–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–28.914
    9. Week 15: expected 11.2, likely 3.8–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.715
    10. Week 16: expected 12.5, likely 4.2–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–27.516
    11. Week 17: expected 12.9, likely 4.3–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–28.317

    Detroit had its bye in Week 6. He's at 12.7 ppg on a TD-dependent role behind St. Brown and LaPorta, with two straight 18-plus games built on three TDs. No bye left. FantasyCalc's 1303 is fair; Settyts should sell the TD run.

    What changed No change in ppg or tier; the lower replacement level narrows his gap to about a point a week.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    12.5

    Above repl.

    -1.2

    Wks 15–17

    12.2

    Games

    11

    WALLAHI on the Beat →
90. 90K3Cam LittleJAX · @arireddyHold10.0+0.2

    1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    2. Week 8: expected 10.2, likely 5.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–208
    3. Week 9: expected 9.7, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.19
    4. Week 10: expected 9.7, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.110
    5. Week 11: expected 9.7, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.111
    6. Week 12: expected 9.7, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.112
    7. Week 13: expected 9.7, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.113
    8. Week 14: expected 10.2, likely 5.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–2014
    9. Week 15: expected 10.4, likely 5.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.415
    10. Week 16: expected 10.7, likely 5.4–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–20.916
    11. Week 17: expected 10.2, likely 5.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–2017

    13.5 in Week 6 and 11.5 a game. Jacksonville is on bye in Week 7, so arireddy needs a fill-in; across the rest of the season he's just under replacement.

    What changed Tier 7 to 8: ppg nudged 9.8 to 10, but the K replacement level rose to 10.3 and the Week 7 bye counts against him.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    9.1

    Above repl.

    -1.2

    Wks 15–17

    10.4

    Games

    10

    dogwater →
91. 91RB25RJ HarveyDEN · @sishaarSell11.5+1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 12.0, likely 5.1–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–24.77
    2. Week 8: expected 10.8, likely 4.6–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–22.28
    3. Week 9: expected 11.6, likely 4.9–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–23.99
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    5. Week 11: expected 11.8, likely 5–17, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–24.411
    6. Week 12: expected 11.1, likely 4.7–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–2312
    7. Week 13: expected 12.3, likely 5.2–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.8–25.413
    8. Week 14: expected 11.3, likely 4.8–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–23.214
    9. Week 15: expected 11.7, likely 5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–24.215
    10. Week 16: expected 11.1, likely 4.7–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–2316
    11. Week 17: expected 11.2, likely 4.7–16, 10th–90th percentile 0.7–2317

    16.4 here in Week 6 after 1.35 the week before, which is the whole problem: J.K. Dobbins leads Denver's backfield and Harvey's role swings week to week (source: rotoballer.com). He's at 13.1 a game, but that average leans on Week 4's 10-catch game. We go up one to 11.5, still just under replacement. At 885 he's not worth what a manager would pay in hope; sell for anything.

    Why not the projection (13.5) 11.5, under Sleeper's 13.5: a change-of-pace role behind Dobbins with a weekly range from 1 to 22.

    What changed Up a point to 11.5 after 16.4 in Week 6.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    10.4

    Above repl.

    -1.3

    Wks 15–17

    11.3

    Games

    10

    commish →
92. 92WR26Luther BurdenCHI · @nikashHold13.5+1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.87
    2. Week 8: expected 12.4, likely 5.8–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.48
    3. Week 9: expected 13.7, likely 6.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–26.89
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
    5. Week 11: expected 13.3, likely 6.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.111
    6. Week 12: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.112
    7. Week 13: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.913
    8. Week 14: expected 14.7, likely 8.6–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.114
    9. Week 15: expected 12.8, likely 6–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.115
    10. Week 16: expected 13.3, likely 6.3–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.216
    11. Week 17: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.117

    Week 6 was 19.4, his second-best game of the year, with Caleb Williams back from the hamstring at Atlanta (source: si.com). He's at 13.5 ppg, and Williams is the first real upgrade for Chicago's receivers since Week 2. Week 10 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 1604 is fair; nikash holds for the Williams bump.

    Why not the projection (15.1) 13.5 vs Sleeper's 15.1: he's at 13.5 ppg and Chicago spreads targets across three receivers and the tight end.

    What changed ppg 12.5 to 13.5 after the 19.4 game in Caleb Williams' return; still Tier 8.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    12.3

    Above repl.

    -1.4

    Wks 15–17

    13.4

    Games

    10

    The Naughty Betas →
93. 93WR27DJ MooreBUF · @sishaarHold14.0–

    1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
    2. Week 8: expected 7.0, likely 0–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.1 (questionable)8
    3. Week 9: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–24.99
    4. Week 10: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–19, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.910
    5. Week 11: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.711
    6. Week 12: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.812
    7. Week 13: expected 13.7, likely 6.4–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–26.813
    8. Week 14: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–2414
    9. Week 15: expected 14.4, likely 8.4–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.515
    10. Week 16: expected 12.9, likely 6–18, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.216
    11. Week 17: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.717

    He was inactive for the second straight game with the AC joint sprain, after one limited practice (source: nbcsports.com). Week 7 is Buffalo's bye, and Buffalo hasn't given a timeline, so we mark Week 8 questionable. Healthy he's about 14; he's at 10 ppg with two shoulder exits. FantasyCalc's 1646 is fair; sishaar holds.

    Why not the projection (15.7) Questionable Week 8 (shoulder, inactive Weeks 5-6, Week 7 bye); 14 per game when he plays, below Sleeper's 15.7 because he's at 10 ppg and keeps re-injuring it.

    What changed Out weeks changed: Week 6 is past and Week 8 is now questionable. Replacement fell from 15.8 to 13.7 (Malik Washington is now the best free-agent WR), which narrows his gap, but he stays Tier 8.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    12.1

    Above repl.

    -1.6

    Wks 15–17

    14.3

    Games

    9.5

    commish →
94. 94K4Tyler LoopBAL · @ShukyHold9.5new

    1. Week 7: expected 10.1, likely 5.1–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–19.87
    2. Week 8: expected 9.2, likely 4.7–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–188
    3. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.49
    4. Week 10: expected 9.8, likely 5–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–19.310
    5. Week 11: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.411
    6. Week 12: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.412
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: expected 9.7, likely 4.9–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–1914
    9. Week 15: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.415
    10. Week 16: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.416
    11. Week 17: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.417

    Three points in Week 6 in Baltimore's 13-10 loss to Cleveland, with Lamar Jackson out again (sources: nbcsports.com, nbcsports.com). He's at 12.3 a game for the season, so we're above Sleeper's 8.7, but under replacement with a Week 13 bye until Jackson returns.

    Why not the projection (8.7) Above Sleeper's 8.7: 12.3 a game through six.

    What changed New to the board: Shuky's kicker, 12.3 a game so far but with a backup QB offense.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    8.7

    Above repl.

    -1.6

    Wks 15–17

    9.4

    Games

    10

    To infinity and bijan →
95. 95QB32Deshaun WatsonCLE · @skollurSell15.0-2.0

    1. Week 7: expected 19.1, likely 11.5–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.37
    2. Week 8: expected 17.6, likely 10.6–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.88
    3. Week 9: expected 17.8, likely 10.7–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.19
    4. Week 10: expected 17.8, likely 10.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.110
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 2.6, likely 1.6–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–4.512
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected14
    9. Week 15: bye or not projected15
    10. Week 16: bye or not projected16
    11. Week 17: bye or not projected17

    Week 6 was 16 of 26 for 164 yards and no TDs with eight carries for 29 yards (13.3 in our scoring), his third straight game under 16. Sleeper hands the job to Shedeur Sanders from Week 12, so he has four projected starts (Weeks 7-10) and nothing in the playoffs. I cut him from 17 to 15. His per-week value is tier 8, but I keep him tier 7, one up, because those four starts cover bye weeks. FantasyCalc's 541 is more than that's worth; skollur should sell.

    Why not the projection (14.4) 15 per game, above Sleeper's 14.4: the carries give him a floor, but three straight weeks under 16.

    What changed Tier 6 to 7 and ppg 17 to 15 after a third straight weak game.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    6.8

    Above repl.

    -1.6

    Wks 15–17

    0.0

    Games

    5

    JSN’s backpack →
96. 96RB26Blake CorumLAR · @nikashBuy11.0new

    1. Week 7: expected 11.8, likely 6.4–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 3–21.87
    2. Week 8: expected 11.3, likely 6.1–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.98
    3. Week 9: expected 11.0, likely 6–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.49
    4. Week 10: expected 11.2, likely 6–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.610
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 11.4, likely 6.2–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–21.112
    7. Week 13: expected 10.6, likely 5.7–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–19.713
    8. Week 14: expected 10.4, likely 5.6–14, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–19.214
    9. Week 15: expected 11.9, likely 6.4–16, 10th–90th percentile 3–2215
    10. Week 16: expected 10.1, likely 5.5–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.716
    11. Week 17: expected 10.3, likely 5.6–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–19.117

    Nine carries for 42 yards plus a receiving TD in the loss to Arizona, two touches behind Kyren Williams, the closest split of the season (source: nbcsports.com). That's 15.95 here after 17.9 in Week 5, and his role has grown two weeks running. On his own he's just under replacement, but he's the Rams' handcuff with real standalone work, so we move him up a tier for the upside. At 747 he's nearly free; buy.

