Dying on ImpactEst. 2021 · 2026 season

Week 6 boardUpdated Tue, Oct 20 · Weeks 7–17

Week 6 Player Board: Hockenson's Release Lifts the TE Bar to 18.5, Malik Nabers Jumps to 21

All 140 rostered players valued for Weeks 7–17. T.J. Hockenson's release makes the best free-agent TE worth 18.5 a game, which drops every tight end but Bowers, McBride, Likely, LaPorta and Kittle to replacement level or below. Malik Nabers rises from 17.5 to 21 after three straight 25-point games, Davante Adams is out Weeks 7–12, Jalen Hurts is on IR with a blood clot, and Josh Jacobs is back from the exempt list at 14.5. How it works

Replacement (best free agent, pts/week): QB 8.4 · RB 11.7 · WR 13.7 · TE 18.5 · K 10.3

  1. 1QBJosh AllenBUF · @SettytsHold30.0-0.5
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 29.3, likely 20.5–37.9, 10th–90th percentile 12.9–45.2
    3. Week 9: expected 26.8, likely 18.8–34.6, 10th–90th percentile 11.8–41.3
    4. Week 10: expected 30.4, likely 21.3–39.2, 10th–90th percentile 13.4–46.8
    5. Week 11: expected 33.4, likely 23.4–43.1, 10th–90th percentile 14.7–51.5
    6. Week 12: expected 28.3, likely 19.8–36.4, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–43.5
    7. Week 13: expected 29.0, likely 20.3–37.4, 10th–90th percentile 12.8–44.6
    8. Week 14: expected 30.4, likely 21.3–39.2, 10th–90th percentile 13.4–46.8
    9. Week 15: expected 31.3, likely 21.9–40.3, 10th–90th percentile 13.8–48.1
    10. Week 16: expected 28.1, likely 19.7–36.2, 10th–90th percentile 12.4–43.2
    11. Week 17: expected 33.4, likely 23.4–43, 10th–90th percentile 14.7–51.4
    Points by week, 0–55. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 23 of 33 for 255 yards and two TDs with five carries for a yard (23.9 in our scoring), his third quiet game, but he's still 32.1 ppg and the only QB here more than 18 a week above replacement. The goal-line rushing went missing in Week 6; that's the swing between his 20s and his 40s. Week 7 bye, then a full run to Week 17 with the best Weeks 15-17 projection at the position. FantasyCalc's 10,463 is the price of the clear QB1; Settyts holds.

    Why not the projection (29.2) 30 per game, above Sleeper's 29.2: 32.1 ppg through six weeks with the rushing role intact.

    What changed ppg trimmed from 30.5 to 30 after a second sub-24 game in four weeks without rushing production; still QB1.

    Tier
    1
    Per week
    27.3
    Above repl.
    +18.9
    Wks 15–17
    30.9
    Games
    10
    WALLAHI on the Beat →
  2. 2QBJared GoffDET · @ShukyBuy25.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 25.2, likely 17.6–32.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–38.8
    2. Week 8: expected 22.0, likely 15.4–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–33.9
    3. Week 9: expected 29.2, likely 20.5–37.7, 10th–90th percentile 12.9–45
    4. Week 10: expected 23.9, likely 16.8–30.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–36.9
    5. Week 11: expected 25.7, likely 18–33.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–39.6
    6. Week 12: expected 26.0, likely 18.2–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–40
    7. Week 13: expected 22.9, likely 16.1–29.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.3
    8. Week 14: expected 26.2, likely 18.3–33.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–40.3
    9. Week 15: expected 22.1, likely 15.4–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–34
    10. Week 16: expected 26.0, likely 18.2–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–40
    11. Week 17: expected 26.0, likely 18.2–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–40
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was Detroit's bye; he's 27.4 ppg with no picks through five games, and our passing first downs pay for the volume. The bye is behind him, so all 11 weeks count. I keep 25, well above Sleeper's 22.5. FantasyCalc's 4,163 is less than Lamar, Burrow and Maye, and he's worth more than all three here; buy.

    Why not the projection (22.5) 25 per game, above Sleeper's 22.5: 27.4 ppg and an offense that keeps throwing.

    What changed Bye week passed, so his per-week value rises and his position rank likely moves up.

    Tier
    2
    Per week
    25.0
    Above repl.
    +16.6
    Wks 15–17
    24.7
    Games
    11
    To infinity and bijan →
  3. 3QBBrock PurdySF · @sishaarHold27.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 24.0, likely 16.8–31, 10th–90th percentile 10.6–37
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 30.0, likely 21–38.8, 10th–90th percentile 13.2–46.3
    4. Week 10: expected 30.6, likely 21.4–39.4, 10th–90th percentile 13.4–47.1
    5. Week 11: expected 25.1, likely 17.5–32.3, 10th–90th percentile 11–38.6
    6. Week 12: expected 25.7, likely 18–33.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–39.6
    7. Week 13: expected 28.9, likely 20.2–37.2, 10th–90th percentile 12.7–44.4
    8. Week 14: expected 25.4, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.1
    9. Week 15: expected 27.7, likely 19.4–35.7, 10th–90th percentile 12.2–42.7
    10. Week 16: expected 26.3, likely 18.4–33.9, 10th–90th percentile 11.6–40.4
    11. Week 17: expected 26.5, likely 18.6–34.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.7–40.8
    Points by week, 0–50. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Monday night was 21 of 29 for 264 yards and a TD plus five carries for 28 yards (23.35 in our scoring) against Washington; the cached stat feed caught only part of that game, so ignore the 12.3 some tools show. He's 28.8 ppg, second only to Allen, though his last two games (20.7, 23.35) are his quietest. Week 8 bye. FantasyCalc's 6,652 is fair for the QB2 in our scoring; sishaar holds.

    Why not the projection (26.3) 27 per game, above Sleeper's 26.3: 28.8 ppg through six games.

    What changed Position rank may move as Lamar and Burrow shift around him; 27 per game is unchanged after a 23.35 on Monday night.

    Tier
    2
    Per week
    24.6
    Above repl.
    +16.2
    Wks 15–17
    26.8
    Games
    10
    commish →
  4. 4QBBryce YoungCAR · @ShukyBuy24.5+0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 24.8, likely 17.3–31.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–38.1
    2. Week 8: expected 25.4, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.1
    3. Week 9: expected 23.1, likely 16.1–29.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.5
    4. Week 10: expected 25.4, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.1
    5. Week 11: expected 24.7, likely 17.3–31.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–38
    6. Week 12: expected 25.4, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.2
    7. Week 13: expected 22.0, likely 15.4–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–33.9
    8. Week 14: expected 25.5, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.2
    9. Week 15: expected 25.5, likely 17.9–32.9, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.3
    10. Week 16: expected 25.0, likely 17.5–32.3, 10th–90th percentile 11–38.5
    11. Week 17: expected 22.7, likely 15.9–29.3, 10th–90th percentile 10–34.9
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 20 of 39 for 281 yards and two TDs at Philadelphia (25 in our scoring), so he's 28.4 ppg with no bye left. I raise him from 24 to 24.5, still well under his pace and over Sleeper's 22.1, and with no bye he's one of the highest per-week values at the position. FantasyCalc's 3,223 prices him as a mid QB2; he's the best QB buy on the board, and Shuky should keep him.

    Why not the projection (22.1) 24.5 per game, above Sleeper's 22.1: 28.4 ppg and the passing volume is real.

    What changed ppg up from 24 to 24.5 after another 25-point game.

