Dying on ImpactEst. 2021 · 2026 season

Week 6 boardUpdated Tue, Oct 20 · Weeks 7–17

Week 6 Player Board: Hockenson's Release Lifts the TE Bar to 18.5, Malik Nabers Jumps to 21

All 140 rostered players valued for Weeks 7–17. T.J. Hockenson's release makes the best free-agent TE worth 18.5 a game, which drops every tight end but Bowers, McBride, Likely, LaPorta and Kittle to replacement level or below. Malik Nabers rises from 17.5 to 21 after three straight 25-point games, Davante Adams is out Weeks 7–12, Jalen Hurts is on IR with a blood clot, and Josh Jacobs is back from the exempt list at 14.5. How it works

Replacement (best free agent, pts/week): QB 8.4 · RB 11.7 · WR 13.7 · TE 18.5 · K 10.3

  1. 1KSpencer ShraderIND · @skollurHold11.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 10.7, likely 5.4–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–20.9
    2. Week 8: expected 11.3, likely 5.8–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.1
    3. Week 9: expected 11.3, likely 5.8–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.1
    4. Week 10: expected 12.4, likely 6.3–16.8, 10th–90th percentile 3.1–24.3
    5. Week 11: expected 11.3, likely 5.8–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.1
    6. Week 12: expected 11.3, likely 5.8–15.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.1
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 11.7, likely 6–15.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.9–23
    9. Week 15: expected 11.8, likely 6–16.1, 10th–90th percentile 3–23.2
    10. Week 16: expected 12.7, likely 6.5–17.2, 10th–90th percentile 3.2–24.8
    11. Week 17: expected 10.8, likely 5.5–14.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–21.2
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Nine points in Week 6 after 28 in Week 5; 17.3 a game is the best of any kicker, built on 50+ yard bonuses. We stay at 11.5, but the K replacement level rose to 10.3, so with a Week 13 bye he's only at replacement now. Still the best kicker on the board.

    Why not the projection (10.8) Above Sleeper's 10.8: long-range bonuses have been steady all season.

    What changed Tier 6 to 7 with ppg unchanged: the K replacement level rose from 9.3 to 10.3.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    10.5
    Above repl.
    +0.2
    Wks 15–17
    11.8
    Games
    10
    JSN’s backpack →
  2. 2KKa'imi FairbairnHOU · @tsinghHold10.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 11.1, likely 5.7–15.1, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–21.7
    2. Week 8: bye or not projected
    3. Week 9: expected 10.5, likely 5.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.5
    4. Week 10: expected 10.1, likely 5.2–13.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–19.9
    5. Week 11: expected 10.5, likely 5.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.5
    6. Week 12: expected 10.5, likely 5.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.5
    7. Week 13: expected 10.5, likely 5.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.5
    8. Week 14: expected 11.0, likely 5.6–15, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–21.6
    9. Week 15: expected 11.3, likely 5.7–15.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.8–22.1
    10. Week 16: expected 10.5, likely 5.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.5
    11. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 4.9–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.7
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Eleven points in Week 6, including the walk-off 49-yarder in the 34-31 London win over Jacksonville (source: thefantasyfootballers.com). 13.0 a game for the season. We stay at 10.5, about replacement once the Week 8 bye is counted.

    Why not the projection (9.7) Above Sleeper's 9.7: Houston keeps reaching field-goal range, 13.0 a game.

    What changed Tier 6 to 7 with ppg unchanged: the K replacement level rose from 9.3 to 10.3.

    Tier
    7
    Per week
    9.6
    Above repl.
    -0.7
    Wks 15–17
    10.4
    Games
    10
    Tua deez nuts →
  3. 3KCam LittleJAX · @arireddyHold10.0+0.2
    1. Week 7: bye or not projected
    2. Week 8: expected 10.2, likely 5.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20
    3. Week 9: expected 9.7, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.1
    4. Week 10: expected 9.7, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.1
    5. Week 11: expected 9.7, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.1
    6. Week 12: expected 9.7, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.1
    7. Week 13: expected 9.7, likely 5–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.1
    8. Week 14: expected 10.2, likely 5.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20
    9. Week 15: expected 10.4, likely 5.3–14.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.6–20.4
    10. Week 16: expected 10.7, likely 5.4–14.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.7–20.9
    11. Week 17: expected 10.2, likely 5.2–13.9, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–20
    Points by week, 0–25. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    13.5 in Week 6 and 11.5 a game. Jacksonville is on bye in Week 7, so arireddy needs a fill-in; across the rest of the season he's just under replacement.