    Why not the projection (9.7) 11, above Sleeper's 9.7: 17.9 and 15.95 the last two weeks as his share of the Rams' backfield grows.

    What changed New to the board: two straight games over 15 as his share grows next to Kyren Williams.

    Tier

    7

    Per week

    10.0

    Above repl.

    -1.7

    Wks 15–17

    10.8

    Games

    10

    The Naughty Betas →
97. 97K5Jason MyersSEA · @SettytsHold9.5–

    1. Week 7: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.37
    2. Week 8: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.58
    3. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.59
    4. Week 10: expected 9.8, likely 5–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.210
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.512
    7. Week 13: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.513
    8. Week 14: expected 9.8, likely 5–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.214
    9. Week 15: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.515
    10. Week 16: expected 9.7, likely 4.9–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–1916
    11. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 4.9–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.717

    10.5 in Week 6 and 11.4 a game, most of it from the 26.5 in Week 5. We stay at 9.5, under the new 10.3 replacement with a Week 11 bye; streamable.

    What changed Tier 7 to 8 with ppg unchanged: the K replacement level rose from 9.3 to 10.3.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    8.6

    Above repl.

    -1.7

    Wks 15–17

    9.5

    Games

    10

    WALLAHI on the Beat →
98. 98WR28Carnell TateTEN · @nikashHold13.0+0.5

    1. Week 7: expected 11.8, likely 5.5–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.17
    2. Week 8: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.88
    3. Week 9: bye or not projected9
    4. Week 10: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–24.810
    5. Week 11: expected 13.9, likely 6.6–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–27.311
    6. Week 12: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–24.912
    7. Week 13: expected 14.0, likely 6.6–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–27.413
    8. Week 14: expected 13.7, likely 6.4–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–26.914
    9. Week 15: expected 12.6, likely 5.9–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–24.815
    10. Week 16: expected 12.9, likely 6.1–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.416
    11. Week 17: expected 12.8, likely 6–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.117

    Week 6 was 20.05, a bounce back from the 1.65 in Week 5, and he's at 11.6 ppg with a log that swings with Tennessee's passing game. Week 9 is the bye. At 13 he's still about two points a week below a free agent. FantasyCalc's 1285 is fair for a rookie with a target share; nikash holds.

    Why not the projection (15.9) 13 vs Sleeper's 15.9: he's at 11.6 ppg in one of the league's weakest passing offenses.

    What changed ppg 12.5 to 13 after the 20.05 game; still Tier 8, but the lower replacement level narrows his gap.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    11.8

    Above repl.

    -1.9

    Wks 15–17

    12.8

    Games

    10

    The Naughty Betas →
99. 99WR29Denzel BostonCLE · @arireddyHold13.0-1.0

    1. Week 7: expected 13.6, likely 6.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–26.67
    2. Week 8: expected 13.0, likely 6.1–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.48
    3. Week 9: expected 12.9, likely 6.1–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.49
    4. Week 10: expected 12.9, likely 6.1–18, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.310
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
    6. Week 12: expected 13.1, likely 6.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.612
    7. Week 13: expected 13.3, likely 6.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–26.113
    8. Week 14: expected 12.4, likely 5.9–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.414
    9. Week 15: expected 13.0, likely 6.1–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.415
    10. Week 16: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–2516
    11. Week 17: expected 12.9, likely 6–18, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.217

    Week 6 was 2.8, his worst game after five straight between 9.2 and 22.75, and he's at 13.3 ppg as Cleveland's top target. The low-volume Browns offense caps his ceiling, and Week 11 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 1101 is fair; arireddy holds as a bye-week piece.

    Why not the projection (11.8) 13 vs Sleeper's 11.8: he's at 13.3 ppg as Cleveland's top target.

    What changed ppg 14 to 13 after the 2.8 game; still Tier 8.

    Tier

    8

    Per week

    11.8

    Above repl.

    -1.9

    Wks 15–17

    12.9

    Games

    10

    dogwater →
100. 100TE8Brenton StrangeJAX · @tsinghHold18.0-1.0

     1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
     2. Week 8: expected 17.4, likely 9.6–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–32.98
     3. Week 9: expected 17.6, likely 9.7–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.39
     4. Week 10: expected 18.6, likely 10.2–24.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–35.110
     5. Week 11: expected 17.7, likely 9.7–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.411
     6. Week 12: expected 18.5, likely 10.2–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–3512
     7. Week 13: expected 17.8, likely 9.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.713
     8. Week 14: expected 17.5, likely 9.6–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.114
     9. Week 15: expected 17.6, likely 9.7–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.215
     10. Week 16: expected 18.8, likely 10.3–25.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–35.616
     11. Week 17: expected 18.6, likely 10.3–25, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–35.217

     Five of 7 for 44 in the loss to Houston, 18.65 here, while Nate Boerkircher took the tight end TD and Jacksonville went away from him after halftime (source: nbcsports.com). That's 72 points over his last three after a slow start, 17.0 a game overall. Week 7 is his bye, and at 18 a game he's now just under the 18.5 a free agent gives. FantasyCalc's 806 is fair; hold, but he's a depth TE now, not a starter you'd pay for.

     Why not the projection (18.6) Slightly under Sleeper's 18.6: second-half fade in Week 6 and Boerkircher stealing red-zone looks.

     What changed Tier 5 to 8: ppg trimmed 19 to 18, and the TE replacement level jumped from 14.3 to 18.5 with Hockenson on waivers; the Week 7 bye also counts.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     16.4

     Above repl.

     -2.1

     Wks 15–17

     18.3

     Games

     10

     Tua deez nuts →
101. 101WR30Xavier WorthyKC · @SettytsHold11.5new

     1. Week 7: expected 10.3, likely 4.8–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–20.17
     2. Week 8: expected 10.8, likely 5.1–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–21.28
     3. Week 9: expected 11.9, likely 5.6–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.29
     4. Week 10: expected 11.5, likely 5.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.610
     5. Week 11: expected 12.9, likely 6.1–18, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.211
     6. Week 12: expected 11.4, likely 5.4–16, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.412
     7. Week 13: expected 10.9, likely 5.1–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–21.413
     8. Week 14: expected 12.4, likely 5.8–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.414
     9. Week 15: expected 11.5, likely 5.4–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.515
     10. Week 16: expected 11.2, likely 5.3–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–2216
     11. Week 17: expected 12.0, likely 5.7–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.617

     New to the board. Week 6 was 15.4, his best game, with Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton out (source: kctv5.com). He's at 10.2 ppg, and a healthy Rice pushes him back to the third option behind Kelce. FantasyCalc's 551 is about right; Settyts holds as depth.

     What changed New to the board after scoring 15.4 with Rice out.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     11.5

     Above repl.

     -2.2

     Wks 15–17

     11.6

     Games

     11

     WALLAHI on the Beat →
102. 102WR31Deebo SamuelSF · not rostered now · out Wk 7Hold14.5–

     1. Week 7: out7
     2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
     3. Week 9: expected 7.6, likely 0–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.2 (questionable)9
     4. Week 10: expected 16.0, likely 9.3–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.110
     5. Week 11: expected 13.6, likely 6.4–19, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–26.611
     6. Week 12: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.812
     7. Week 13: expected 15.0, likely 8.7–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.413
     8. Week 14: expected 13.9, likely 6.5–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–27.214
     9. Week 15: expected 14.9, likely 8.7–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.415
     10. Week 16: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–19, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.916
     11. Week 17: expected 14.1, likely 8.2–19, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.917

     He missed Week 6 with the hamstring, and Shanahan says he'll miss at least a couple of weeks (source: espn.com). We keep Week 7 out; Week 8 is San Francisco's bye, and Week 9 is questionable. He was at 18.1 ppg before the injury, and his carries score extra here. FantasyCalc's 744 already prices the injury; tsingh holds.

     Why not the projection (13.1) Out Week 7 and questionable Week 9 (hamstring); 14.5 per game when back, above Sleeper's 13.1 because his carries score extra here.

     What changed Week 6 out mark dropped now that it has passed; Week 7 out and Week 9 questionable stay.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     11.2

     Above repl.

     -2.5

     Wks 15–17

     14.4

     Games

     8.5

     Tua deez nuts →
103. 103TE9Dallas GoedertPHI · @arireddyHold17.5+0.5

     1. Week 7: expected 17.9, likely 9.9–24, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–33.97
     2. Week 8: expected 18.3, likely 10.1–24.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–34.68
     3. Week 9: expected 17.3, likely 9.5–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–32.69
     4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
     5. Week 11: expected 17.2, likely 9.5–23, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–32.511
     6. Week 12: expected 18.5, likely 10.2–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–34.912
     7. Week 13: expected 18.1, likely 9.9–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.113
     8. Week 14: expected 17.1, likely 9.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–32.314
     9. Week 15: expected 16.3, likely 9–21.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–30.915
     10. Week 16: expected 17.2, likely 9.5–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–32.516
     11. Week 17: expected 16.7, likely 9.2–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–31.517

     Six of 8 for 61 in the 25-14 loss to Carolina, 21.85 here, leading the Eagles in targets and catches on check-downs from Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts injured (source: nbcsports.com). That's 19.55 and 21.85 since the knee, and a backup QB who checks down helps a TE in this scoring. We nudge him to 17.5, a point under replacement with a Week 10 bye. At 889 he's a fair hold for arireddy.