    Tier
    2
    Per week
    24.5
    Above repl.
    +16.1
    Wks 15–17
    24.4
    Games
    11
    To infinity and bijan →
  5. 5QBJoe BurrowCIN · @somickeySell23.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 24.4, likely 17.1–31.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.5
    2. Week 8: expected 24.5, likely 17.2–31.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–37.7
    3. Week 9: expected 21.3, likely 14.9–27.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–32.8
    4. Week 10: expected 23.6, likely 16.5–30.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–36.3
    5. Week 11: expected 27.8, likely 19.5–35.9, 10th–90th percentile 12.3–42.9
    6. Week 12: expected 23.7, likely 16.6–30.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–36.6
    7. Week 13: expected 22.4, likely 15.7–28.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–34.5
    8. Week 14: expected 21.7, likely 15.2–28.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.5
    9. Week 15: expected 21.9, likely 15.3–28.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.7
    10. Week 16: expected 24.1, likely 16.9–31.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.6–37.2
    11. Week 17: expected 23.1, likely 16.2–29.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–35.7
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was Cincinnati's bye; he's 25 ppg with three straight 26+ games (26.5, 29.15, 31.3) since Ja'Marr Chase got healthy. With the bye behind him, all 11 weeks count, so he stays tier 2 at 23.5, a point over Sleeper's 22.8. FantasyCalc's 6,584 is the third-highest QB price, more than Goff (4,163) or Young (3,223), who score more here; somickey should sell, but only for a QB back, since Willis, McKee and an injured Mayfield are behind him.

    Why not the projection (22.8) 23.5 per game, above Sleeper's 22.8: 25 ppg with Chase back.

    What changed Bye week passed, so he now has all 11 weeks projected; position rank likely rises.

    Tier
    2
    Per week
    23.5
    Above repl.
    +15.1
    Wks 15–17
    23.0
    Games
    11
    somickey →
  6. 6QBPatrick MahomesKC · @sishaarHold23.5-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 19.5, likely 11.7–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–33
    2. Week 8: expected 22.2, likely 15.6–28.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–34.2
    3. Week 9: expected 24.8, likely 17.4–32, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–38.2
    4. Week 10: expected 22.2, likely 15.5–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–34.1
    5. Week 11: expected 28.6, likely 20–36.8, 10th–90th percentile 12.6–44
    6. Week 12: expected 24.6, likely 17.2–31.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–37.8
    7. Week 13: expected 21.5, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.2
    8. Week 14: expected 24.5, likely 17.2–31.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–37.7
    9. Week 15: expected 23.2, likely 16.2–29.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–35.7
    10. Week 16: expected 23.0, likely 16.1–29.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.4
    11. Week 17: expected 24.0, likely 16.8–30.9, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–36.9
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 23 of 30 for 272 yards, no TDs and a pick with five carries for 16 yards (15.25 in our scoring), his worst game of the season. He's still 24.6 ppg and has no bye left, so all 11 weeks count, which keeps him tier 2 on per-week value. I trim him from 24 to 23.5, near Sleeper's 23.2. FantasyCalc's 5,083 is fair; sishaar holds.

    What changed ppg trimmed from 24 to 23.5 after a TD-less Week 6; position rank likely slips behind Goff, Young and Lawrence.

    Tier
    2
    Per week
    23.5
    Above repl.
    +15.1
    Wks 15–17
    23.4
    Games
    11
    commish →
  7. 7QBLamar JacksonBAL · @nikashSell26.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 13.3, likely 0–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–36.4 (questionable)
    2. Week 8: expected 26.6, likely 18.6–34.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.7–40.9
    3. Week 9: expected 24.7, likely 17.3–31.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–38
    4. Week 10: expected 26.1, likely 18.3–33.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–40.3
    5. Week 11: expected 25.7, likely 18–33.1, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–39.5
    6. Week 12: expected 26.1, likely 18.3–33.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–40.2
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 26.2, likely 18.4–33.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–40.4
    9. Week 15: expected 26.0, likely 18.2–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–40
    10. Week 16: expected 25.4, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.1
    11. Week 17: expected 27.0, likely 18.9–34.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–41.5
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Missed Weeks 5 and 6 with the ankle while Tyler Huntley started, and he's day-to-day for Week 7 (source: thebanner.com). I make Week 7 a coin flip and keep 26 per game, under Sleeper's 27.4, because an ankle that has cost two games takes away some of the running that drives his value in our scoring. He was 25.4 ppg in four games before it. FantasyCalc's 7,610 makes him the second-priciest QB, ahead of Purdy, Burrow and Goff, who are worth as much or more here; nikash should listen to offers.

    Why not the projection (27.4) 26 per game, under Sleeper's 27.4: a sore ankle limits the rushing, and he was 25.4 ppg before it.

    What changed Week 6 coin flip passed (he missed it); Week 7 is now the coin flip, and the lean moves to sell because the market (7,610) prices him above healthier QBs.

    Tier
    2
    Per week
    22.5
    Above repl.
    +14.1
    Wks 15–17
    26.1
    Games
    9.5
    The Naughty Betas →
  8. 8QBTrevor LawrenceJAX · @vtandaleBuy24.5+1.5
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 24.1, likely 16.9–31.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.6–37.1
    3. Week 9: expected 23.1, likely 16.1–29.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.5
    4. Week 10: expected 24.3, likely 17–31.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.5
    5. Week 11: expected 24.4, likely 17.1–31.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.6
    6. Week 12: expected 24.3, likely 17–31.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.5
    7. Week 13: expected 24.4, likely 17.1–31.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.6
    8. Week 14: expected 23.4, likely 16.4–30.2, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–36
    9. Week 15: expected 23.6, likely 16.5–30.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.4–36.4
    10. Week 16: expected 25.9, likely 18.2–33.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–39.9
    11. Week 17: expected 27.0, likely 18.9–34.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–41.5
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 24 of 41 for 306 yards, four TDs and a pick (34.15 in our scoring), his best game of the season and his third 25+ game in four weeks. Jacksonville is winning and still throwing, so I raise him from 23 to 24.5, still under Sleeper's 26.6. Week 7 bye, then 28.2 and 29.3 projected in Weeks 16-17, the best playoff finish of anyone outside Allen. FantasyCalc's 4,992 is below Burrow and Lamar for a similar playoff QB; buy.

    Why not the projection (26.6) 24.5 per game, under Sleeper's 26.6: 23.8 ppg so far, with a 9.35 in the mix, so I don't go all the way to the projection.

    What changed ppg up from 23 to 24.5 after a 34.15 in Week 6; lean moves to buy at 4,992.

    Tier
    2
    Per week
    22.2
    Above repl.
    +13.8
    Wks 15–17
    25.5
    Games
    10
    96 bulls →
  9. 9QBDrake MayeNE · @sishaarHold24.0+1.5
    1. Week 7: expected 24.5, likely 15.3–33.4, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–41
    2. Week 8: expected 27.0, likely 16.9–36.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.1–45.3
    3. Week 9: expected 24.2, likely 15.1–32.9, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–40.5
    4. Week 10: expected 27.4, likely 17.1–37.3, 10th–90th percentile 8.2–45.9
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 23.5, likely 14.7–32.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.1–39.4
    7. Week 13: expected 24.1, likely 15.1–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 7.2–40.4
    8. Week 14: expected 21.0, likely 13.1–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–35.1
    9. Week 15: expected 22.1, likely 13.8–30.1, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–37
    10. Week 16: expected 24.3, likely 15.2–33.1, 10th–90th percentile 7.3–40.7
    11. Week 17: expected 21.9, likely 13.7–29.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–36.7
    Points by week, 0–50. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 18 of 32 for 235 yards and three TDs plus four carries for 24 yards (30.35 in our scoring), his third straight 27+ game after a 3.35 in Week 3. The turnovers have stopped and the rushing is back, so I raise him from 22.5 to 24, still under Sleeper's 25. The range stays wide. Week 11 bye. FantasyCalc's 6,235 is now close to fair for a tier-2 QB, so the sell becomes a hold; sishaar has Purdy and Mahomes and can afford to keep him.

    Why not the projection (25.0) 24 per game, under Sleeper's 25: three straight big games, but Weeks 1-3 averaged 10.1.

    What changed Tier 3 to 2 and ppg 22.5 to 24 after a third straight 27+ game; lean moves from sell to hold.