    What changed Tier 7 to 8: ppg nudged 9.8 to 10, but the K replacement level rose to 10.3 and the Week 7 bye counts against him.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    9.1
    Above repl.
    -1.2
    Wks 15–17
    10.4
    Games
    10
    dogwater →
  4. 4KTyler LoopBAL · @ShukyHold9.5new
    1. Week 7: expected 10.1, likely 5.1–13.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–19.8
    2. Week 8: expected 9.2, likely 4.7–12.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18
    3. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.4
    4. Week 10: expected 9.8, likely 5–13.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.5–19.3
    5. Week 11: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.4
    6. Week 12: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.4
    7. Week 13: bye or not projected
    8. Week 14: expected 9.7, likely 4.9–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19
    9. Week 15: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.4
    10. Week 16: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.4
    11. Week 17: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.4
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    Three points in Week 6 in Baltimore's 13-10 loss to Cleveland, with Lamar Jackson out again (sources: nbcsports.com, nbcsports.com). He's at 12.3 a game for the season, so we're above Sleeper's 8.7, but under replacement with a Week 13 bye until Jackson returns.

    Why not the projection (8.7) Above Sleeper's 8.7: 12.3 a game through six.

    What changed New to the board: Shuky's kicker, 12.3 a game so far but with a backup QB offense.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    8.7
    Above repl.
    -1.6
    Wks 15–17
    9.4
    Games
    10
    To infinity and bijan →
  5. 5KJason MyersSEA · @SettytsHold9.5–
    1. Week 7: expected 9.3, likely 4.8–12.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–18.3
    2. Week 8: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.5
    3. Week 9: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.5
    4. Week 10: expected 9.8, likely 5–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.2
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.5
    7. Week 13: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.5
    8. Week 14: expected 9.8, likely 5–13.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19.2
    9. Week 15: expected 9.4, likely 4.8–12.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.5
    10. Week 16: expected 9.7, likely 4.9–13.2, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–19
    11. Week 17: expected 9.5, likely 4.9–13, 10th–90th percentile 2.4–18.7
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    10.5 in Week 6 and 11.4 a game, most of it from the 26.5 in Week 5. We stay at 9.5, under the new 10.3 replacement with a Week 11 bye; streamable.

    What changed Tier 7 to 8 with ppg unchanged: the K replacement level rose from 9.3 to 10.3.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    8.6
    Above repl.
    -1.7
    Wks 15–17
    9.5
    Games
    10
    WALLAHI on the Beat →
  6. 6KNick FolkATL · @nikashSell8.5new
    1. Week 7: expected 8.6, likely 4.4–11.7, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–16.9
    2. Week 8: expected 8.4, likely 4.3–11.5, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.5
    3. Week 9: expected 8.3, likely 4.2–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.3
    4. Week 10: expected 8.7, likely 4.4–11.8, 10th–90th percentile 2.2–17
    5. Week 11: bye or not projected
    6. Week 12: expected 8.3, likely 4.2–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.3
    7. Week 13: expected 8.3, likely 4.2–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.3
    8. Week 14: expected 8.3, likely 4.2–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.3
    9. Week 15: expected 8.3, likely 4.2–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.3
    10. Week 16: expected 9.1, likely 4.6–12.4, 10th–90th percentile 2.3–17.8
    11. Week 17: expected 8.3, likely 4.2–11.3, 10th–90th percentile 2.1–16.3
    Points by week, 0–20. Box: middle half of likely outcomes. Whiskers: 10th–90th percentile. Line: median.

    One point in Week 6 and 7.8 a game, the lowest of any rostered kicker. Atlanta has the Week 11 bye. Below replacement; nikash should stream.

    What changed New to the board: nikash's kicker, 7.8 a game, well under the 10.3 replacement.

    Tier
    8
    Per week
    7.7
    Above repl.
    -2.6
    Wks 15–17
    8.6
    Games
    10
    The Naughty Betas →

Rostered since this board was written (not ranked yet): Will Reichard (@somickey), Chase McLaughlin (@Predjs).

The analyst's notes

The biggest change this week isn't a player: it's replacement level. nikash dropped T.J. Hockenson, and at 18.5 a game the best free-agent tight end now beats most of the league's starters. Only Brock Bowers (29.5), Trey McBride (29), Isaiah Likely (24.5), Sam LaPorta and George Kittle clear him by more than a point a week. Tyler Warren, Juwan Johnson, Harold Fannin, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts and Colston Loveland are all at or below replacement, and most of them fall two or three tiers without their ppg moving much. Receivers go the other way: with Jalen Coker rostered by Predjs, the best free-agent WR is Malik Washington at 13.7, two points lower, so most starting receivers move up a tier.

Injuries did the rest. Davante Adams got hurt on the final drive against Arizona and McVay says 6–10 weeks, so he's out Weeks 7–12 and questionable for 13. Jalen Hurts missed Week 6 with a blood clot in his calf, is on IR with no timetable, and drops from Tier 4 to 8; Tanner McKee (16.3 in his first start) joins the board at 15.5. Breece Hall is out again in Week 7 and questionable in Week 8. Josh Jacobs is the good news: the NFL took him off the exempt list and he's eligible from Week 7, so he goes from Tier 8 to 6.

In our scoring, three quarterback slots still make every starting QB worth something. Jared Goff and Bryce Young are Tier 2 at about 25 a game with no bye left, Malik Willis is a starter the market prices like a free agent, and even J.J. McCarthy gets 6 a game for a package role that scored 21.45 in Week 6.

Big moves

Risers.