     Why not the projection (16.5) Above Sleeper's 16.5: team target leader in both games since returning, with a check-down QB.

     What changed Tier 6 to 8 even with ppg up 17 to 17.5: the TE replacement level jumped from 14.3 to 18.5 when Hockenson was dropped.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     15.9

     Above repl.

     -2.6

     Wks 15–17

     16.7

     Games

     10

     dogwater →
104. 104TE10Juwan JohnsonNO · @nikashHold17.5-2.0

     1. Week 7: expected 17.2, likely 9.5–23, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–32.57
     2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
     3. Week 9: expected 17.0, likely 9.3–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–32.19
     4. Week 10: expected 16.7, likely 9.2–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–31.610
     5. Week 11: expected 17.9, likely 9.8–24, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–33.811
     6. Week 12: expected 18.1, likely 9.9–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.212
     7. Week 13: expected 17.7, likely 9.7–23.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.513
     8. Week 14: expected 16.8, likely 9.2–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–31.714
     9. Week 15: expected 18.2, likely 10–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.515
     10. Week 16: expected 18.5, likely 10.2–24.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–3516
     11. Week 17: expected 17.3, likely 9.5–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–32.717

     No catches on 2 targets in the Week 6 win over the Giants, a zero here (source: nbcsports.com). That's 10.85 and 0 in two weeks after 21 a game in the first four, so the role is thinning. We cut him to 17.5, below the 18.5 replacement with a Week 8 bye. FantasyCalc's 808 is about right for depth; hold, nikash has better TE options.

     What changed Tier 5 to 8 and ppg 19.5 to 17.5: zero in Week 6 on 2 targets, plus the TE replacement level jumped to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     15.9

     Above repl.

     -2.6

     Wks 15–17

     18.0

     Games

     10

     The Naughty Betas →
105. 105TE11Tucker KraftGB · @PredjsSell17.5-0.5

     1. Week 7: expected 18.2, likely 10–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.47
     2. Week 8: expected 16.5, likely 9.1–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–31.28
     3. Week 9: expected 17.5, likely 9.6–23.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.19
     4. Week 10: expected 16.0, likely 8.8–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–30.310
     5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
     6. Week 12: expected 16.5, likely 9.1–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–31.112
     7. Week 13: expected 18.0, likely 9.9–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–3413
     8. Week 14: expected 16.9, likely 9.3–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–3214
     9. Week 15: expected 19.8, likely 10.9–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–37.415
     10. Week 16: expected 18.1, likely 9.9–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–34.216
     11. Week 17: expected 17.8, likely 9.8–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–33.617

     Five of 8 for 37 in the Week 6 win over Dallas, 16.2 here, after leaving in the second quarter when a hit twisted his knee; it was the opposite knee from last year's ACL, and he missed only a drive (source: nbcsports.com). Now Predjs's after the Oct 19 trade with tsingh, he gets Detroit's TE-friendly defense in Week 7. But he's at 16.2 a game with Watson and Golden capping the ceiling, and at 17.5 that's below the new 18.5 replacement. FantasyCalc's 1,533 is starter money for a T8 here; sell.

     Why not the projection (18.5) Under Sleeper's 18.5: 16.2 a game with a capped target share.

     What changed Tier 5 to 8: ppg trimmed 18 to 17.5 after a knee scare, and the TE replacement level rose from 14.3 to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped. Traded tsingh to Predjs Oct 19.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     15.9

     Above repl.

     -2.6

     Wks 15–17

     18.6

     Games

     10

     Coked up Dakshots →
106. 106RB27Braelon AllenNYJ · @nikashBuy10.0new

     1. Week 7: expected 10.7, likely 5.8–14.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–19.77
     2. Week 8: expected 10.6, likely 5.7–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–19.68
     3. Week 9: expected 9.3, likely 5–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17.19
     4. Week 10: expected 9.8, likely 5.3–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.110
     5. Week 11: expected 10.0, likely 5.4–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.611
     6. Week 12: expected 10.6, likely 5.7–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–19.512
     7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
     8. Week 14: expected 9.7, likely 5.2–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–1814
     9. Week 15: expected 10.2, likely 5.5–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.815
     10. Week 16: expected 10.0, likely 5.4–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.416
     11. Week 17: expected 8.9, likely 4.8–12, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.417

     16.65 here in the loss to New England after 21 in Week 5, both as the Jets' lead back with Breece Hall out (source: rotowire.com). Sleeper's projection assumes Hall is back; we have Hall out Week 7 and a coin flip in Week 8, so Allen's next two weeks are worth mid-teens and the rest of the season much less. Our ppg is a blend at 10, under replacement, but we move him up a tier for the short-term starts. At 515 he's free; buy.

     Why not the projection (8.6) 10, above Sleeper's 8.6: Sleeper assumes Hall returns now; we have Hall out Week 7 and questionable Week 8.

     What changed New to the board: the Jets' lead back with Hall out, 21 and 16.65 the last two weeks.

     Tier

     7

     Per week

     9.1

     Above repl.

     -2.6

     Wks 15–17

     9.7

     Games

     10

     The Naughty Betas →
107. 107K6Nick FolkATL · @nikashSell8.5new

     1. Week 7: expected 8.6, likely 4.4–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.97
     2. Week 8: expected 8.4, likely 4.3–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.58
     3. Week 9: expected 8.3, likely 4.2–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.39
     4. Week 10: expected 8.7, likely 4.4–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–1710
     5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
     6. Week 12: expected 8.3, likely 4.2–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.312
     7. Week 13: expected 8.3, likely 4.2–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.313
     8. Week 14: expected 8.3, likely 4.2–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.314
     9. Week 15: expected 8.3, likely 4.2–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.315
     10. Week 16: expected 9.1, likely 4.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17.816
     11. Week 17: expected 8.3, likely 4.2–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.317

     One point in Week 6 and 7.8 a game, the lowest of any rostered kicker. Atlanta has the Week 11 bye. Below replacement; nikash should stream.

     What changed New to the board: nikash's kicker, 7.8 a game, well under the 10.3 replacement.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     7.7

     Above repl.

     -2.6

     Wks 15–17

     8.6

     Games

     10

     The Naughty Betas →
108. 108QB33J.J. McCarthyNYG · @PredjsHold6.0+6.0

     1. Week 7: expected 5.7, likely 3.4–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–9.67
     2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
     3. Week 9: expected 6.0, likely 3.6–8, 10th–90th percentile 2–10.19
     4. Week 10: expected 6.0, likely 3.6–8, 10th–90th percentile 2–10.110
     5. Week 11: expected 5.7, likely 3.4–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–9.611
     6. Week 12: expected 7.2, likely 4.3–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–12.212
     7. Week 13: expected 5.7, likely 3.4–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–9.613
     8. Week 14: expected 5.9, likely 3.5–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–9.914
     9. Week 15: expected 6.0, likely 3.6–8, 10th–90th percentile 2–10.115
     10. Week 16: expected 7.4, likely 4.4–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–12.416
     11. Week 17: expected 6.6, likely 4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–11.217

     Week 6 was a real role: 11 of 21 for 243 yards, a TD, a pick and two runs for 26 yards on 31 of 77 snaps (21.45 in our scoring), as Harbaugh said not using his package would be negligent (source: newsweek.com). Sleeper still projects him as a backup at 0.4, but a 30-40% snap share is worth something, and he's one bad Winston game from starting. I put him at 6 per game with upside, so tier 7, one up for the starting chance. Predjs should hold him now, not drop him.

     Why not the projection (0.4) 6 per game, far above Sleeper's 0.4: he took 31 snaps and scored 21.45 in Week 6 in a package role Sleeper doesn't project.

     What changed Tier 8 to 7, ppg 0 to 6 and lean sell to hold after a 21.45-point package role in Week 6.

     Tier

     7

     Per week

     5.7

     Above repl.

     -2.7

     Wks 15–17

     6.7

     Games

     10

     Coked up Dakshots →
109. 109WR32DK MetcalfPIT · @skollurHold12.0+1.0

     1. Week 7: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–24.87
     2. Week 8: expected 11.6, likely 5.4–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.78
     3. Week 9: bye or not projected9
     4. Week 10: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–24.910
     5. Week 11: expected 11.5, likely 5.4–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.511
     6. Week 12: expected 10.9, likely 5.1–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–21.312
     7. Week 13: expected 12.2, likely 5.8–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–2413
     8. Week 14: expected 12.2, likely 5.7–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–2414
     9. Week 15: expected 12.1, likely 5.7–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.715
     10. Week 16: expected 11.3, likely 5.3–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.216
     11. Week 17: expected 13.1, likely 6.1–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.617

     Week 6 was 22.1, his best game as a Steeler, after the 4.05 the week before. He's at 12.4 ppg as Pittsburgh's No. 1 in an offense that doesn't produce much. Week 9 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 1163 is fair; skollur holds him as depth.