    Tier
    2
    Per week
    21.8
    Above repl.
    +13.4
    Wks 15–17
    22.8
    Games
    10
    commish →
  10. 10QBJayden DanielsWAS · @tsinghHold23.0+0.5
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 21.8, likely 15.2–28.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.5
    3. Week 9: expected 20.7, likely 14.5–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–31.9
    4. Week 10: expected 24.8, likely 17.3–32, 10th–90th percentile 10.9–38.2
    5. Week 11: expected 24.3, likely 17–31.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.4
    6. Week 12: expected 27.7, likely 19.4–35.7, 10th–90th percentile 12.2–42.6
    7. Week 13: expected 24.3, likely 17–31.4, 10th–90th percentile 10.7–37.5
    8. Week 14: expected 23.5, likely 16.4–30.3, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–36.1
    9. Week 15: expected 21.4, likely 15–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–33
    10. Week 16: expected 20.2, likely 14.2–26.1, 10th–90th percentile 8.9–31.2
    11. Week 17: expected 21.6, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.2
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Monday night was 29 of 40 for 300 yards and two TDs at San Francisco (26.7 in our scoring); the cached stat feed caught only part of that game, so ignore the 5.05 some tools show. He's 25.6 ppg in four games, but Week 6 had only four carries for 10 yards, and the running is what separates him in our scoring. I raise him from 22.5 to 23, over Sleeper's 21. Week 7 bye. A twice-dislocated elbow and four sacks Monday keep the risk real. Fair at 3,852; tsingh holds.

    Why not the projection (21.0) 23 per game, above Sleeper's 21: 25.6 ppg in four healthy games.

    What changed ppg up from 22.5 to 23 after a 26.7 on Monday night.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    20.9
    Above repl.
    +12.5
    Wks 15–17
    21.1
    Games
    10
    Tua deez nuts →
  11. 11QBCaleb WilliamsCHI · @PredjsHold22.5-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 21.6, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.2
    2. Week 8: expected 19.3, likely 11.6–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.7
    3. Week 9: expected 21.9, likely 15.3–28.2, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.7
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 22.0, likely 15.4–28.4, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–33.9
    6. Week 12: expected 25.5, likely 17.9–32.9, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.3
    7. Week 13: expected 20.1, likely 14.1–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–30.9
    8. Week 14: expected 25.2, likely 17.6–32.5, 10th–90th percentile 11.1–38.7
    9. Week 15: expected 22.1, likely 15.5–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–34
    10. Week 16: expected 22.1, likely 15.5–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–34
    11. Week 17: expected 25.5, likely 17.9–32.9, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.3
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Back from injury in Week 6: 30 of 36 for 305 yards and a TD against Atlanta (19.95 in our scoring), efficient but without the rushing. I trim him from 23 to 22.5, in line with Sleeper. His value per week is tier 3, but I keep him tier 2, one up, because Weeks 14-17 project at 22-25.5, near the top of the board. Week 10 bye. FantasyCalc's 5,033 is fair for a healthy starter; Predjs holds.

    What changed ppg trimmed from 23 to 22.5 after a quiet return game; he's healthy now, so position rank likely moves.

    Tier
    2
    Per week
    20.5
    Above repl.
    +12.1
    Wks 15–17
    23.2
    Games
    10
    Coked up Dakshots →
  12. 12QBC.J. StroudHOU · @nikashBuy22.0+1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 22.9, likely 16.1–29.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.3
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 21.6, likely 15.1–27.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.3
    4. Week 10: expected 20.8, likely 14.5–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–32
    5. Week 11: expected 22.5, likely 15.7–29, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–34.6
    6. Week 12: expected 21.5, likely 15–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.1
    7. Week 13: expected 21.9, likely 15.4–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–33.8
    8. Week 14: expected 26.1, likely 18.3–33.7, 10th–90th percentile 11.5–40.2
    9. Week 15: expected 20.3, likely 14.2–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 8.9–31.3
    10. Week 16: expected 20.5, likely 14.3–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 9–31.5
    11. Week 17: expected 22.3, likely 15.6–28.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–34.4
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 24 of 34 for 312 yards, three TDs and a pick (30.05 in our scoring), his third 24+ game in a row with Nico Collins healthy (30.25, 24.45, 30.05). I raise him from 21 to 22, well over Sleeper's 20. Week 8 bye; Week 14 projects 23.8. FantasyCalc's 2,778 is cheaper than Shough and Stafford for a better trend; buy.

    Why not the projection (20.0) 22 per game, above Sleeper's 20: 28.3 ppg over his last three.

    What changed ppg up from 21 to 22 after a third straight 24+ game; position rank likely rises.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    20.0
    Above repl.
    +11.6
    Wks 15–17
    21.0
    Games
    10
    The Naughty Betas →
  13. 13QBDak PrescottDAL · @PredjsHold22.0-1.5
    1. Week 7: expected 20.2, likely 14.1–26, 10th–90th percentile 8.9–31.1
    2. Week 8: expected 27.1, likely 19–35, 10th–90th percentile 11.9–41.8
    3. Week 9: expected 23.0, likely 16.1–29.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.4
    4. Week 10: expected 21.2, likely 14.8–27.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–32.6
    5. Week 11: expected 23.4, likely 16.4–30.2, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–36.1
    6. Week 12: expected 20.9, likely 14.6–27, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.2
    7. Week 13: expected 20.1, likely 14.1–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–30.9
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected
    9. Week 15: expected 19.6, likely 11.8–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.2
    10. Week 16: expected 20.8, likely 14.6–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32
    11. Week 17: expected 23.3, likely 16.3–30.1, 10th–90th percentile 10.3–35.9
    Points by week, 0–45. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 34 of 54 for 258 yards, a TD and two picks (15.9 in our scoring), his second straight sub-18 game with four INTs in two weeks, each costing 2 here. The volume keeps paying through our passing first downs, but the efficiency is gone, so I cut him from 23.5 to 22, near Sleeper's 21.5. Week 14 bye, in the middle of the stretch. Fair at 3,921; Predjs starts him alongside Caleb.

    Why not the projection (21.5) 22 per game against Sleeper's 21.5: the volume holds even with the picks.

    What changed Tier 2 to 3 and ppg 23.5 to 22 after two straight sub-18 games with four interceptions.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    20.0
    Above repl.
    +11.6
    Wks 15–17
    21.2
    Games
    10
    Coked up Dakshots →
  14. 14QBJordan LoveGB · @tsinghHold22.0+0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 24.5, likely 17.2–31.6, 10th–90th percentile 10.8–37.7
    2. Week 8: expected 20.1, likely 14.1–25.9, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–31
    3. Week 9: expected 21.0, likely 14.7–27, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.3
    4. Week 10: expected 19.2, likely 11.5–25.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.4
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 19.4, likely 11.6–26, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.8
    7. Week 13: expected 22.2, likely 15.5–28.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–34.2
    8. Week 14: expected 22.4, likely 15.7–28.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.9–34.5
    9. Week 15: expected 25.7, likely 18–33.2, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–39.6
    10. Week 16: expected 22.9, likely 16–29.5, 10th–90th percentile 10.1–35.2
    11. Week 17: expected 22.2, likely 15.6–28.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.8–34.2
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 23 of 41 for 276 yards, a TD, a pick and a rushing TD (25.5 in our scoring), his third straight 25+ game. Better protection is holding, so I move him from 21.5 to 22, above Sleeper's 21.2. Week 11 bye. FantasyCalc's 3,535 is fair; tsingh starts him alongside Daniels.

    Why not the projection (21.2) 22 per game, above Sleeper's 21.2: 22.9 ppg and three strong games in a row.