  • Malik Nabers (17.5 → 21, Tier 7 → 5): 12 catches, 165 yards and two TDs (31.85), his third straight 25-point game. The Giants' QB change from Jameis Winston to McCarthy is the risk.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Tier 2 → 1, RB1 at 31): nothing changed but the calendar. The bye is behind him.
  • Drake Maye (22.5 → 24, Tier 3 → 2): a third straight game over 27.
  • Trevor Lawrence (23 → 24.5): 34.15 in Week 6, the best QB score in our league. A buy at 4,992.
  • Chuba Hubbard (20.5 → 21.5, RB7 → RB4): no bye left and Jonathon Brooks out into November.
  • Puka Nacua (25.5 → 26, Tier 4 → 3): Adams' targets go to him.
  • Justin Jefferson (Tier 7 → 5) and Ja'Marr Chase (Tier 5 → 4): same ppg, lower WR replacement.
  • Josh Jacobs (13.5 → 14.5, Tier 8 → 6): back from the exempt list.
  • New: Jalen Coker (16, Tier 6, buy), Tanner McKee (15.5, Tier 6), Kyle Pitts (16 after 31.0, still Tier 8 against the new TE bar), Braelon Allen and Blake Corum (Tier 7, buys as handcuffs).

Fallers.

  • Jalen Hurts (18.5 → 0, Tier 4 → 8): blood clot, IR, no timetable.
  • Davante Adams (out Weeks 7–12): still 14.5 a game when he plays, which makes him a playoff stash.
  • Cam Skattebo (12.5 → 7, Tier 7 → 8): six snaps and no touches after his fourth fumble; Najee Harris has the job.
  • Bijan Robinson (27.5 → 26.5, Tier 2 → 3) and Derrick Henry (24 → 23, Tier 3 → 4): 8.85 and 6.15 in Week 6, and Henry lost a fumble.
  • Tyler Warren (Tier 4 → 7): the groin injury kept him out of Week 6, and Week 7 is questionable.
  • Juwan Johnson (19.5 → 17.5, Tier 5 → 8), Harold Fannin (16.5 → 14.5) and Mark Andrews (16 → 13.5): low ppg and the higher TE bar.
  • Jameis Winston (17 → 14): two interceptions and benched for McCarthy. Dak Prescott (23.5 → 22, Tier 2 → 3): four interceptions in two weeks.

Where we disagree with the market

Market too high.

  • Lamar Jackson (7,610, sell): FantasyCalc's second-priciest QB has missed two games with the ankle and is a coin flip for Week 7. At 26 a game he's worth about what Goff and Young are here, and they cost half as much.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (8,456) and Justin Jefferson (5,642), sell: priced as top receivers, but Chase is at 17.1 a game with two games under 7, and Jefferson plays in a run-first offense at 18.
  • George Kittle (3,302), Tyler Warren (2,448), Tucker Kraft (1,533) and Colston Loveland (1,376), sell: all priced as starting tight ends, and only Kittle beats the 18.5 free-agent bar here, by about a point a week.
  • Saquon Barkley (2,672) and Christian McCaffrey (7,328): Barkley averaged 7.1 here before the hamstring. McCaffrey's 31.95 on Monday was his best game, and at 22.7 a game he's priced above James Cook and Jonathan Taylor for about the same output. Hold McCaffrey, sell Barkley.

Market too low.

  • Jared Goff (4,163) and Bryce Young (3,223), buy: Tier 2 quarterbacks at about 25 a game with no bye left, priced like QB2s.
  • Chuba Hubbard (3,926), Bhayshul Tuten (2,743) and Ollie Gordon (947), buy: lead backs, and our carry and first-down scoring pays for volume.
  • Jalen Coker (1,959) and Matthew Golden (2,761), buy: Tier 6 starters priced like depth. Coker led Carolina with 13 targets in his return.
  • Malik Willis (91), buy: Miami's starter, about 6.6 points a week above a free agent in a league with three QB slots.

How it works

Every rostered player gets a week-by-week projection in our league's scoring for the rest of the season (TE premium and first-down bonuses, carries, return yards, the lot). The starting point is Sleeper's weekly projections run through our scoring. The analyst then sets how good the player is when he plays (ppg) and which weeks he'll miss, and has to say why whenever the call differs from the projection.

Rank is by points above replacement: what the player adds per week across the rest of the season, byes and missed weeks included, minus what the best free agent at that position would give you. With three QB-eligible slots and almost no free-agent QBs, that is why quarterbacks sit so high. Anything that moved since last week comes with a reason. Trades are judged by rebuilding both teams' best lineups every remaining week.

Each week's range comes from history: every player-week of the previous season scored in our settings, comparing what players actually scored with what they were projected to score, by position and projection level. The analyst's call sets the middle, and a questionable week is a coin flip between zero and a normal game.

Market prices quoted in takes are FantasyCalc redraft trade values (10 teams, 2 QB, PPR). Projections: Sleeper weekly projections, Weeks 7–17, scored with our league settings (npm run score); fetched 2026-10-20.