     Why not the projection (13.1) 12 vs Sleeper's 13.1: he's at 12.4 ppg with three games under 9.

     What changed ppg 11 to 12 after the 22.1 game; still Tier 8.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     10.9

     Above repl.

     -2.8

     Wks 15–17

     12.2

     Games

     10

     JSN’s backpack →
110. 110WR33Terry McLaurinWAS · not rostered nowHold12.0-1.0

     1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
     2. Week 8: expected 11.4, likely 5.3–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–22.28
     3. Week 9: expected 11.1, likely 5.2–15.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–21.79
     4. Week 10: expected 12.2, likely 5.7–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–23.910
     5. Week 11: expected 12.6, likely 5.9–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.711
     6. Week 12: expected 13.2, likely 6.2–18.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–25.912
     7. Week 13: expected 12.9, likely 6.1–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.413
     8. Week 14: expected 12.1, likely 5.7–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–23.814
     9. Week 15: expected 11.7, likely 5.5–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–22.915
     10. Week 16: expected 10.8, likely 5.1–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–21.116
     11. Week 17: expected 12.1, likely 5.7–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–23.817

     Week 6 was 4.5, a step back after the 13.65 with Jayden Daniels in Week 5, and he's at 10.4 ppg. Week 7 is Washington's bye. At 12 he's about two points a week below a free agent. FantasyCalc's 1310 is fair; sishaar holds.

     What changed ppg 13 to 12 after the 4.5 game; still Tier 8.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     10.9

     Above repl.

     -2.8

     Wks 15–17

     11.5

     Games

     10

     commish →
111. 111WR34Ladd McConkeyLAC · @vtandaleHold12.5-0.5

     1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
     2. Week 8: expected 5.8, likely 0–10.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.4 (questionable)8
     3. Week 9: expected 12.5, likely 5.9–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.69
     4. Week 10: expected 12.5, likely 5.9–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.410
     5. Week 11: expected 12.5, likely 5.9–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–24.411
     6. Week 12: expected 12.1, likely 5.7–17, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.712
     7. Week 13: expected 13.0, likely 6.1–18.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–25.513
     8. Week 14: expected 12.7, likely 6–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–2514
     9. Week 15: expected 11.9, likely 5.6–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.415
     10. Week 16: expected 14.0, likely 8.1–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.816
     11. Week 17: expected 11.8, likely 5.5–16.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–23.117

     He finally shed the foot designation, then left Week 6 at Kansas City in the second quarter with a concussion after one catch for 17 yards (3.0) (source: sports.yahoo.com). Week 7 is the Chargers' bye, which helps, but we mark Week 8 questionable until he clears the protocol. He's at 8.6 ppg on an 0-6 team. FantasyCalc's 1108 is fair; vtandale holds.

     Why not the projection (14.3) 12.5 vs Sleeper's 14.3: he's at 8.6 ppg and has been hurt since Week 4; Week 8 questionable (concussion).

     What changed ppg 13 to 12.5; the Week 6 questionable mark is gone, and Week 8 is now questionable for the concussion.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     10.8

     Above repl.

     -2.9

     Wks 15–17

     12.6

     Games

     9.5

     96 bulls →
112. 112RB28Omarion HamptonLAC · @sishaarSell9.5–

     1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
     2. Week 8: expected 9.1, likely 4.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.88
     3. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 5.1–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17.39
     4. Week 10: expected 9.2, likely 5–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–1710
     5. Week 11: expected 9.6, likely 5.2–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–17.811
     6. Week 12: expected 9.9, likely 5.3–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.312
     7. Week 13: expected 9.1, likely 4.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.813
     8. Week 14: expected 10.3, likely 5.6–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–1914
     9. Week 15: expected 9.2, likely 5–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–1715
     10. Week 16: expected 10.2, likely 5.5–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.916
     11. Week 17: expected 9.3, likely 5–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17.117

     9.2 here in Week 6, another quiet game in a three-way split with Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell (source: rotoballer.com). He's at 11.5 a game, with only Week 2 over 15.25, and he's been kept off third downs and the two-minute drill. We stay at 9.5, well below replacement, with the Week 7 bye next. At 1,472 the market still pays for his draft slot; sell.

     Why not the projection (11.8) 9.5, under Sleeper's 11.8: a shrinking role in a three-way split.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     8.7

     Above repl.

     -3.0

     Wks 15–17

     9.6

     Games

     10

     commish →
113. 113RB29Alvin KamaraNO · @arireddySell9.0+0.5

     1. Week 7: expected 11.3, likely 6.1–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.97
     2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
     3. Week 9: expected 8.2, likely 4.5–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.39
     4. Week 10: expected 9.0, likely 4.9–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.710
     5. Week 11: expected 9.2, likely 5–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–1711
     6. Week 12: expected 9.3, likely 5–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17.212
     7. Week 13: expected 8.7, likely 4.7–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.113
     8. Week 14: expected 9.0, likely 4.8–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.614
     9. Week 15: expected 8.1, likely 4.4–11, 10th–90th percentile 2–15.115
     10. Week 16: expected 8.9, likely 4.8–12, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.416
     11. Week 17: expected 8.2, likely 4.4–11.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.217

     Seven carries for 34 yards and a receiving TD in the win over the Giants, playing through a back injury, while Kendre Miller got 20 carries and led the backfield (sources: nbcsports.com; nbcsports.com). That's 16.6 here, but on nine touches; take away the TD and it's another single-digit game. Travis Etienne can return from IR in Week 9, which makes Kamara the third option. We go up half a point to 9; at 559 there's nothing to get, so sell or cut.

     Why not the projection (7.4) 9, above Sleeper's 7.4: he's at 11.9 a game here, but a 9-touch role behind Kendre Miller.

     What changed Up half a point to 9 after a TD-driven 16.6 in Week 6.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     8.2

     Above repl.

     -3.5

     Wks 15–17

     8.4

     Games

     10

     dogwater →
114. 114RB30Keaton MitchellLAC · @arireddyHold9.0-1.0

     1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
     2. Week 8: expected 8.6, likely 4.7–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–15.98
     3. Week 9: expected 8.9, likely 4.8–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.59
     4. Week 10: expected 8.8, likely 4.7–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.210
     5. Week 11: expected 9.1, likely 4.9–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.811
     6. Week 12: expected 9.1, likely 4.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.912
     7. Week 13: expected 8.8, likely 4.7–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.213
     8. Week 14: expected 9.6, likely 5.2–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–17.714
     9. Week 15: expected 8.7, likely 4.7–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–1615
     10. Week 16: expected 9.6, likely 5.2–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–17.716
     11. Week 17: expected 8.7, likely 4.7–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.217

     5.05 here in Week 6, his lowest since Week 1, in the same three-way Chargers committee with Hampton and Kimani Vidal. He's at 10 a game here with the most explosive role of the three, but no back is pulling away. We cut a point to 9, with the Week 7 bye next. At 145 he costs nothing; hold as a lottery ticket if the Chargers pick one back.

     What changed Down a point to 9 after 5.05 in Week 6.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     8.2

     Above repl.

     -3.5

     Wks 15–17

     9.0

     Games

     10

     dogwater →
115. 115WR35Jaylen WaddleDEN · @tsinghSell11.0-0.5

     1. Week 7: expected 11.7, likely 3.9–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–25.77
     2. Week 8: expected 10.2, likely 3.4–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.48
     3. Week 9: expected 10.2, likely 3.4–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.59
     4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
     5. Week 11: expected 11.1, likely 3.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.511
     6. Week 12: expected 11.1, likely 3.7–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.412
     7. Week 13: expected 12.4, likely 4.2–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.2–27.313
     8. Week 14: expected 10.9, likely 3.7–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–2414
     9. Week 15: expected 11.2, likely 3.8–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.615
     10. Week 16: expected 10.4, likely 3.5–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.916
     11. Week 17: expected 10.6, likely 3.6–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.217

     Week 6 was 6.6, and he left the Seattle game with a shoulder injury before returning without a target (source: milehighreport.com). That's four games in six under 8, and he's at 10.0 ppg in a low-volume Denver passing game. Denver gets 10 days before Week 7. FantasyCalc's 1200 is still more than he's producing; tsingh should sell.

     Why not the projection (14.4) 11 vs Sleeper's 14.4: he's at 10.0 ppg as a secondary option for Bo Nix.

     What changed ppg 11.5 to 11 after another weak game and a shoulder scare; still Tier 8.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     10.0

     Above repl.