    What changed ppg up from 21.5 to 22 after a third straight 25+ game.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    20.0
    Above repl.
    +11.6
    Wks 15–17
    23.6
    Games
    10
    Tua deez nuts →
  15. 15QBMatthew StaffordLAR · @vtandaleHold22.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 23.1, likely 16.2–29.8, 10th–90th percentile 10.2–35.6
    2. Week 8: expected 20.8, likely 14.5–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–32
    3. Week 9: expected 25.4, likely 17.8–32.8, 10th–90th percentile 11.2–39.1
    4. Week 10: expected 25.8, likely 18.1–33.3, 10th–90th percentile 11.4–39.8
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 21.4, likely 15–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–33
    7. Week 13: expected 19.4, likely 11.6–26, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–32.7
    8. Week 14: expected 20.0, likely 14–25.8, 10th–90th percentile 8.8–30.8
    9. Week 15: expected 23.8, likely 16.6–30.7, 10th–90th percentile 10.5–36.6
    10. Week 16: expected 18.9, likely 11.4–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32
    11. Week 17: expected 21.7, likely 15.2–28.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.5
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 25 of 33 for 222 yards and two TDs, no picks and no carries (19.2 in our scoring), a steadier game than his usual swings. He's 23 ppg, but with no rushing floor the range stays wide (6.95 to 34.65). I keep 22, over Sleeper's 20.1. Week 11 bye, and Weeks 15 and 17 project under 20. Fair at 3,913; still the QB vtandale should shop first.

    Why not the projection (20.1) 22 per game, above Sleeper's 20.1: 23 ppg through six games.

    What changed Position rank likely moves as the QBs around him shift; 22 per game is unchanged.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    20.0
    Above repl.
    +11.6
    Wks 15–17
    21.5
    Games
    10
    96 bulls →
  16. 16QBTyler ShoughNO · @vtandaleHold21.0+0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 19.9, likely 11.9–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.6
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 20.0, likely 12–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.8
    4. Week 10: expected 19.7, likely 11.8–26.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.3
    5. Week 11: expected 22.1, likely 15.5–28.5, 10th–90th percentile 9.7–34.1
    6. Week 12: expected 21.5, likely 15–27.7, 10th–90th percentile 9.4–33.1
    7. Week 13: expected 21.5, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.2
    8. Week 14: expected 19.6, likely 11.8–26.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.1
    9. Week 15: expected 21.5, likely 15.1–27.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.5–33.1
    10. Week 16: expected 25.8, likely 18–33.3, 10th–90th percentile 11.3–39.7
    11. Week 17: expected 19.0, likely 11.4–25.4, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 bounced back from the 1.5: 16 of 30 for 144 yards and three TDs plus five carries for 32 yards and a rushing TD (31.45 in our scoring). The TDs saved a thin passing day, but the rushing is new and it pays here. I move him from 20.5 to 21, slightly over Sleeper's 20.4. Week 8 bye. FantasyCalc's 3,762 is fair; vtandale holds.

    Why not the projection (20.4) 21 per game, above Sleeper's 20.4: 22.5 ppg with the rushing now showing up.

    What changed ppg up from 20.5 to 21 after a 31.45 rebound with a rushing TD.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    19.1
    Above repl.
    +10.7
    Wks 15–17
    22.1
    Games
    10
    96 bulls →
  17. 17QBKyler MurrayMIN · @ShukyBuy18.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 21.9, likely 15.3–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.7
    2. Week 8: expected 20.9, likely 14.6–26.9, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.1
    3. Week 9: expected 17.9, likely 10.7–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.2
    4. Week 10: expected 17.9, likely 10.7–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.3
    5. Week 11: expected 16.4, likely 9.8–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.7
    6. Week 12: expected 15.8, likely 9.5–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.7
    7. Week 13: expected 16.7, likely 10–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.2
    8. Week 14: expected 16.7, likely 10–22.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.2
    9. Week 15: expected 21.0, likely 14.7–27, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.3
    10. Week 16: expected 20.8, likely 14.5–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 9.1–32
    11. Week 17: expected 18.0, likely 10.8–24.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.4
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was Minnesota's bye; his last three games were 14.5, 16.35 and 24.05, with the 10-carry Week 5 the role we want in our scoring (+0.15 per carry plus rushing first downs). The bye is done, so all 11 weeks count, which lifts him just over the tier-3 line at 18.5, under Sleeper's 20.6. FantasyCalc's 1,722 is cheap for a QB starting on a winning team; buy.

    Why not the projection (20.6) 18.5 per game, under Sleeper's 20.6: 18.3 ppg in his three healthy games, on a run-first team.

    What changed Tier 4 to 3: the bye passed, so his per-week value now clears 10 above replacement.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    18.5
    Above repl.
    +10.1
    Wks 15–17
    19.9
    Games
    11
    To infinity and bijan →
  18. 18QBAaron RodgersPIT · @skollurBuy20.0+0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 23.0, likely 14.4–31.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.9–38.5
    2. Week 8: expected 19.4, likely 9.7–27.6, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–36.1
    3. Week 9: bye or not projected
    4. Week 10: expected 20.5, likely 12.8–28, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–34.4
    5. Week 11: expected 19.2, likely 9.6–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–35.7
    6. Week 12: expected 18.4, likely 9.2–26.2, 10th–90th percentile 3–34.2
    7. Week 13: expected 20.8, likely 13–28.3, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–34.8
    8. Week 14: expected 19.1, likely 9.5–27.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–35.5
    9. Week 15: expected 20.1, likely 12.6–27.4, 10th–90th percentile 6–33.7
    10. Week 16: expected 18.7, likely 9.3–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–34.8
    11. Week 17: expected 21.4, likely 13.4–29.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–35.9
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 33 of 49 for 253 yards, two TDs and a pick (20.9 in our scoring), his fifth straight game over 16 since the Week 2 3.0. Pittsburgh keeps throwing and he's 21 ppg, so I raise him from 19.5 to 20, over Sleeper's 18.1. No rushing, so the swings stay wide. Week 9 bye. FantasyCalc's 1,842 is cheap for a tier-3 QB in superflex; buy.

    Why not the projection (18.1) 20 per game, above Sleeper's 18.1: 21 ppg and five straight games over 16.

    What changed ppg up from 19.5 to 20 after another 20+ game.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    18.2
    Above repl.
    +9.8
    Wks 15–17
    20.1
    Games
    10
    JSN’s backpack →
  19. 19QBKirk CousinsLV · @arireddyHold21.5+0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 19.8, likely 11.9–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.4
    2. Week 8: expected 22.7, likely 15.9–29.3, 10th–90th percentile 10–35
    3. Week 9: expected 20.9, likely 14.7–27, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.2
    4. Week 10: expected 19.8, likely 11.9–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.5
    5. Week 11: expected 20.0, likely 12–26.8, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.8
    6. Week 12: expected 20.9, likely 14.7–27, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.2
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 21.7, likely 15.2–28, 10th–90th percentile 9.6–33.5
    9. Week 15: expected 19.9, likely 12–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.7
    10. Week 16: expected 11.5, likely 0–22.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–31.5 (questionable)
    11. Week 17: expected 13.3, likely 0–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 0–36.5 (questionable)
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 23 of 41 for 313 yards, two TDs and a pick against Buffalo (25.05 in our scoring), with Kubiak reaffirming him as the starter over Fernando Mendoza beforehand (source: newsweek.com). He's 23.5 ppg, so I raise him from 21 to 21.5, but the No. 1 pick waiting behind him keeps Weeks 16-17 as coin flips. Week 13 bye. FantasyCalc's 2,071 is a fair-to-cheap price for a tier-3 starter; arireddy holds.

    Why not the projection (20.4) 21.5 per game, above Sleeper's 20.4: 23.5 ppg as the Raiders' starter.

    What changed Tier 4 to 3 after a 25.05 against Buffalo and a reaffirmed starting job; ppg up from 21 to 21.5.