     -3.7

     Wks 15–17

     10.7

     Games

     10

     Tua deez nuts →
116. 116RB31David MontgomeryHOU · @nikashSell9.0–

     1. Week 7: expected 3.4, likely 0–6, 10th–90th percentile 0–10.4 (questionable)7
     2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
     3. Week 9: expected 9.5, likely 5.1–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–17.59
     4. Week 10: expected 9.1, likely 4.9–12.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.910
     5. Week 11: expected 9.9, likely 5.4–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.311
     6. Week 12: expected 9.0, likely 4.9–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.612
     7. Week 13: expected 9.0, likely 4.8–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.613
     8. Week 14: expected 9.5, likely 5.1–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–17.514
     9. Week 15: expected 8.8, likely 4.7–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.315
     10. Week 16: expected 8.7, likely 4.7–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.116
     11. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 5.1–12.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–17.617

     He missed Week 6 in London with the groin, is week-to-week, and was aiming for Week 7 against the Giants (source: thefantasyfootballers.com); with Houston's bye in Week 8, the Texans may just hold him. We keep Week 7 as a coin flip. Woody Marks has the lead role and the goal-line work, and Montgomery scored 8.9 or less in every game since the opener. We stay at 9; at 896 there's little to get, so sell or cut.

     Why not the projection (14.3) 9, far under Sleeper's 14.3: 8.9 or less in every game since Week 1, and Woody Marks has the lead role.

     What changed Week 6 absence is past; Week 7 stays a coin flip.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     7.9

     Above repl.

     -3.8

     Wks 15–17

     9.0

     Games

     9.5

     The Naughty Betas →
117. 117TE12Kyle PittsATL · @SettytsHold16.0new

     1. Week 7: expected 16.4, likely 7.2–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–34.67
     2. Week 8: expected 16.4, likely 7.2–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–34.78
     3. Week 9: expected 16.3, likely 7.1–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–34.39
     4. Week 10: expected 15.0, likely 6.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–31.710
     5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
     6. Week 12: expected 14.4, likely 6.3–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–30.412
     7. Week 13: expected 16.8, likely 7.3–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–35.413
     8. Week 14: expected 15.2, likely 6.7–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.1–32.214
     9. Week 15: expected 17.1, likely 7.5–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–36.115
     10. Week 16: expected 16.4, likely 7.2–23.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–34.616
     11. Week 17: expected 15.9, likely 7–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–33.717

     Five of 7 for 60 and two fourth-quarter TDs in the 31-23 loss to Chicago, 31.0 here, running a route on 26 of 38 dropbacks as Atlanta chased the game (sources: nbcsports.com, rotoballer.com). That's 21.45 and 31.0 in two weeks with Michael Penix Jr. and three TDs, after 7.25 total in Weeks 1-2. Sleeper's 11.9 still reflects the slow start; we're at 16, above it, but that's below the 18.5 replacement and the TDs won't keep coming. FantasyCalc's 741 is fair; hold for Settyts, but don't pay for the hot streak.

     Why not the projection (11.9) Above Sleeper's 11.9: 21.45 and 31.0 in his last two with Penix, and the routes are there.

     What changed New to the board: now Settyts's, 31.0 in Week 6 and three TDs in two weeks.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     14.5

     Above repl.

     -4.0

     Wks 15–17

     16.5

     Games

     10

     WALLAHI on the Beat →
118. 118RB32Tyler AllgeierARI · @arireddyHold8.5new

     1. Week 7: expected 9.0, likely 4.9–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.77
     2. Week 8: expected 9.3, likely 5–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17.28
     3. Week 9: expected 7.8, likely 4.2–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–14.49
     4. Week 10: expected 7.9, likely 4.3–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–14.710
     5. Week 11: expected 8.0, likely 4.3–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–14.811
     6. Week 12: expected 9.0, likely 4.9–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.612
     7. Week 13: expected 7.9, likely 4.3–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–14.713
     8. Week 14: bye or not projected14
     9. Week 15: expected 8.5, likely 4.6–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.715
     10. Week 16: expected 8.8, likely 4.8–11.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.316
     11. Week 17: expected 9.0, likely 4.8–12.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.617

     9.15 here in Week 6, sharing the work with Bam Knight while Jeremiyah Love sat with the ankle (source: nbcsports.com). He's at 8.3 a game with the passing-down role, and he got only 9.15 with Love out, so the handcuff upside is small. We're at 8.5, below replacement. At 466 he costs nothing; hold only while Love's ankle is a question.

     What changed New to the board: Arizona's passing-down back, rostered while Love's ankle is a question.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     7.7

     Above repl.

     -4.0

     Wks 15–17

     8.8

     Games

     10

     dogwater →
119. 119TE13Dalton KincaidBUF · @SettytsSell15.5+1.5

     1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
     2. Week 8: expected 15.4, likely 8.5–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 4–29.28
     3. Week 9: expected 14.2, likely 7.8–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–26.89
     4. Week 10: expected 15.5, likely 8.5–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 4–29.310
     5. Week 11: expected 17.0, likely 9.4–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–32.211
     6. Week 12: expected 14.7, likely 8.1–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.912
     7. Week 13: expected 15.3, likely 8.4–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 4–28.913
     8. Week 14: expected 15.6, likely 8.6–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–29.514
     9. Week 15: expected 15.6, likely 8.6–21, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–29.615
     10. Week 16: expected 14.4, likely 7.9–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–27.116
     11. Week 17: expected 17.1, likely 9.4–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–32.317

     Seven of 8 for 38 in the win over the Raiders, 19.05 here, with a TD called back for holding, but he left in the third quarter with a rib injury before returning in the fourth (sources: nbcsports.com, nbcsports.com). The targets came with DJ Moore out, at 5.4 yards a catch. Sleeper tags him questionable, but Buffalo's Week 7 bye gives the ribs time. We lift him to 15.5 from 14, still three under replacement; FantasyCalc's 1,026 pays for the Weeks 1-2 version, sell.

     Why not the projection (16.7) Slightly under Sleeper's 16.7: the Week 6 volume came with DJ Moore out.

     What changed ppg up 14 to 15.5 after 19.05 in Week 6; still T8 under the new 18.5 TE replacement. Rib injury, Week 7 bye.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     14.1

     Above repl.

     -4.4

     Wks 15–17

     15.7

     Games

     10

     WALLAHI on the Beat →
120. 120RB33TreVeyon HendersonNE · @vtandaleSell8.0-1.0

     1. Week 7: expected 6.4, likely 3.4–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–11.87
     2. Week 8: expected 6.9, likely 3.7–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–12.88
     3. Week 9: expected 8.6, likely 4.6–11.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–15.99
     4. Week 10: expected 9.2, likely 4.9–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–16.910
     5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
     6. Week 12: expected 8.5, likely 4.6–11.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.712
     7. Week 13: expected 8.3, likely 4.5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.413
     8. Week 14: expected 7.6, likely 4.1–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–14.114
     9. Week 15: expected 7.9, likely 4.3–10.7, 10th–90th percentile 2–14.715
     10. Week 16: expected 8.3, likely 4.5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.316
     11. Week 17: expected 8.3, likely 4.5–11.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–15.317

     He played through the high ankle sprain in Week 6 but managed only 2.25 here, with 16 snaps (24%), seven carries and a fumble, while Stevenson and Corey Kiner took the rest (source: rotowire.com). He's at 7.3 a game this season and is third in line until the ankle heals. We drop the Week 7 questionable tag since he's playing, and cut to 8. At 812 the market still pays for the rookie tag; sell.

     Why not the projection (10.9) 8, under Sleeper's 10.9: 7.3 a game here, and a 24% snap share in Week 6 on a sprained ankle.

     What changed Down a point to 8 and no longer questionable for Week 7: he played in Week 6 but in a reduced role.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     7.3

     Above repl.

     -4.4

     Wks 15–17

     8.2

     Games

     10

     96 bulls →
121. 121WR36Rome OdunzeCHI · not rostered nowSell10.0-0.5

     1. Week 7: expected 9.6, likely 3.3–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.27
     2. Week 8: expected 9.1, likely 3.1–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.18
     3. Week 9: expected 10.2, likely 3.4–15.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–22.49
     4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
     5. Week 11: expected 9.8, likely 3.3–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.511
     6. Week 12: expected 10.6, likely 3.6–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.212
     7. Week 13: expected 9.8, likely 3.3–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.513
     8. Week 14: expected 11.1, likely 3.8–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–24.514
     9. Week 15: expected 9.4, likely 3.2–14, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–20.615
     10. Week 16: expected 9.8, likely 3.3–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–21.616
     11. Week 17: expected 10.5, likely 3.6–15.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.1–23.117

     Week 6 was 8.3 even with Caleb Williams back at QB (source: si.com), and he's at 9.2 ppg with one game over 9. Burden has passed him. Week 10 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 892 is fair; sishaar should sell or cut.

     Why not the projection (12.5) 10 vs Sleeper's 12.5: he's at 9.2 ppg and has lost a fumble.

     What changed ppg 10.5 to 10 after another single-digit game; still Tier 8.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     9.1

     Above repl.