    Tier
    3
    Per week
    17.3
    Above repl.
    +8.9
    Wks 15–17
    14.9
    Games
    9
    dogwater →
  20. 20QBJacoby BrissettARI · @ShukyHold18.5-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 17.1, likely 8.5–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–31.8
    2. Week 8: expected 21.2, likely 13.2–28.9, 10th–90th percentile 6.4–35.5
    3. Week 9: expected 16.3, likely 8.1–23.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–30.3
    4. Week 10: expected 15.9, likely 8–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–29.6
    5. Week 11: expected 16.8, likely 8.4–24, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–31.3
    6. Week 12: expected 22.5, likely 14–30.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.7–37.6
    7. Week 13: expected 17.1, likely 8.6–24.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–31.9
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected
    9. Week 15: expected 19.2, likely 9.6–27.3, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–35.7
    10. Week 16: expected 18.7, likely 9.3–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 3–34.8
    11. Week 17: expected 20.7, likely 12.9–28.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–34.7
    Points by week, 0–40. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 24 of 35 for 218 yards, no TDs and a pick (11 in our scoring), so the boom-bust pattern holds: 22.65, 8.4, 32, 12.9, 31.95, 11. A losing Arizona team keeps throwing, so 18.5 is fair, close to Sleeper's 18.7, but the weekly range is the widest of any starter. Week 14 bye. At 1,680 he's Shuky's fourth QB and a fine SUPER_FLEX bye fill-in.

    What changed ppg trimmed from 19 to 18.5 after an 11-point game; position rank likely slips.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    16.9
    Above repl.
    +8.5
    Wks 15–17
    19.5
    Games
    10
    To infinity and bijan →
  21. 21QBMichael PenixATL · @skollurHold18.0+1.0
    1. Week 7: expected 18.8, likely 11.3–25.2, 10th–90th percentile 6.2–31.7
    2. Week 8: expected 17.9, likely 10.8–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.3
    3. Week 9: expected 17.8, likely 10.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.1
    4. Week 10: expected 16.1, likely 9.7–21.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.3
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 15.1, likely 9.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.6
    7. Week 13: expected 20.9, likely 14.6–27, 10th–90th percentile 9.2–32.2
    8. Week 14: expected 16.7, likely 10–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.1
    9. Week 15: expected 21.0, likely 14.7–27.1, 10th–90th percentile 9.3–32.4
    10. Week 16: expected 17.9, likely 10.7–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.3
    11. Week 17: expected 17.8, likely 10.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.1
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Played through the rib injury in Week 6 (source: fieldlevelmedia.com): 19 of 33 for 225 yards and three TDs, but a lost fumble cost 4 (24.1 in our scoring). He's 19.1 ppg in four games back from the ACL, and Sleeper still tags him questionable, so the ribs are worth watching. I raise him from 17 to 18, over Sleeper's 17.4. Week 11 bye. At 1,308 he's a fair-priced SUPER_FLEX hold for skollur.

    Why not the projection (17.4) 18 per game, above Sleeper's 17.4: 19.1 ppg since returning.

    What changed ppg up from 17 to 18 after a three-TD game; the Week 6 questionable tag is gone because he played.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    16.4
    Above repl.
    +8.0
    Wks 15–17
    18.9
    Games
    10
    JSN’s backpack →
  22. 22QBGeno SmithNYJ · @skollurHold16.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 18.1, likely 10.9–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.6
    2. Week 8: expected 17.9, likely 10.7–24, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.3
    3. Week 9: expected 14.7, likely 8.8–19.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.8
    4. Week 10: expected 16.4, likely 9.8–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.7
    5. Week 11: expected 15.9, likely 9.6–21.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–26.9
    6. Week 12: expected 19.1, likely 11.5–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.3
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 14.4, likely 8.6–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.3
    9. Week 15: expected 19.8, likely 11.9–26.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.5
    10. Week 16: expected 15.2, likely 9.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.7
    11. Week 17: expected 13.7, likely 8.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–23.2
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 20 of 30 for 252 yards, a TD and a pick (17.3 in our scoring), right at his 17.2 ppg. A run-first, low-volume Jets offense caps him; I keep 16.5, under Sleeper's 17.9. Week 13 bye. FantasyCalc's 211 treats him as a free agent, but he's worth about 7 a week above replacement here; skollur keeps him as a SUPER_FLEX body.

    Why not the projection (17.9) 16.5 per game, under Sleeper's 17.9: 17.2 ppg on a low-volume offense.

    What changed Position rank likely moves with the shuffling around him; 16.5 per game is unchanged.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    15.0
    Above repl.
    +6.6
    Wks 15–17
    16.2
    Games
    10
    JSN’s backpack →
  23. 23QBMalik WillisMIA · @somickeyBuy15.0–
    1. Week 7: expected 14.5, likely 8.7–19.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.5
    2. Week 8: expected 14.0, likely 8.4–18.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.7
    3. Week 9: expected 17.5, likely 10.5–23.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.5
    4. Week 10: expected 15.2, likely 9.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.7
    5. Week 11: expected 14.9, likely 9–20, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.2
    6. Week 12: expected 15.1, likely 9.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.5
    7. Week 13: expected 13.4, likely 8–17.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–22.6
    8. Week 14: expected 15.5, likely 9.3–20.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.2
    9. Week 15: expected 15.0, likely 9–20, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.3
    10. Week 16: expected 14.6, likely 8.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.7
    11. Week 17: expected 15.0, likely 9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.3
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was Miami's bye; he's 14.3 ppg, and Jeff Hafley said there's no thought of benching him (source: rotoballer.com). The rushing gives him a floor, and the bye is behind him, so all 11 weeks count. I keep 15, well under Sleeper's 18.7. FantasyCalc's 91 treats him as a free agent, but a starting QB is worth about 6.6 a week above replacement in a league with three QB slots; buy if anyone will sell, and somickey should keep him.

    Why not the projection (18.7) 15 per game, well under Sleeper's 18.7: 14.3 ppg so far.

    What changed Bye passed, so his per-week value rises; lean moves to buy at a 91 market price.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    15.0
    Above repl.
    +6.6
    Wks 15–17
    14.9
    Games
    11
    somickey →
  24. 24QBSam DarnoldSEA · @SettytsHold16.5-0.5
    1. Week 7: expected 14.7, likely 8.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.8
    2. Week 8: expected 17.0, likely 10.2–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.8
    3. Week 9: expected 19.9, likely 11.9–26.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.6–33.6
    4. Week 10: expected 18.1, likely 10.8–24.2, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.6
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 15.4, likely 9.2–20.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26
    7. Week 13: expected 18.4, likely 11.1–24.7, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–31.1
    8. Week 14: expected 17.0, likely 10.2–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.8
    9. Week 15: expected 15.1, likely 9.1–20.3, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.6
    10. Week 16: expected 14.2, likely 8.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–23.9
    11. Week 17: expected 15.0, likely 9–20.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.3
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 27 of 51 for 278 yards, no TDs and two picks (16.2 in our scoring); 51 attempts kept the first downs coming, but the picks cost 2 each. Since the glute injury he's 33.5, 17.35, 11.7 and 16.2. I trim him from 17 to 16.5, under Sleeper's 19. Week 11 bye. Fair at 1,504; Settyts can play him in SUPER_FLEX in Allen's Week 7 bye.

    Why not the projection (19.0) 16.5 per game, under Sleeper's 19: 15.9 ppg and no TD passes in Week 6.