     -4.6

     Wks 15–17

     9.9

     Games

     10

     commish →
122. 122TE14Colston LovelandCHI · @arireddySell15.0+2.0

     1. Week 7: expected 14.7, likely 8.1–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.87
     2. Week 8: expected 13.9, likely 5.4–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.68
     3. Week 9: expected 15.2, likely 8.4–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 4–28.89
     4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
     5. Week 11: expected 14.9, likely 8.2–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.111
     6. Week 12: expected 15.7, likely 8.6–21, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–29.712
     7. Week 13: expected 14.8, likely 8.2–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–2813
     8. Week 14: expected 16.5, likely 9.1–22.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–31.314
     9. Week 15: expected 14.1, likely 7.7–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–26.615
     10. Week 16: expected 14.8, likely 8.1–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–2816
     11. Week 17: expected 15.6, likely 8.6–21, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–29.617

     Six of 7 for 65-75 yards and his first TD of the season in the win at Atlanta, 25.75 here, his best game, with Caleb Williams back at QB (sources: nbcsports.com, rotoballer.com). Williams' return is a real upgrade, so we lift him to 15 from 13. But that's still 12.1 a game over six and below the 18.5 replacement, with New England next. FantasyCalc's 1,376 is still draft-pick money; sell into the bounce.

     Why not the projection (17.1) Under Sleeper's 17.1: one good game in six; 12.1 a game so far.

     What changed ppg up 13 to 15 after a 25.75 Week 6 with Caleb Williams back; still T8 because the TE replacement level rose to 18.5.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     13.7

     Above repl.

     -4.8

     Wks 15–17

     14.8

     Games

     10

     dogwater →
123. 123TE15Hunter HenryNE · @skollurHold15.0+1.0

     1. Week 7: expected 15.4, likely 8.5–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 4–29.17
     2. Week 8: expected 16.7, likely 9.2–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–31.68
     3. Week 9: expected 15.2, likely 8.3–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.69
     4. Week 10: expected 15.9, likely 8.8–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–30.110
     5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
     6. Week 12: expected 15.2, likely 8.4–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.712
     7. Week 13: expected 14.5, likely 7.9–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.313
     8. Week 14: expected 13.8, likely 5.4–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–26.514
     9. Week 15: expected 14.5, likely 8–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.315
     10. Week 16: expected 15.1, likely 8.3–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.516
     11. Week 17: expected 13.9, likely 5.4–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.717

     Four of 5 for 48 and a fourth-quarter TD in the 26-19 win over the Jets, 22.55 here, his second straight scoring game (source: nbcsports.com). That's 21.7, 19.4 and 22.55 in his last three, but on 4-5 targets, so the touchdowns carry it. We nudge him to 15 from 14; that's still under the 18.5 replacement with a Week 11 bye. At 202 he's a fine hold as skollur's fill-in.

     What changed Tier 7 to 8 even with ppg up 14 to 15: the TE replacement level rose from 14.3 to 18.5 when Hockenson was dropped.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     13.7

     Above repl.

     -4.8

     Wks 15–17

     14.5

     Games

     10

     JSN’s backpack →
124. 124WR37Chris GodwinTB · @sishaarSell9.5–

     1. Week 7: expected 9.1, likely 4.3–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.87
     2. Week 8: expected 9.3, likely 4.4–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–18.38
     3. Week 9: expected 9.9, likely 4.6–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–19.39
     4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
     5. Week 11: expected 10.2, likely 4.8–14.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–20.111
     6. Week 12: expected 9.0, likely 4.2–12.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.712
     7. Week 13: expected 9.6, likely 4.5–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2–18.913
     8. Week 14: expected 9.6, likely 4.5–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2–18.714
     9. Week 15: expected 9.6, likely 4.5–13.5, 10th–90th percentile 2–18.915
     10. Week 16: expected 9.4, likely 4.4–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–18.416
     11. Week 17: expected 8.9, likely 4.2–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–17.417

     Week 6 was 8.65, and he's at 8.7 ppg with no game over 10.55 in Tampa Bay's short-passing offense. Week 10 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 340 is about right; sishaar should cut him.

     Why not the projection (11.6) 9.5 vs Sleeper's 11.6: he's at 8.7 ppg with no game over 10.55.

     What changed No change; still Tier 8 at 9.5, though the lower replacement level narrows his gap.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     8.6

     Above repl.

     -5.1

     Wks 15–17

     9.3

     Games

     10

     commish →
125. 125TE16Pat FreiermuthPIT · @nikashHold14.5-1.0

     1. Week 7: expected 14.3, likely 7.9–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–27.17
     2. Week 8: expected 14.2, likely 7.8–19, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–26.88
     3. Week 9: bye or not projected9
     4. Week 10: expected 15.2, likely 8.3–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.610
     5. Week 11: expected 14.1, likely 7.8–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–26.711
     6. Week 12: expected 13.6, likely 5.3–20, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–26.112
     7. Week 13: expected 14.7, likely 8.1–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.813
     8. Week 14: expected 14.9, likely 8.2–20, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.214
     9. Week 15: expected 14.7, likely 8.1–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.915
     10. Week 16: expected 14.0, likely 5.4–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.816
     11. Week 17: expected 15.6, likely 8.6–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–29.517

     Two of 3 for 11 in the win over Tampa Bay, 6.35 here, playing through a calf injury that made him questionable, and splitting snaps 54-54 with Darnell Washington (sources: nbcsports.com, rotoballer.com). He's at 16.1 a game but TD-dependent on 4-7 targets. We cut him to 14.5, four under replacement, with a Week 9 bye. At 268 just hold as depth.

     Why not the projection (16.0) Under Sleeper's 16: calf injury and a snap split with Darnell Washington.

     What changed Tier 6 to 8 and ppg 15.5 to 14.5: calf injury and a 6.35 Week 6, and the TE replacement level rose to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     13.2

     Above repl.

     -5.3

     Wks 15–17

     14.8

     Games

     10

     The Naughty Betas →
126. 126RB34Cam SkatteboNYG · @sishaarSell7.0-5.5

     1. Week 7: expected 6.4, likely 3.5–8.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–11.87
     2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
     3. Week 9: expected 6.5, likely 3.5–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.19
     4. Week 10: expected 7.2, likely 3.9–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–13.310
     5. Week 11: expected 6.5, likely 3.5–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–12.111
     6. Week 12: expected 7.6, likely 4.1–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–14.112
     7. Week 13: expected 6.7, likely 3.6–9, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–12.313
     8. Week 14: expected 6.3, likely 3.4–8.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–11.714
     9. Week 15: expected 7.1, likely 3.8–9.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–1315
     10. Week 16: expected 8.0, likely 4.3–10.8, 10th–90th percentile 2–14.816
     11. Week 17: expected 7.6, likely 4.1–10.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–14.117

     Active but held without a touch on six snaps in the Week 6 loss, behind Najee Harris, after his fourth fumble of the season; John Harbaugh denied a benching, but Skattebo said he got punished (sources: nbcsports.com; cbssports.com). That's a zero here, and Sleeper projects almost nothing from here. We think he earns some work back, so we're at 7, not 3.9, but he's well below replacement. At 1,162 the market hasn't caught up; sell for anything.

     Why not the projection (3.9) 7, above Sleeper's 3.9: we expect him to earn back some of the work, but not the lead role.

     What changed Down from 12.5 to 7 and from Tier 7 to 8: zero touches in Week 6 after fumble problems, with Najee Harris taking over.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     6.4

     Above repl.

     -5.3

     Wks 15–17

     7.6

     Games

     10

     commish →
127. 127TE17Harold FanninCLE · @tsinghSell14.5-2.0

     1. Week 7: expected 15.1, likely 8.3–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.9–28.67
     2. Week 8: expected 14.4, likely 7.9–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–27.38
     3. Week 9: expected 14.5, likely 8–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.49
     4. Week 10: expected 14.4, likely 7.9–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–27.110
     5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
     6. Week 12: expected 14.5, likely 8–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.412
     7. Week 13: expected 14.7, likely 8.1–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.713
     8. Week 14: expected 14.0, likely 5.5–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.914
     9. Week 15: expected 14.4, likely 7.9–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–27.315
     10. Week 16: expected 14.3, likely 7.9–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–27.116
     11. Week 17: expected 14.3, likely 7.8–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 3.7–2717

     One of 3 for 9 yards in the win over Baltimore, 2.9 here, his second straight one-catch game despite about 89% of the snaps (sources: nbcsports.com, rotoballer.com). Deshaun Watson's struggles and more receivers in the mix leave him at a 10% target share. We cut him to 14.5, four points under the best free agent, with a Week 11 bye. FantasyCalc's 745 is still too much; sell.

     Why not the projection (17.7) Well under Sleeper's 17.7: two straight one-catch games and a 10% target share.

     What changed Tier 6 to 8 and ppg 16.5 to 14.5: two straight one-catch games, and the TE replacement level rose to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     13.1

     Above repl.

     -5.4

     Wks 15–17

     14.3

     Games

     10

     Tua deez nuts →
128. 128TE18Darren WallerCAR · not rostered nowHold12.5new

     1. Week 7: expected 12.7, likely 5–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.47
     2. Week 8: expected 12.5, likely 4.9–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–248
     3. Week 9: expected 11.7, likely 4.5–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 2–22.49
     4. Week 10: expected 12.8, likely 5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.510
     5. Week 11: expected 12.7, likely 4.9–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.311
     6. Week 12: expected 13.1, likely 5.1–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–25.212
     7. Week 13: expected 11.5, likely 4.5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 2–22.113
     8. Week 14: expected 12.8, likely 5–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.514
     9. Week 15: expected 12.9, likely 5–19, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.915
     10. Week 16: expected 12.7, likely 5–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.416
     11. Week 17: expected 11.9, likely 4.7–17.5, 10th–90th percentile 2–22.917

     Played through a toe injury and caught nothing on 2 targets in the win over Philadelphia, a zero here, on 36 of 79 snaps (sources: nbcsports.com, nbcsports.com). He has 13 catches for 148 and 2 TDs in five games, 12.8 a game, a TD-dependent part-timer. We're at 12.5, six under replacement and no bye left. At 62 there's nothing to sell; somickey can drop him for Hockenson.

     Why not the projection (14.0) Under Sleeper's 14: part-time snaps and a zero in Week 6.

     What changed New to the board: somickey's TE, 12.8 a game on a part-time role, zero in Week 6.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     12.5

     Above repl.

     -6.0

     Wks 15–17

     12.5

     Games

     11

     somickey →
129. 129TE19Mark AndrewsBAL · @ShukyHold13.5-2.5

     1. Week 7: expected 14.0, likely 5.4–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.87
     2. Week 8: expected 13.0, likely 5.1–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.98
     3. Week 9: expected 13.6, likely 5.3–20, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–26.19
     4. Week 10: expected 13.6, likely 5.3–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–26.110
     5. Week 11: expected 12.9, likely 5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–24.711
     6. Week 12: expected 13.5, likely 5.3–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–2612
     7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
     8. Week 14: expected 13.9, likely 5.4–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.714
     9. Week 15: expected 13.6, likely 5.3–20, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–26.115
     10. Week 16: expected 13.0, likely 5.1–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–2516
     11. Week 17: expected 13.9, likely 5.4–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–26.617

     One catch on 3 targets for 4 yards in the 13-10 loss to Cleveland, 3.65 here, while rookie Josh Cuevas out-targeted him and scored (sources: nbcsports.com, rotoballer.com). He hasn't topped 30 yards since Week 2 and Lamar Jackson is still out. We cut him to 13.5, five under replacement. At 351 there's nothing to sell; hold as a bench body or drop for Hockenson.

     Why not the projection (17.4) Well under Sleeper's 17.4: no 30-yard game since Week 2 and a shrinking target share.

     What changed Tier 6 to 8 and ppg 16 to 13.5: Cuevas is taking targets, and the TE replacement level rose to 18.5 with Hockenson dropped.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     12.3

     Above repl.

     -6.2

     Wks 15–17

     13.5

     Games

     10

     To infinity and bijan →
130. 130TE20Dalton SchultzHOU · @sishaarHold12.5new

     1. Week 7: expected 12.2, likely 2.9–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–26.37
     2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
     3. Week 9: expected 12.6, likely 3–20, 10th–90th percentile 0–27.19
     4. Week 10: expected 12.1, likely 2.9–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–2610
     5. Week 11: expected 12.5, likely 3–19.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–26.911
     6. Week 12: expected 12.5, likely 3–19.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–26.912
     7. Week 13: expected 12.6, likely 3–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–27.213
     8. Week 14: expected 13.5, likely 3.2–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–2914
     9. Week 15: expected 12.7, likely 3–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–27.215
     10. Week 16: expected 12.0, likely 2.8–19, 10th–90th percentile 0–25.816
     11. Week 17: expected 12.7, likely 3–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–27.217

     Four of 6 for 33 in the 34-31 London win over Jacksonville, 12.55 here, leading Houston in targets on a day Stroud threw to 10 players, while Foster Moreau scored twice (source: thefantasyfootballers.com). He has no TD and five games of 35 yards or fewer; one 46.25 game makes his 16.4 average misleading. Marvin Harrison Jr.'s arrival and Tank Dell's expected Week 7 return squeeze him further. At 12.5 he's six under replacement; at 80 just hold or drop.

     Why not the projection (14.9) Under Sleeper's 14.9: no TDs and more receivers arriving in Houston.

     What changed New to the board: sishaar's TE, 16.4 a game inflated by one 46.25 week.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     11.4

     Above repl.

     -7.1

     Wks 15–17

     12.5

     Games

     10

     commish →
131. 131QB34Jalon DanielsTB · @somickeyHold14.0-2.0

     1. Week 7: expected 14.0, likely 8.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.67
     2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
     3. Week 9: bye or not projected9
     4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
     5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
     6. Week 12: bye or not projected12
     7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
     8. Week 14: bye or not projected14
     9. Week 15: bye or not projected15
     10. Week 16: bye or not projected16
     11. Week 17: bye or not projected17

     Week 6 against Pittsburgh was 22 of 43 for 164 yards, a TD and two picks plus four runs for 39 yards (15.3 in our scoring), his third start in a row while Mayfield's thumb heals. Sleeper projects him only for Week 7, and Mayfield could be back in Week 8. I cut him to 14, under Sleeper's 15.3. A one-week fill-in for somickey.

     Why not the projection (15.3) 14 per game, under Sleeper's 15.3: 12.3 ppg and two picks in Week 6.

     What changed ppg cut from 16 to 14 after a two-pick game.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     1.3

     Above repl.

     -7.1

     Wks 15–17

     0.0

     Games

     1

     somickey →
132. 132WR38Davante AdamsLAR · not rostered now · out Wk 7–10, 12Sell14.5–

     1. Week 7: out7
     2. Week 8: out8
     3. Week 9: out9
     4. Week 10: out10
     5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
     6. Week 12: out12
     7. Week 13: expected 7.1, likely 0–13.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–20.8 (questionable)13
     8. Week 14: expected 14.5, likely 8.4–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.614
     9. Week 15: expected 16.4, likely 9.5–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.815
     10. Week 16: expected 14.2, likely 8.2–19.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.116
     11. Week 17: expected 15.7, likely 9.1–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.717

     He caught 3 of 4 for 39 yards (7.8) and got hurt on the final drive of the 18-16 loss to Arizona (reports differ on knee or hamstring); McVay says he'll miss 6-10 weeks and he's headed to IR (source: nbcsports.com). We mark Weeks 7-10 and 12 out (Week 11 is the Rams' bye) and Week 13 questionable, which leaves him three or four games plus the playoffs. When he's back he's the No. 2 behind Puka at about 14.5. FantasyCalc's 2168 is too much for a playoff-only stash; Predjs should sell to anyone who'll pay for December.

     Why not the projection (16.3) Out Weeks 7-10 and 12 and questionable Week 13 (ruptured hamstring, 6-10 weeks); 14.5 per game when back, below Sleeper's 16.3 because he's the No. 2 with Puka healthy.

     What changed Out weeks added: he ruptured his hamstring in Week 6 and will miss 6-10 weeks.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     6.2

     Above repl.

     -7.5

     Wks 15–17

     15.4

     Games

     4.5

     Coked up Dakshots →
133. 133WR39Marvin HarrisonHOU · @vtandaleHold7.0-1.0

     1. Week 7: expected 15.3, likely 8.9–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.17
     2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
     3. Week 9: expected 6.0, likely 2.8–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.79
     4. Week 10: expected 5.6, likely 2.6–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–1110
     5. Week 11: expected 5.8, likely 2.7–8.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–11.411
     6. Week 12: expected 5.7, likely 2.7–8, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–11.312
     7. Week 13: expected 5.9, likely 2.8–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–11.613
     8. Week 14: expected 6.6, likely 3.1–9.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–1314
     9. Week 15: expected 5.9, likely 2.8–8.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–11.615
     10. Week 16: expected 5.5, likely 2.6–7.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.2–10.816
     11. Week 17: expected 6.0, likely 2.8–8.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–11.817

     His first game in Houston was 7.3 in the 34-31 win over Jacksonville, where Stroud spread the ball to 10 receivers and the Texans say his role will take a few weeks to define (source: cbssports.com). He's at 5.7 ppg on the season, behind Collins and Jaylin Noel. Sleeper's 2.0 still hasn't caught up to the trade. Week 8 is the bye. FantasyCalc's 923 is a stash price; vtandale holds.

     Why not the projection (2.0) 7 vs Sleeper's 2.0: Sleeper's projection predates the trade; he has a role in Houston, behind Collins and Noel.

     What changed ppg 8 to 7 after a 7.3 debut in Houston behind Collins and Noel.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     6.2

     Above repl.

     -7.5

     Wks 15–17

     5.8

     Games

     10

     96 bulls →
134. 134WR40Makai LemonPHI · not rostered nowSell7.0-0.5

     1. Week 7: expected 3.7, likely 0–6.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–11.6 (questionable)7
     2. Week 8: expected 7.6, likely 3.6–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–14.88
     3. Week 9: expected 6.8, likely 3.2–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–13.49
     4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
     5. Week 11: expected 6.9, likely 3.3–9.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.5–13.611
     6. Week 12: expected 7.5, likely 3.5–10.5, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–14.712
     7. Week 13: expected 7.4, likely 3.5–10.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–14.613
     8. Week 14: expected 6.9, likely 3.2–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–13.414
     9. Week 15: expected 6.3, likely 3–8.9, 10th–90th percentile 1.3–12.415
     10. Week 16: expected 6.9, likely 3.2–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–13.416
     11. Week 17: expected 6.5, likely 3.1–9.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.4–12.817

     Week 6 was 5.3, and he visited the medical tent in the third quarter with an unspecified injury (source: cbssports.com); Sleeper lists him questionable, so we mark Week 7 questionable. With DeVonta Smith back he's the third option, at 5.5 ppg. FantasyCalc's 168 is about right; sishaar should cut him.