    What changed ppg trimmed from 17 to 16.5 after two more picks.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    15.0
    Above repl.
    +6.6
    Wks 15–17
    14.8
    Games
    10
    WALLAHI on the Beat →
  25. 25QBBo NixDEN · @nikashSell16.0-1.5
    1. Week 7: expected 18.6, likely 11.2–25, 10th–90th percentile 6.1–31.5
    2. Week 8: expected 13.9, likely 8.3–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.5
    3. Week 9: expected 14.1, likely 8.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–23.9
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 17.0, likely 10.2–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.8
    6. Week 12: expected 15.2, likely 9.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.7
    7. Week 13: expected 18.1, likely 10.9–24.3, 10th–90th percentile 6–30.6
    8. Week 14: expected 15.8, likely 9.5–21.2, 10th–90th percentile 5.2–26.7
    9. Week 15: expected 17.0, likely 10.2–22.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.8
    10. Week 16: expected 15.6, likely 9.3–20.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.3
    11. Week 17: expected 14.4, likely 8.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.4
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 17 of 27 for 107 yards, no TDs and four runs for 2 yards (6.65 in our scoring), his second straight game under 7. He's 13.7 ppg, the passing doesn't stretch defenses, and the rushing floor has disappeared. I cut him from 17.5 to 16, far below Sleeper's 20.7. Week 10 bye. FantasyCalc's 2,060 is more than a low-end QB3 is worth; nikash should sell.

    Why not the projection (20.7) 16 per game, far under Sleeper's 20.7: 13.7 ppg and two straight games under 7.

    What changed ppg cut from 17.5 to 16 after another 6.65.

    Tier
    4
    Per week
    14.5
    Above repl.
    +6.1
    Wks 15–17
    15.7
    Games
    10
    The Naughty Betas →
  26. 26QBCam WardTEN · @tsinghHold14.0-2.0
    1. Week 7: expected 12.8, likely 7.7–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–21.6
    2. Week 8: expected 13.5, likely 8.1–18.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–22.8
    3. Week 9: bye or not projected
    4. Week 10: expected 12.1, likely 7.3–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 4–20.4
    5. Week 11: expected 15.2, likely 9.1–20.4, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.8
    6. Week 12: expected 12.1, likely 7.2–16.2, 10th–90th percentile 4–20.4
    7. Week 13: expected 16.2, likely 9.7–21.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.4
    8. Week 14: expected 16.2, likely 9.7–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.3
    9. Week 15: expected 13.7, likely 8.2–18.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–23.2
    10. Week 16: expected 14.9, likely 8.9–20, 10th–90th percentile 4.9–25.2
    11. Week 17: expected 13.3, likely 8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–22.4
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 11 of 22 for 102 yards, a TD and a pick (9.25 in our scoring), his second straight game under 10. He's 14.5 ppg on a Tennessee offense that can't sustain drives, and the rushing barely shows up. I cut him from 16 to 14, far under Sleeper's 18.4, which drops him to tier 5. Week 9 bye. At 303 he's a SUPER_FLEX body for tsingh, not a starter.

    Why not the projection (18.4) 14 per game, far under Sleeper's 18.4: 14.5 ppg and two straight games under 10.

    What changed Tier 4 to 5 and ppg 16 to 14 after a second straight single-digit game.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.7
    Above repl.
    +4.3
    Wks 15–17
    14.0
    Games
    10
    Tua deez nuts →
  27. 27QBDaniel JonesIND · @arireddyHold14.0+1.5
    1. Week 7: expected 11.5, likely 6.9–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 3.8–19.4
    2. Week 8: expected 12.6, likely 7.6–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–21.3
    3. Week 9: expected 16.0, likely 9.6–21.4, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27
    4. Week 10: expected 16.8, likely 10.1–22.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.4
    5. Week 11: expected 14.0, likely 8.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.6
    6. Week 12: expected 14.6, likely 8.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.7
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 12.6, likely 7.6–16.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–21.4
    9. Week 15: expected 14.6, likely 8.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.7
    10. Week 16: expected 14.1, likely 8.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–23.8
    11. Week 17: expected 13.0, likely 7.8–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–22
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 22 of 42 for 269 yards, a TD and two picks plus three carries for 30 yards (18.8 in our scoring), his best game of the season. He's 13.2 ppg, and the turnovers are back after one clean week, but the volume is real. I raise him from 12.5 to 14, still under Sleeper's 15.4. Week 13 bye. At 209 there's nothing to sell; arireddy holds him as a bye fill-in.

    Why not the projection (15.4) 14 per game, under Sleeper's 15.4: 13.2 ppg with too many turnovers.

    What changed ppg up from 12.5 to 14 after his best game; lean moves from sell to hold because there's nothing to sell at 209.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.7
    Above repl.
    +4.3
    Wks 15–17
    13.9
    Games
    10
    dogwater →
  28. 28QBJustin HerbertLAC · @SettytsSell14.0-1.0
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 12.2, likely 7.3–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 4–20.6
    3. Week 9: expected 14.1, likely 8.4–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.8
    4. Week 10: expected 13.7, likely 8.2–18.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.5–23.1
    5. Week 11: expected 14.4, likely 8.7–19.3, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.4
    6. Week 12: expected 13.3, likely 8–17.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.4–22.5
    7. Week 13: expected 14.2, likely 8.5–19, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24
    8. Week 14: expected 15.6, likely 9.4–20.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.1–26.4
    9. Week 15: expected 13.1, likely 7.9–17.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–22.2
    10. Week 16: expected 16.5, likely 9.9–22.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–27.9
    11. Week 17: expected 12.8, likely 7.7–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–21.6
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 22 of 37 for 204 yards, no TDs and a pick with five carries for 26 yards (13.15 in our scoring). He's 12.7 ppg, hasn't topped 17.6 all season, and the Chargers' line is still banged up. I cut him from 15 to 14, far under Sleeper's 18.2, which drops him to tier 5. Week 7 bye. FantasyCalc's 2,559 still pays for the name; Settyts should sell to a believer.

    Why not the projection (18.2) 14 per game, far under Sleeper's 18.2: 12.7 ppg through six games.

    What changed Tier 4 to 5 and ppg 15 to 14 after another TD-less game.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.7
    Above repl.
    +4.3
    Wks 15–17
    14.1
    Games
    10
    WALLAHI on the Beat →
  29. 29QBBaker MayfieldTB · @somickeyHold16.0-0.5
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 7.3, likely 0–14.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.3 (questionable)
    3. Week 9: expected 17.2, likely 10.3–23.1, 10th–90th percentile 5.7–29.1
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 19.8, likely 11.9–26.5, 10th–90th percentile 6.5–33.4
    6. Week 12: expected 15.1, likely 9.1–20.2, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.5
    7. Week 13: expected 16.2, likely 9.7–21.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.3
    8. Week 14: expected 16.1, likely 9.6–21.5, 10th–90th percentile 5.3–27.1
    9. Week 15: expected 16.6, likely 10–22.3, 10th–90th percentile 5.5–28.1
    10. Week 16: expected 14.6, likely 8.8–19.6, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.7
    11. Week 17: expected 14.1, likely 8.5–18.9, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–23.9
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Missed a third game in Week 6 with the dislocated thumb after not practicing (source: thefantasyfootballers.com). Sleeper doesn't project him for Week 7, with Jalon Daniels starting, so I make Week 8 the coin flip. He was 14.2 ppg before the injury, so I trim him from 16.5 to 16, under Sleeper's 17.4. Week 10 bye. At 356 there's nothing to sell; somickey holds for the second half.

    Why not the projection (17.4) 16 per game, under Sleeper's 17.4: 14.2 ppg before the thumb, and a throwing-hand injury lingers.

    What changed Week 7 dropped as a coin flip (Sleeper doesn't project him) and Week 8 added; ppg trimmed from 16.5 to 16.