     What changed ppg 7.5 to 7 and Week 7 questionable after the Week 6 injury.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     6.0

     Above repl.

     -7.7

     Wks 15–17

     6.6

     Games

     9.5

     commish →
135. 135RB35Emanuel WilsonSEA · @vtandaleSell3.9-3.1

     1. Week 7: expected 10.1, likely 5.4–13.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.67
     2. Week 8: expected 9.8, likely 5.3–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–18.28
     3. Week 9: expected 4.1, likely 2.2–5.5, 10th–90th percentile 1–7.69
     4. Week 10: expected 2.2, likely 1.2–3, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.110
     5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
     6. Week 12: expected 2.0, likely 1.1–2.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.612
     7. Week 13: expected 2.3, likely 1.2–3.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.213
     8. Week 14: expected 2.3, likely 1.2–3.1, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.314
     9. Week 15: expected 1.9, likely 1–2.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.515
     10. Week 16: expected 2.0, likely 1.1–2.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.716
     11. Week 17: expected 2.4, likely 1.3–3.2, 10th–90th percentile 0.6–4.417

     Fourteen carries for 52 scoreless yards in Week 6, with his snap share down to 33% as Velus Jones and Holani took work (source: rotowire.com). That's 8.3 here, and Mike Macdonald says there's a good chance Zach Charbonnet makes his debut in Week 7 against Kansas City (source: nbcsports.com). That ends his run as Seattle's lead back; we drop to Sleeper's 3.9. Sell, or cut him for a free agent.

     What changed Down from 7 to Sleeper's 3.9: Charbonnet is set to return in Week 7 and Wilson's snap share already fell to 33%; lean moves from hold to sell.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     3.6

     Above repl.

     -8.1

     Wks 15–17

     2.1

     Games

     10

     96 bulls →
136. 136QB35Jalen HurtsPHI · @arireddyHold0.0-18.5

     1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
     2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
     3. Week 9: bye or not projected9
     4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
     5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
     6. Week 12: bye or not projected12
     7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
     8. Week 14: bye or not projected14
     9. Week 15: bye or not projected15
     10. Week 16: bye or not projected16
     11. Week 17: bye or not projected17

     Missed Week 6 with a superficial blood clot in his calf after a follow-up ultrasound showed the clot had moved, and the Eagles gave no timetable (source: click2houston.com); Sleeper now tags him IR and projects nothing. He was 19.7 ppg and fading before it. Until there's a return date he's worth nothing on this board; arireddy holds and hopes for a late-season return, since there's no market for him.

     What changed Tier 4 to 8 and ppg 18.5 to 0: out with a blood clot, on IR with no timetable.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     0.0

     Above repl.

     -8.4

     Wks 15–17

     0.0

     Games

     0

     dogwater →
137. 137QB36Tyler HuntleyBAL · not rostered nowHold0.0new

     1. Week 7: bye or not projected7
     2. Week 8: bye or not projected8
     3. Week 9: bye or not projected9
     4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
     5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
     6. Week 12: bye or not projected12
     7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
     8. Week 14: bye or not projected14
     9. Week 15: bye or not projected15
     10. Week 16: bye or not projected16
     11. Week 17: bye or not projected17

     New to the board: started Weeks 5 and 6 for Baltimore with Lamar Jackson out, scoring 29.55 and 15.1 (19 of 31 for 165 yards and a TD with five carries in Week 6). Lamar is day-to-day for Week 7 (source: thebanner.com), and Sleeper projects Huntley for nothing. He's a pure handcuff: worth a start only if Lamar sits again. somickey holds him at 65.

     What changed New to the board as Lamar's backup after two starts.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     0.0

     Above repl.

     -8.4

     Wks 15–17

     0.0

     Games

     0

     somickey →
138. 138TE21Tyler HigbeeLAR · not rostered nowSell11.0+2.0

     1. Week 7: expected 10.3, likely 2.5–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.27
     2. Week 8: expected 10.3, likely 2.4–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–228
     3. Week 9: expected 11.8, likely 2.8–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–25.39
     4. Week 10: expected 11.6, likely 2.8–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–2510
     5. Week 11: bye or not projected11
     6. Week 12: expected 11.1, likely 2.6–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–23.912
     7. Week 13: expected 10.5, likely 2.5–16.7, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.613
     8. Week 14: expected 10.7, likely 2.5–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.914
     9. Week 15: expected 11.8, likely 2.8–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 0–25.415
     10. Week 16: expected 10.5, likely 2.5–16.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–22.516
     11. Week 17: expected 11.4, likely 2.7–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–24.517

     Four catches for 22 yards and a lost fumble in Week 6, 6.2 here, ending a three-game run of 22+ (source: rotoballer.com). His role exists because Terrance Ferguson is on IR, and Week 8 is the earliest Ferguson can return (source: draftsharks.com); with Ferguson active in Weeks 1-2, Higbee scored 1.2 and 0. Sleeper's 15.2 assumes the starter job all year; we're at 11, blending a usable Week 7 with backup weeks after. Sell to anyone needing a Week 7 TE.

     Why not the projection (15.2) Well under Sleeper's 15.2: Terrance Ferguson can return from IR in Week 8, and Higbee scored 1.2 and 0 when Ferguson played.

     What changed ppg up from 9 to 11 because Sleeper now projects him as the starter; still T8, with Ferguson eligible to return in Week 8.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     10.0

     Above repl.

     -8.5

     Wks 15–17

     11.2

     Games

     10

     Coked up Dakshots →
139. 139RB36Dameon PiercePHI · @SettytsHold3.5new

     1. Week 7: expected 11.1, likely 6–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–20.57
     2. Week 8: expected 7.8, likely 4.2–10.6, 10th–90th percentile 2–14.58
     3. Week 9: expected 2.1, likely 1.1–2.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.99
     4. Week 10: bye or not projected10
     5. Week 11: expected 1.9, likely 1–2.6, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.611
     6. Week 12: expected 2.2, likely 1.2–2.9, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–412
     7. Week 13: expected 2.1, likely 1.1–2.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.913
     8. Week 14: expected 2.1, likely 1.1–2.8, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.814
     9. Week 15: expected 1.8, likely 1–2.4, 10th–90th percentile 0.4–3.315
     10. Week 16: expected 2.0, likely 1.1–2.7, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.716
     11. Week 17: expected 1.9, likely 1–2.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.5–3.417

     Twelve carries for 35 yards and a TD plus four catches in the loss to Carolina, playing 61 of 64 snaps with Barkley, Bigsby and Shipley all out (source: rotowire.com). That's 17.65 here, but under 3 yards a carry, and the role ends when Barkley's hamstring heals. Sleeper projects him only for the next two weeks; we nudge that up to 3.5 for the chance Barkley's absence drags on. He's a Barkley handcuff on the same roster; at 294, hold.

     Why not the projection (2.6) 3.5, above Sleeper's 2.6: Barkley's return date is unclear, so Pierce's Week 7-8 lead role may last.

     What changed New to the board: Philadelphia's fill-in lead back while Barkley is out.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     3.2

     Above repl.

     -8.5

     Wks 15–17

     1.9

     Games

     10

     WALLAHI on the Beat →
140. 140TE22Kenyon SadiqNYJ · @ShukySell10.5-1.0

     1. Week 7: expected 11.1, likely 4.3–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–21.47
     2. Week 8: expected 10.7, likely 4.2–15.7, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–20.58
     3. Week 9: expected 10.1, likely 3.9–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–19.39
     4. Week 10: expected 10.1, likely 3.9–14.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.7–19.310
     5. Week 11: expected 10.6, likely 4.1–15.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–20.411
     6. Week 12: expected 11.8, likely 4.6–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 2–22.612
     7. Week 13: bye or not projected13
     8. Week 14: expected 9.7, likely 3.8–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–18.614
     9. Week 15: expected 11.2, likely 4.4–16.4, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–21.515
     10. Week 16: expected 10.4, likely 4.1–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 1.8–19.916
     11. Week 17: expected 9.6, likely 3.7–14.1, 10th–90th percentile 1.6–18.417

     Back from the concussion, one catch on 3 targets for 12 yards in the loss to New England, 4.45 here (source: nbcsports.com). That's 0, 0.3 and 4.45 in three weeks, 10.0 a game overall. We drop the stale Week 6 out tag and cut him to 10.5. 140 on FantasyCalc is still the draft pick; sell, or drop for Hockenson.

     Why not the projection (13.9) Well under Sleeper's 13.9: 4.45 or less in three straight games.

     What changed ppg 11.5 to 10.5 after 4.45 in his return; the Week 6 out tag is removed now that he's back.

     Tier

     8

     Per week

     9.6

     Above repl.

     -8.9

     Wks 15–17

     10.4

     Games

     10

     To infinity and bijan →