    Tier
    5
    Per week
    12.5
    Above repl.
    +4.1
    Wks 15–17
    15.1
    Games
    8.5
    somickey →
  30. 30QBJameis WinstonNYG · @PredjsHold14.0-3.0
    1. Week 7: expected 13.0, likely 7.8–17.4, 10th–90th percentile 4.3–21.9
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 12.7, likely 7.6–17, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–21.4
    4. Week 10: expected 17.0, likely 10.2–22.7, 10th–90th percentile 5.6–28.7
    5. Week 11: expected 12.6, likely 7.5–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 4.1–21.2
    6. Week 12: expected 14.3, likely 8.6–19.1, 10th–90th percentile 4.7–24.1
    7. Week 13: expected 12.8, likely 7.7–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 4.2–21.7
    8. Week 14: expected 6.0, likely 0–12.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–17.4 (questionable)
    9. Week 15: expected 6.5, likely 0–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.9 (questionable)
    10. Week 16: expected 8.5, likely 0–17.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–24.6 (questionable)
    11. Week 17: expected 8.0, likely 0–16.3, 10th–90th percentile 0–23.3 (questionable)
    Points by week, 0–30. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 against New Orleans was 14 of 26 for 152 yards, a TD and two picks (10.05 in our scoring), and he played 46 of 77 snaps while J.J. McCarthy's package grew (McCarthy threw for 243 yards on 21 attempts). Harbaugh has said not using McCarthy would be negligent (source: newsweek.com). Fewer snaps mean fewer points even if he keeps the job, so I cut him from 17 to 14 and keep Weeks 14-17 as coin flips. Week 8 bye. At 361 he's a SUPER_FLEX body for Predjs.

    Why not the projection (15.5) 14 per game, under Sleeper's 15.5: McCarthy is taking a third of the snaps.

    What changed Tier 5 to 6 and ppg 17 to 14 after a two-pick game in which McCarthy took a big share of the snaps.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.1
    Above repl.
    +1.7
    Wks 15–17
    7.7
    Games
    8
    Coked up Dakshots →
  31. 31QBTanner McKeePHI · @somickeyHold15.5new
    1. Week 7: expected 16.4, likely 9.8–22, 10th–90th percentile 5.4–27.7
    2. Week 8: expected 17.8, likely 10.7–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.1
    3. Week 9: expected 15.3, likely 9.2–20.5, 10th–90th percentile 5–25.8
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: expected 14.6, likely 8.7–19.5, 10th–90th percentile 4.8–24.6
    6. Week 12: expected 8.4, likely 0–17.1, 10th–90th percentile 0–24.4 (questionable)
    7. Week 13: expected 9.1, likely 0–18.6, 10th–90th percentile 0–26.5 (questionable)
    8. Week 14: expected 7.5, likely 0–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.9 (questionable)
    9. Week 15: expected 6.4, likely 0–13, 10th–90th percentile 0–18.6 (questionable)
    10. Week 16: expected 7.3, likely 0–15, 10th–90th percentile 0–21.4 (questionable)
    11. Week 17: expected 6.8, likely 0–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 0–19.8 (questionable)
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    New to the board: started Week 6 for Philadelphia after Jalen Hurts was ruled out with a blood clot in his calf, and went 26 of 45 for 215 yards and a TD (16.3 in our scoring) (source: thefantasyfootballers.com). There's no timetable for Hurts (source: click2houston.com), so McKee should start at least through Week 11 (Week 10 bye), and I make Weeks 12-17 coin flips in case Hurts returns. 45 attempts keep the first downs coming. At 310 he's a cheap SUPER_FLEX starter for somickey while the job lasts.

    Why not the projection (16.0) Weeks 12-17 questionable because Hurts could return from the blood clot; 15.5 per game as the starter, near Sleeper's 16.

    What changed New to the board as Philadelphia's starter while Hurts is out.

    Tier
    6
    Per week
    10.0
    Above repl.
    +1.6
    Wks 15–17
    6.8
    Games
    7
    somickey →
  32. 32QBDeshaun WatsonCLE · @skollurSell15.0-2.0
    1. Week 7: expected 19.1, likely 11.5–25.6, 10th–90th percentile 6.3–32.3
    2. Week 8: expected 17.6, likely 10.6–23.6, 10th–90th percentile 5.8–29.8
    3. Week 9: expected 17.8, likely 10.7–23.9, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.1
    4. Week 10: expected 17.8, likely 10.7–23.8, 10th–90th percentile 5.9–30.1
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 2.6, likely 1.6–3.5, 10th–90th percentile 0.9–4.5
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected
    9. Week 15: bye or not projected
    10. Week 16: bye or not projected
    11. Week 17: bye or not projected
    Points by week, 0–35. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was 16 of 26 for 164 yards and no TDs with eight carries for 29 yards (13.3 in our scoring), his third straight game under 16. Sleeper hands the job to Shedeur Sanders from Week 12, so he has four projected starts (Weeks 7-10) and nothing in the playoffs. I cut him from 17 to 15. His per-week value is tier 8, but I keep him tier 7, one up, because those four starts cover bye weeks. FantasyCalc's 541 is more than that's worth; skollur should sell.

    Why not the projection (14.4) 15 per game, above Sleeper's 14.4: the carries give him a floor, but three straight weeks under 16.

    What changed Tier 6 to 7 and ppg 17 to 15 after a third straight weak game.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    6.8
    Above repl.
    -1.6
    Wks 15–17
    0.0
    Games
    5
    JSN’s backpack →
  33. 33QBJ.J. McCarthyNYG · @PredjsHold6.0+6.0
    1. Week 7: expected 5.7, likely 3.4–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–9.6
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 6.0, likely 3.6–8, 10th–90th percentile 2–10.1
    4. Week 10: expected 6.0, likely 3.6–8, 10th–90th percentile 2–10.1
    5. Week 11: expected 5.7, likely 3.4–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–9.6
    6. Week 12: expected 7.2, likely 4.3–9.6, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–12.2
    7. Week 13: expected 5.7, likely 3.4–7.6, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–9.6
    8. Week 14: expected 5.9, likely 3.5–7.8, 10th–90th percentile 1.9–9.9
    9. Week 15: expected 6.0, likely 3.6–8, 10th–90th percentile 2–10.1
    10. Week 16: expected 7.4, likely 4.4–9.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–12.4
    11. Week 17: expected 6.6, likely 4–8.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–11.2
    Points by week, 0–15. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 was a real role: 11 of 21 for 243 yards, a TD, a pick and two runs for 26 yards on 31 of 77 snaps (21.45 in our scoring), as Harbaugh said not using his package would be negligent (source: newsweek.com). Sleeper still projects him as a backup at 0.4, but a 30-40% snap share is worth something, and he's one bad Winston game from starting. I put him at 6 per game with upside, so tier 7, one up for the starting chance. Predjs should hold him now, not drop him.

    Why not the projection (0.4) 6 per game, far above Sleeper's 0.4: he took 31 snaps and scored 21.45 in Week 6 in a package role Sleeper doesn't project.

    What changed Tier 8 to 7, ppg 0 to 6 and lean sell to hold after a 21.45-point package role in Week 6.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    5.7
    Above repl.
    -2.7
    Wks 15–17
    6.7
    Games
    10
    Coked up Dakshots →
  34. 34QBJalon DanielsTB · @somickeyHold14.0-2.0
    1. Week 7: expected 14.0, likely 8.4–18.7, 10th–90th percentile 4.6–23.6
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: bye or not projected
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: bye or not projected
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected
    9. Week 15: bye or not projected
    10. Week 16: bye or not projected
    11. Week 17: bye or not projected
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Week 6 against Pittsburgh was 22 of 43 for 164 yards, a TD and two picks plus four runs for 39 yards (15.3 in our scoring), his third start in a row while Mayfield's thumb heals. Sleeper projects him only for Week 7, and Mayfield could be back in Week 8. I cut him to 14, under Sleeper's 15.3. A one-week fill-in for somickey.

    Why not the projection (15.3) 14 per game, under Sleeper's 15.3: 12.3 ppg and two picks in Week 6.

    What changed ppg cut from 16 to 14 after a two-pick game.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    1.3
    Above repl.
    -7.1
    Wks 15–17
    0.0
    Games
    1
    somickey →
  35. 35QBJalen HurtsPHI · @arireddyHold0.0-18.5
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: bye or not projected
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: bye or not projected
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected
    9. Week 15: bye or not projected
    10. Week 16: bye or not projected
    11. Week 17: bye or not projected
    Expected points by week, 0–10.

    Missed Week 6 with a superficial blood clot in his calf after a follow-up ultrasound showed the clot had moved, and the Eagles gave no timetable (source: click2houston.com); Sleeper now tags him IR and projects nothing. He was 19.7 ppg and fading before it. Until there's a return date he's worth nothing on this board; arireddy holds and hopes for a late-season return, since there's no market for him.

    What changed Tier 4 to 8 and ppg 18.5 to 0: out with a blood clot, on IR with no timetable.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    0.0
    Above repl.
    -8.4
    Wks 15–17
    0.0
    Games
    0
    dogwater →
  36. 36QBTyler HuntleyBAL · not rostered nowHold0.0new
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: bye or not projected
    4. Week 10: bye or not projected
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: bye or not projected
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: bye or not projected
    9. Week 15: bye or not projected
    10. Week 16: bye or not projected
    11. Week 17: bye or not projected
    Expected points by week, 0–10.

    New to the board: started Weeks 5 and 6 for Baltimore with Lamar Jackson out, scoring 29.55 and 15.1 (19 of 31 for 165 yards and a TD with five carries in Week 6). Lamar is day-to-day for Week 7 (source: thebanner.com), and Sleeper projects Huntley for nothing. He's a pure handcuff: worth a start only if Lamar sits again. somickey holds him at 65.

    What changed New to the board as Lamar's backup after two starts.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    0.0
    Above repl.
    -8.4
    Wks 15–17
    0.0
    Games
    0
    somickey →

The analyst's notes

The biggest change this week isn't a player: it's replacement level. nikash dropped T.J. Hockenson, and at 18.5 a game the best free-agent tight end now beats most of the league's starters. Only Brock Bowers (29.5), Trey McBride (29), Isaiah Likely (24.5), Sam LaPorta and George Kittle clear him by more than a point a week. Tyler Warren, Juwan Johnson, Harold Fannin, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts and Colston Loveland are all at or below replacement, and most of them fall two or three tiers without their ppg moving much. Receivers go the other way: with Jalen Coker rostered by Predjs, the best free-agent WR is Malik Washington at 13.7, two points lower, so most starting receivers move up a tier.

Injuries did the rest. Davante Adams got hurt on the final drive against Arizona and McVay says 6–10 weeks, so he's out Weeks 7–12 and questionable for 13. Jalen Hurts missed Week 6 with a blood clot in his calf, is on IR with no timetable, and drops from Tier 4 to 8; Tanner McKee (16.3 in his first start) joins the board at 15.5. Breece Hall is out again in Week 7 and questionable in Week 8. Josh Jacobs is the good news: the NFL took him off the exempt list and he's eligible from Week 7, so he goes from Tier 8 to 6.

In our scoring, three quarterback slots still make every starting QB worth something. Jared Goff and Bryce Young are Tier 2 at about 25 a game with no bye left, Malik Willis is a starter the market prices like a free agent, and even J.J. McCarthy gets 6 a game for a package role that scored 21.45 in Week 6.

Big moves

Risers.

  • Malik Nabers (17.5 → 21, Tier 7 → 5): 12 catches, 165 yards and two TDs (31.85), his third straight 25-point game. The Giants' QB change from Jameis Winston to McCarthy is the risk.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Tier 2 → 1, RB1 at 31): nothing changed but the calendar. The bye is behind him.
  • Drake Maye (22.5 → 24, Tier 3 → 2): a third straight game over 27.
  • Trevor Lawrence (23 → 24.5): 34.15 in Week 6, the best QB score in our league. A buy at 4,992.
  • Chuba Hubbard (20.5 → 21.5, RB7 → RB4): no bye left and Jonathon Brooks out into November.
  • Puka Nacua (25.5 → 26, Tier 4 → 3): Adams' targets go to him.
  • Justin Jefferson (Tier 7 → 5) and Ja'Marr Chase (Tier 5 → 4): same ppg, lower WR replacement.
  • Josh Jacobs (13.5 → 14.5, Tier 8 → 6): back from the exempt list.
  • New: Jalen Coker (16, Tier 6, buy), Tanner McKee (15.5, Tier 6), Kyle Pitts (16 after 31.0, still Tier 8 against the new TE bar), Braelon Allen and Blake Corum (Tier 7, buys as handcuffs).

Fallers.

  • Jalen Hurts (18.5 → 0, Tier 4 → 8): blood clot, IR, no timetable.
  • Davante Adams (out Weeks 7–12): still 14.5 a game when he plays, which makes him a playoff stash.
  • Cam Skattebo (12.5 → 7, Tier 7 → 8): six snaps and no touches after his fourth fumble; Najee Harris has the job.
  • Bijan Robinson (27.5 → 26.5, Tier 2 → 3) and Derrick Henry (24 → 23, Tier 3 → 4): 8.85 and 6.15 in Week 6, and Henry lost a fumble.
  • Tyler Warren (Tier 4 → 7): the groin injury kept him out of Week 6, and Week 7 is questionable.
  • Juwan Johnson (19.5 → 17.5, Tier 5 → 8), Harold Fannin (16.5 → 14.5) and Mark Andrews (16 → 13.5): low ppg and the higher TE bar.
  • Jameis Winston (17 → 14): two interceptions and benched for McCarthy. Dak Prescott (23.5 → 22, Tier 2 → 3): four interceptions in two weeks.

Where we disagree with the market

Market too high.

  • Lamar Jackson (7,610, sell): FantasyCalc's second-priciest QB has missed two games with the ankle and is a coin flip for Week 7. At 26 a game he's worth about what Goff and Young are here, and they cost half as much.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (8,456) and Justin Jefferson (5,642), sell: priced as top receivers, but Chase is at 17.1 a game with two games under 7, and Jefferson plays in a run-first offense at 18.
  • George Kittle (3,302), Tyler Warren (2,448), Tucker Kraft (1,533) and Colston Loveland (1,376), sell: all priced as starting tight ends, and only Kittle beats the 18.5 free-agent bar here, by about a point a week.
  • Saquon Barkley (2,672) and Christian McCaffrey (7,328): Barkley averaged 7.1 here before the hamstring. McCaffrey's 31.95 on Monday was his best game, and at 22.7 a game he's priced above James Cook and Jonathan Taylor for about the same output. Hold McCaffrey, sell Barkley.

Market too low.

  • Jared Goff (4,163) and Bryce Young (3,223), buy: Tier 2 quarterbacks at about 25 a game with no bye left, priced like QB2s.
  • Chuba Hubbard (3,926), Bhayshul Tuten (2,743) and Ollie Gordon (947), buy: lead backs, and our carry and first-down scoring pays for volume.
  • Jalen Coker (1,959) and Matthew Golden (2,761), buy: Tier 6 starters priced like depth. Coker led Carolina with 13 targets in his return.
  • Malik Willis (91), buy: Miami's starter, about 6.6 points a week above a free agent in a league with three QB slots.

How it works

Every rostered player gets a week-by-week projection in our league's scoring for the rest of the season (TE premium and first-down bonuses, carries, return yards, the lot). The starting point is Sleeper's weekly projections run through our scoring. The analyst then sets how good the player is when he plays (ppg) and which weeks he'll miss, and has to say why whenever the call differs from the projection.

Rank is by points above replacement: what the player adds per week across the rest of the season, byes and missed weeks included, minus what the best free agent at that position would give you. With three QB-eligible slots and almost no free-agent QBs, that is why quarterbacks sit so high. Anything that moved since last week comes with a reason. Trades are judged by rebuilding both teams' best lineups every remaining week.

Each week's range comes from history: every player-week of the previous season scored in our settings, comparing what players actually scored with what they were projected to score, by position and projection level. The analyst's call sets the middle, and a questionable week is a coin flip between zero and a normal game.

Market prices quoted in takes are FantasyCalc redraft trade values (10 teams, 2 QB, PPR). Projections: Sleeper weekly projections, Weeks 7–17, scored with our league settings (npm run score); fetched 2026-10-20.